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Dimitris Potoglou Pavlos S. Kanaroglou

PROCESSUS 2nd International Colloquium on the Behavioural Foundations of Integrated Land-use and Transportation Models: Frameworks, Models and Applications. Potential Demand for Household Alternative Fuelled Vehicles: An Internet Survey Instrument. Dimitris Potoglou Pavlos S. Kanaroglou.

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Dimitris Potoglou Pavlos S. Kanaroglou

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  1. PROCESSUS 2nd International Colloquium on the Behavioural Foundations of Integrated Land-use and Transportation Models: Frameworks, Models and Applications Potential Demand for Household Alternative Fuelled Vehicles: An Internet Survey Instrument Dimitris Potoglou Pavlos S. Kanaroglou Centre for Spatial Analysis School of Geography and Geology McMaster University

  2. Outline • Development Trends in the Automotive Industry • Research Questions / Objectives • Modelling Approach • Data Collection: Internet Survey • Anticipated Outcomes and Next Steps

  3. Development Trends

  4. Research Questions / Objectives • What are the major vehicle attributes and household characteristics influencing vehicle transactions and vehicle-type choice? • What are the major factors and trade-offs of vehicle attributes for switching from conventional to alternative fuelled vehicle technologies? • How can we simulate future vehicle demand allowing for scenario building and policy implications regarding alternative fuelled vehicle technologies?

  5. Modelling Framework

  6. Data Requirements • Revealed (actual) Preferences: • Vehicle transactions and • Vehicle -Type Choices • Stated (hypothetical) Choices: • Hypothetical Vehicle Transactions • Hypothetical Vehicle - Technology/Type Choices

  7. The CIBER-CARS Survey Choice Internet Based Experiment for Research on CARs

  8. Stage 1: Revealed Preferences

  9. Stage 2: Stated Choices Experiment

  10. Stage 2: Experimental Design [2] • Experimental Design: • 413 Orthogonal Main Effects Matrix in 64 Scenarios. • 213 Endpoint and Main Effects and Interactions - within the alternative options - Effects in 64 Scenarios. • Total Design Matrix includes 128 Scenarios. • Out of 128 Scenarios, respondents receive 8 scenarios • 4 are taken from the first 64 scenarios, and • 4 are taken from the second 64 scenarios.

  11. A Stated Choices Exercise

  12. Survey Implementation • Information about the survey was posted on the local intranets of: • The City of Hamilton, and • The Hamilton Health Sciences (short time) • An invitation e-mail was distributed to: • McMaster University Employees, Faculty and Staff • Recipients of the e-mail were asked to forward the message to others living in the study area.

  13. Sample Description • Data collection: • March 21 – April 30, 2005 • 902 respondents participated from all municipalities of Hamilton CMA. • 530 stated that they would buy a vehicle in the next 5 years (stage 2) -> 496 eligible responses. • 496 * 8 exercises = 3968 observations

  14. Response Activity

  15. Spatial Distribution of the Sample

  16. Descriptive Analysis of Vehicle Choices

  17. Anticipated Outcomes and Next Steps • Improve our understanding on how urban households make vehicle-transactions and type-choice decisions. • Estimation of discrete choice models will contribute to the development of a decision making modelling system accounting for both conventional and alternative vehicle technologies. • Simulation results will characterize the role of alternative fuelled vehicles in improving urban air quality.

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