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RSS - 1 May 2014 Beyond 2011 - where next? England and Wales “Too soon to scrap the census” Ian Cope Director of Population and Demography, ONS. Contents. Phase 1 of B2011 Programme The admin linking work done The public consultation Skinner Review National Statistician/UKSA recommendations

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  1. RSS - 1 May 2014Beyond 2011 - where next?England and Wales“Too soon to scrap the census”Ian CopeDirector of Population and Demography, ONS

  2. Contents • Phase 1 of B2011 Programme • The admin linking work done • The public consultation • Skinner Review • National Statistician/UKSA recommendations • Where do we go next • Scope of ongoing programme • High level plan to 2023 • Key enablers (address register, legislation) • Research plans

  3. B2011 programme phase 1 - 2011-14/15 • Identify the best way to provide small area population and socio-demographic statistics in future • Provide a recommendation in September 2014 • underpinned by cost-benefit analysis • high level design for implementation

  4. LA level population estimates using Admin data compared with 2011 Census population estimates (research to date) Admin data method is … More than 13 % lower 8.5% to 13% lower 3.8% to 8.5% lower Within 3.8% 3.8% to 8.5% higher 8.5% to 13% higher More than 13 % higher

  5. Administrative Data Method at OA level Percentage of OAs Percentage difference from 2011 Census Estimates

  6. The approaches we consulted on • A census once a decade • like that conducted in 2011, • but primarily online A census based on administrative data and large annual surveys The consultation ran 23 September to 13 December 2013

  7. External review of methods • Skinner review of statistical methodology – published by ONS 1 November 2014 • Content with move to online census and that ONS understands the issues • On administrative data and survey research • Good work to date • Real potential • Not proven yet – some outstanding issues

  8. London consultation event • Academy of Social Sciences (again) • House of Commons (Portcullis House) • International Longevity Centre UK • British Academy (again) • Manchester consultation event • Privacy Groups • London Treasurers • LA benefits meeting • Equality (EIA) meeting • Demographics User Group • Media Launch Event • London consultation launch event • Manchester consultation launch event • Census Users Research Conference • Commercial users benefits meeting • Inter Departmental Strategy Group (IDSG) • Cardiff consultation launch event • Members of Welsh Assembly briefing • Academy of Social Sciences (approx 20 CEOs and Chief Officers) • Demographics Use Group annual conference • Statistics Suppliers and Users Group (StatSUG) • CLIP (Population Stats Group) • User Advisory Group (Genealogy) run by The National Archive • Royal Geographic Society: Future of small area population statistics • Market Research Society & Census Geographics User Group (commercial users) • DWP analysts & statisticians • Meeting of London Chief Executives (Steering Group meeting) • Social Research Association (Beyond 2011 event for social researchers) • UK Data Forum • Health/Public Health England/HSCIC video meeting arranged by Chris Gibbons • Pre British Academy Meeting with (Ian Diamond, Phil Rees, Mike Murphy, Colin Crouch, Heather Joshi etc) • Equality & Diversity Forum (approx 20 equality & diversity representatives) Events more than 500 people attended events

  9. Public consultation responses • Public Consultation (700+ responses; 444 from individuals and 273 from organisations) * Organisations listed as other include transport organisations, think tanks, consultancies, the emergency services and media

  10. Some of the feedback we had We consider the decennial online census to be the only option able to deliver the statistics required to meet the needs of London government. The ICO has worked with the ONS on a number of occasions and we recognise that the ONS has a strong track record of protecting the personal data from previous censuses. The census is the only source of data that identifies all groups within our population, however small they may be. Both London Councils and the GLA are committed to working closely with the ONS in developing improved population estimates for the capital. The Commissioner has confidence in the ONS’ approach to data protection as demonstrated by previous censuses. ... Without the census to identify these small groups, health services or interventions may not be identified, planned nor provided in adequate numbers and locations.

  11. Consultation feedback (1) • 700+ well considered responses • Recognition of the need for change • Population statistics highly valued • Statistics for small geographic areas and small population groups • Essential to local decision making, policy making and diversity monitoring • Proposed 4% survey alone is insufficient • Value in the census as a historical source

  12. Consultation feedback (2) • Recognise value of greater use of administrative data for more frequent population statistics. • Concern that a decennial census is too important to lose until administrative data quality proven • Support for online Census • but concerns about digital exclusion

  13. National Statistician’s recommendation27 March 2014 • An online census of all households and communal establishments in 2021 with support for those who are unable to complete the census online. AND • Increased use of administrative data and surveys in order to enhance the statistics from the 2021 census and improve annual statistics between censuses. • Make the best use of all available data to provide the population statistics required AND • Offer a springboard to the greater use of administrative data and annual surveys in the future.

