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Mean circulation trends Natural modes

Mutual interactions between secular trends and modes of variability in a changing climate Grant Branstator, NCAR Frank Selten, KNMI. Mean circulation trends Natural modes. Dutch Challenge Project. Frank Selten KNMI Henk Dijkstra Univ. Utrecht & CSU. CCSM1.4/T31/x3

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Mean circulation trends Natural modes

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  1. Mutual interactions between secular trends and modes of variability in a changing climateGrant Branstator, NCARFrank Selten, KNMI Mean circulation trends Natural modes

  2. Dutch Challenge Project Frank Selten KNMI Henk Dijkstra Univ. Utrecht & CSU CCSM1.4/T31/x3 Bette Otto-Bliesner Caspar Ammann 1940-2080 scenario 1940-2000: prescribed GHG, sulphate aerosols, solar radiation, volcanic aerosols 2001-2080: business as usual GHG 62 member ensemble differing only in initial state

  3. 5 m 5x10^5 m^2s^-1 0.5 ms^-1

  4. “Circumglobal Waveguide Pattern”

  5. PDFs of Forced Lorenz’ 3-Parameter Model Palmer (1999)

  6. relative entropy

  7. Linear solutions

  8. Summary • Trend in climate change experiment has structure of an intrinsic mode of variability – CWP • The trend results from a linear shift in the planetary wave PDF combined with a rotation that corresponds to a change in the structure of the leading intrinsic pattern • The intrinsic pattern changes are largely a linear reaction to the changing mean circulation Mean circulation trends Natural modes

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