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Johannes Bollen

Johannes Bollen. Macro-Economic impacts of post-2012 climate policies based on [1] Caps and Fences [2] Thesis: A Trade view on Climate Change Policies, A Multi-Region Multi-Sector Approach Publications can also be found at: www.mnp.nl Email: jc.bollen@mnp.nl.

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Johannes Bollen

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  1. Johannes Bollen Macro-Economic impacts of post-2012 climate policiesbased on[1] Caps and Fences [2] Thesis: A Trade view on Climate Change Policies, A Multi-Region Multi-Sector ApproachPublications can also be found at: www.mnp.nlEmail: jc.bollen@mnp.nl

  2. Costs on 20 Celsius compliance are • Minimal when GLOBAL permit trading • Costs increase with smaller coalitions CDM in post-2012 will • Lower costs in non-global coalitions • But danger of leakage • can be lowered through appropriate policy design

  3. No policy Annex I non Annex I Targets Emissions Emissions Domestic Permit Imports -30% 1990 2020 Global IET: Targets more stringent than emission reductions in EU Bron: MNP 2005

  4. Costs minimal when global IET, and increase (!!) in non-global coalitions 2.0 2 Celsius EU objective 0 1.5 Annex I Cases Global Cases Global Macro-economic costs in 2020 (%NI) 1.0 EU unilateral Cases RA30 - - C C UA30 - - C C RG30 0.5 0.0 Bron: MNP 2005 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Global Emission Reduction ( Tg CO2)

  5. CDM will lower the costs in non-global coalitions, but ……………… 3,0 Annex I IET + CDM EU-25 Netherlands 2,0 non-Annex I World Macro-economic costs (%NI) 1,0 0,0 Trade price 51 € / t CO2 Trade price 125 € / t CO2 -1,0 Bron: MNP 2005

  6. 40 Lower supply elasticity of coal 30 CDM CDM Leakage rate Higher Substitution electricity and heat 20 CDM restricted 10 CDM-more sectors 0 CDM price discrimination 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 Trade price in € / t CO2 A1 Global IET CDM leads to strong leakages, but lowered through appropriate policy design Bron: MNP 2005

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