  14. Some of the media coverage we had

  15. Public attitudes research – 27 March • Generally positive towards a decennial census • 75% do not object to de-identified admin data being shared with and stored by ONS • any objections largely due to concerns about security / privacy of personal information • 78% trust ONS to protect their data (6% don’t) • When provided with reassurance with regard to security and privacy, there is broad support for ONS reusing admin data to produce statistics • Anonymisation is key to this reassurance

  16. Exciting opportunities Scope of ongoing programme (subject to government formal response)

  17. Three strands of ongoing programme • 2021 Census operation • Planning and development of an online 2021 Census and CCS, etc • 2021 output enhancement • Research into the shape of the population statistics system by 2021, using census, admin and existing survey data • 2031 Census • Future gazing/research into the population statistics system by 2031 • Ensure we aren’t blinkered in our research now

  18. 2021 Census operation strand (1) • 2011 Census widely seen as a success • Internationally, many traditional census taking countries have moved or are moving to online • Canada 54% online response (2011) • Australia 33% (2011) • New Zealand 35% (2011) • ONS planning assumption 60-65% online for 2021

  19. 2021 Census operation strand (2) • Online collection, and implications • digital exclusion, revised field roles etc • Modernisation of field processes • Handheld devices? • Email contact? • Postal reminders? • Use of admin data in the census operation • Field targeting? • Item Imputation? • Person imputation?

  20. 2021 output enhancement strand • Methods for enhancing 2021 Census outputs • eg. adding household income to census outputs using DMP/HMRC data (subject to public and parliamentary consent) • Use of admin data to enhance production of annual population estimates • Including for small areas • Methods for production of more detailed inter-censal annual population characteristics

  21. 2031 Census strand – range of options • ‘Ad hoc, piecemeal linkage’, through to ‘full integration of all sources’ • Key assumption • Annual surveys alone don’t meet user needs • But may be needed by 2031 if scope of admin data has increased sufficiently People Businesses Addresses

  22. Enablers for Admin data Legislation Address Register

  23. Data sharing legislation • SRSA enables some data sharing/linking, but • Slow and cumbersome (2yrs+) • Some sources not accessible (e.g. HMRC, new electoral registration data, universal credit?) • New legislation required • To enable timely access to all required sources • To enable any new surveys to be compulsory • Census Act sufficient for 2021 Census • Census Order and Regulations (2019/2020)

  24. Data Sharing Legislation - Proposals • Cabinet Office leading data sharing work • Research and Statistics • Fraud and Debt • Tailored Public Services. • Research and Statistics covers powers for: • Access to identified administrative data (for ONS) • Access to anonymised data (for the ADRN) • Compulsory household surveys • Open policy process • Datasharing.org.uk • Publish proposals in Autumn

  25. Key enablers: Address Register • Address register is a key plank of all three strands of work • ONS working with Ordnance Survey and Geoplace • ONS funding pilot to improve register of Communal Establishments

  26. 2017 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2016 2015 2014 2012 2013 Planning milestones for the next 10 years Regular outputs update? Census Rehearsal Census Coverage Survey Options research Census topic consultation begins Census Test? Census White Paper Outline Business Case Enhanced Outputs Census Day NS Recommendation Census Order/Regs Review point 2031 approach Census small scale tests Determine role of admin data in 2021 Review admin data progress to 2031 Data sharing White Paper? Admin research

  27. Beyond 2011 Research: Next Steps • Today published: ‘Beyond 2011: ONS Response to Skinner Review’ • Accept all the recommendations • Developing 3yr research programme: • Share at Research Conference (20-21 May) • Joint research with academics, ESRC & others • Publish Research Work Plan in summer 2014 • Research Conference to be held each year • International Review Panel (21-23 May)

  28. Admin data for characteristics? • Selected topics -full list in Paper M12 (published October 2013)

  29. Potential of admin data for characteristics • Four ‘case studies’ published today • Ethnicity • Household estimates • Unemployment estimates • Income Statistics

  30. Comparison of Percentage of Households of Each Size for selected LAs Birmingham Boston Bournemouth Brent Cambridge Camden 5+ 4 3 2 1 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 Cardiff Ceredigion Cheshire East Chesterfield Coventry East Devon 5+ 4 3 2 1 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 Eastbourne Forest Heath Herefordshire, County of Hillingdon Kensington and Chelsea Kingston upon Thames 5+ 4 3 2 1 Administrative Data Method Household Size 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 Lambeth Leicester Manchester Newcastle upon Tyne Newham Northumberland 5+ 4 3 2 1 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 Oxford Powys Reading Richmondshire Rotherham Stratford-on-Avon 5+ 4 3 2 1 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 Tonbridge and Malling Waltham Forest Warwick Waveney Westminster Wirral 5+ 4 3 2 1 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 Percentage of Households Census

  31. Census and England School Census Ethnicity

  32. Admin data case studies - findings • Potential for using admin and survey data in combination to produce statistics about population characteristics • High level of agreement for children between ethnicity on School Census and Census (but differed by ethnic group) • Distribution of household size and composition on admin sources similar to Census • However differences due to definitions, collection processes, classifications and lags • Will carry on research

  33. Conclusion • Good progress on admin data research • But lot more work to be done • Developing research plans – joint working • Researching use of admin data for characteristics • Excellent responses to consultation • Consistent messages • Awaiting government response to National Statistician/UKSA recommendations • Proceeding to plan for all three strands • Working with Cabinet Office on legislation

  34. Questions

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