Global Asymmetries And National Space: The Case Of China

1. Global Asymmetries And National Space: The Case Of China Anna jaguaribe

2. Interpretative Premisses: Framework A International economy is an uneven and unequal playing field - developing countries struggle against important asymmetries to gain successful entrance Access to capital, vulnerability to external shocks Concentration of technology rents Under-representation in international institutions which set the rules of governance for the international economy Geopolitical considerations regarding currency supremacies and energy security are an additional frame for global asymmetries

3. InternationalAsymmetries And PolicySpace International asymmetries - global capital Constrains national policy space Limits scope of macroeconomic policy Commodity price fluctuation ;Exchange rates; anti cyclical policies Stress growth and redistribution coalitions Adjustment vs investment debate Condition set up of policy institutions

4. LimitedHistoricalOpportunities Few countries have managed to confront all the asymmetries of the international economy Few have managed to complete industrialization with technological upgrading Some have managed to move into high income bracket and escape some technology rents Most Asian latecomers have done so without changing international coalition of forces.. except China

5. WorkingHypothesis: Framework B • Global capitalism is dynamic, there are national varieties of capitalism responding to diverse economic and political forces • State action shape the rules of engagement for the global political economy - the role of States and National policies in the international arena are on the rise not the opposite • Waves of globalization have altered cycles and conditions for: • capital expansion ---extraction of technology rents ---currency internationalization-energy security-

6. Need For NewTheoreticalReflection There is a dynamic interaction between national and global policy spaces Because of relevant power asymmetries opportunities for entry and exit are always a flux and new entries alter the dynamics of competition—energy—software—communication-- The expansion of the 1990’s was pushed by vast increases in FDI, consumption and the fragmentation of the information technology industry and the spread of open ended technologies changed entry opportunities There is a growingdisparitybetweenmilitary and civiliantechnologicalavenueswithdifferententrylogics

7. China: Major ProtagonistOfThisChange China rises out of a periphery into the top gear while still a mid income country With significant public goods and structural tasks to be performed It does so by first joining Breton Woods Institutions, while creating new regional scenarios and latter expanding the existing system of multilateral institutions Becomes a major financial player in the global economy with its own financial model, altering traditional notions of national limits imposed by global capital

8. China Today

9. Science and TechnologyIndicators Source: NationalScienceBoard, 2018 Digest – 2016 Data

10. TheVariousSteps Progressive dismantling of entry impediments: • Stocking large reserves, enlarging trade networks expanding remimbi • Manufacturing hub with selective strategic and comparative advantage for production and service sectors • Using open ended technologies to build a large communication and information industry exploiting its large market as experimental ground • Investment program in infrastructure which pushed experimentation and technology advancement • Moving global by using accumulated advantages and large reserves

11. Why Does China Differ • State and market evolve together • Savings and investment higher than most Asian miracles • Exports and reserves a ticket for autonomy • Planning and public finance create a special environment for long term growth and risk protection --policy convergence --avoid short-long term trap • Sidestepping the hegemonic umbrella into power

12. MultipleNationalStrategies • Solving simultaneous equations • Market underdevelopment and failure coexist • Indigenous capacities and global integration • Infant and strategic industries • Decentralizing and centralizing governance tools determine policy spaces :Experimentation — changing policy mix • Structured consensus - facilitates coherence of objectives and policy tools • Leading Groups circunvent policy fragmentation • Syncronizing national objectives with global opportunities – adapting to WTO and changing the investment environment through OBOR

13. Players Of China Global

14. NewInternationalInstruments NewDevelopmentBank – July, 2014 AsiaInfrastructureInvestmentBank – October, 2014 BRICS Contigency Reserve Arrangement – July, 2014 Regional ComprehensiveEconomicPartnership China InternationalPayment System – Fall, 2014 Universal CreditRatingGroup – June, 2014 China UnionPay – 2002

15. WhatChanges In TheInternationalScenario Coexistence of players with different financing systems, models of governance- Change in traditionalasymmetriesof capital, currencies and technologyrents Public goods, innovation and security tied in the same agenda Technology priorities and dynamics of innovation vary and changes scenarios of international competition Competition for value added increases Pressure for global public goods may change how we conceive dynamics and metrics of innovation New brief open window for diversity end of uni-linear catch up theories

16. China NationalIssues Cyclesofconcentration and decentralizationofdecisionmakingcanprovokefrictions Nationalrebalancingcoupledwithlargescalereformofproductionfactors: China 2025 Publicgoods, welfare and innovation agenda tied Global investment drive and B&Rinitiative, a very big bet in anuncertainpoliticalterritory Weightofinvestment policies canoutweightregulatory and participatoryissues