2011 Plans for NOAA’s Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX)

1. 2011 Plans for NOAA’s Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) Shirley Murillo NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division 65th IHC (2011), Miami, FL

2. IFEX Goals • Intended to improve prediction of TC intensity change by: • collecting observations throughout the TC life cycle for model initialization and evaluation • developing and refining measurement technologies for real-time monitoring of TC intensity, structure, and environment • improving understanding of physical processes important in TC intensity change

3. 2011 IFEX Plans • Continue addressing IFEX/HFIP goals • Sustain our partnerships with EMC and NESDIS • Continue TDR missions and real-time Doppler data transmission • Collaborate with NESDIS – Ocean Winds Experiment • Coordinate with 53rd on float/drifter deployments • Strengthen our interactions with NHC • Encourage greater awareness in broader TC community

4. Intensity change is a multi-scale process • Sample TCs and the environment on all scales IFEX 2011 Flight Experiments Atmospheric Scales Micro mm - cm Turbulent m – km Convective 100 m – 5 km Vortex 1 – 100 km Environment 100-10,000 km IFEX Tail Doppler Radar Goal 1 Ocean Winds Goal 2 DWL SUAVE Dry Air Intru Genesis Rapid Int Goal 3 Eye Mix Extra Trop Hur Bndy Lyr Landfall Cloud Phys Ocean Enviro Conv. Micro Turb. Vortex Enviro.

5. Tail Doppler Radar Experiment (TDR)PIs: John Gamache & Vijay Tallapragada (EMC) • Provide a comprehensive wind data set for initialization and evaluation of hurricane models (e.g. HWRF) • Provide data sets to increase understanding of intensity change, using regular, periodic, collection • 2 P-3 Flights per day--on-station time centered on 0, 6, 12, and 18 UTC analysis periods -optimum 3 days of flights in a row starting at tropical depression or maybe pre-depression stage

6. Resulting data analyses from TDR missions • Assimilation development at HRD • Composite storm-structure studies • Observing System Experiments (OSEs) • Evaluation of error characteristics of airborne Doppler data and analyses

7. UAS – Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Experiment (SUAVE) Reusable Instrumented Collapsible Onboard Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Experiment RICO SUAVE PI: Joe Cione MIST Sonde sensor Eyewall GPS antenna and Autopilot SatCom antenna Eyewall • Released from P-3 free–fall AXBT chute • Loiter in the eye or eyewall region in mature storms • Provide high-res near surface obs of (V, P, T and RH)

8. Hurricane PBL Entrainment Flux Module (Option 1) PIs: Jun Zhang and Gary Barnes (UH) Sample the momentum and enthalpy fluxes across the top of the hurricane PBL Module (Option 1) cross section Module (Option 2) constant altitude at ~1.5 km

9. HBL Turbulent Processes Module PIs: Sylvie Lorsolo and Dave Emmitt (Simpson Wea. Assoc.) • Document physical characteristics of small-scale features of the HBL • Estimate their impact on the kinematics and thermodynamics fields of the HBL • Doppler Wind Lidar: Detect winds and aerosols both above (up to ~14 km in the presence of high level cirrus) and below (down to ~100 m above the ocean surface) the aircraft flight level (typically 3-5 km) • Vertical resolution: ~50 m; Horizontal spacing: ~2 km for u, v, and w wind profiles 60 km Option 1: Box transect 60 km GPS sonde locations Option 2: Square-spiral or lawnmower pattern > 30 km

10. Dry Air Intrusion Experiment PI: Jason Dunion Sample the dry air using G-IV and coordinating flight with P-3 Modified G-IV star pattern to emphasize sampling in upshear semicircles/quadrants GPS dropsonde transects across the arc cloud feature (~20 nm spacing)

11. 2011 IFEX Logistics • ~250 hours total for all aircraft • N42RF (P-3) will be available by early June, N43RF available early July, N49RF (G-IV) available early June • Crews available for two-per-day missions starting early July (Tampa and deployments) • Window of Operations = June – early Nov. Thanks!