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Challenges to Conventional Wisdom

Delve into China's demographic numbers revealing a stark gender imbalance caused by the One-Child Policy and social factors. Explore implications on society, migration, and the future.

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Challenges to Conventional Wisdom

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  1. Numbers that Matter about China Challenges to Conventional Wisdom Saturday 19 September 2009 Guy KedarGerrit Ledderhof Chia Wei Lee Johanna Little Geoff Spielman

  2. Some Numbers • Chinese population is over 1.3 billion • It is growing at a rate of 0.665% per year • Overall gender ratio is 1.06 males/female • However...

  3. What does this mean? • For every 213 children, there are 113 males and 100 females • At the current growth rate, in 15 years • Population of 1.44 billion • Youths will be between 15 and 30 of age • 151 million males, 134 million females • A surplus of almost 18 million males!

  4. What does this mean? • If taken to the extreme and the trend only continues • ...in 50 years population of 1.81 billion • 955 million males, 893 million females • A surplus of 62 million males!

  5. Why is this happening? • One-Child Policy • 57% rural population • desire for male to provide social security • Government reporting is suspect • underreported female births, abortions

  6. What are possible implications? • Unknown ramifications on child development • Change in the role of women • Change of One-Child policy • Crash of population • Mass migration • Increased ethnic diversity • Increased likelihood of war • New approach to polygamy?

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