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Chapter 7: The Electoral Process Honors Classes, Sept. 30, 2013

Chapter 7: The Electoral Process Honors Classes, Sept. 30, 2013. How should we elect politicians?. Let’s assume there are a lot of people who want to be President (and there are). Should we have one national vote where everyone who wants to be President is on the ballot? Pros : Cons :

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Chapter 7: The Electoral Process Honors Classes, Sept. 30, 2013

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  1. Chapter 7: The Electoral ProcessHonors Classes, Sept. 30, 2013

  2. How should we elect politicians? • Let’s assume there are a lot of people who want to be President (and there are). Should we have one national vote where everyone who wants to be President is on the ballot? Pros: Cons: More democratic Potential for misleading the public Cheaper (?) Couldn’t learn enough aboutthe candidates Lack of mandate with small percentage of votes

  3. We narrow the field in national elections • In national elections the two main parties use a two-step process: first primaries, then general elections. • Local elections – like mayor – often have just one general election. • A primary (which is the same thing as a “direct primary”) is when a party elects its candidate for the general election. Your book calls a primary an “intra-party election.”

  4. Primaries • If you win a major party’s primary, you’re automatically in the general election. • So what’s a “major party”? Any party that won at least 20% of the vote in the last election. • In States like Alabama where one party is dominant, you better win that party’s primary. Take a look at the last presidential election results (next slide).

  5. Results of Alabama 2012 Presidential Election Dark blue: Obama 80-90% Dark red: Romney 80-90% Mobile County: Romney 54.2%, Obama 45.0% Baldwin County: Romney 77.2%, Obama 21.6% Statewide: Romney 60.6%, Obama 38.4%, Libertarian party 0.6%, other 0.5%

  6. Primaries (cont.) • There are a couple of different types of primaries. • Closed: Must be registered member of party holding primary. • Open: Everyone can vote regardless of party affiliation. • Blanket: All candidates are on the ballot; all can vote. Ruled unconstitutional (violated freedom of association). • Nonpartisan: An open primary in which the candidates’ parties are not identified. Used most often in local elections. Not really a primary; more like a general election, although you can have write-in opposition in a general election. • Alabama has a “modified open” primary.

  7. Primaries (cont.) Why have an open vs. a closed primary? • For open: • Preserves confidentiality • Allows independent voters to participate • For closed: • Prevents “raiding” • Makes candidates more responsive to party

  8. Runoffs • Your book refers to “runoffs” as another type of primary, which struck me as a little confusing. • A runoff is just an election that is used – • in states that require a majority winner; and • when no one wins majority of votes in the primary. • We’ll have a runoff on Nov. 5 between Bradley Byrne and Dean Young, who were the two leading Republican vote-getters in the R primary for Congress.

  9. Alabama Runoff • Here is a map showing how the two candidates fared in Baldwin County. • In Mobile County, Byrne won 30.2%, Young won 19.8%. • Overall Byrne won 346% of the votes, Young won 23.0%.

  10. Crossover voting in Alabama • Let’s say you voted in Democratic primary but now want to vote in the Republican runoff. Can you? Yes. • But note: The Democratic party prevents you from voting in a Democratic runoff if you voted in the Republican primary.

  11. Other ways to get nominated • Caucus • Used to be used to control politics. • Today, it’s an open meeting of like-minded people who get together to vote on a candidate. See clip on Iowa caucus at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPdMxQ3IDeU

  12. If you can’t win the D or R nomination… …then try to qualify as a third party. And good luck with that. • If you’re with a minor party, then winning your primary will not guarantee you a place on the general election ballot. • You’ll need signatures on a petition equal to at least 3% of people who actually voted in last election. • For James Hall (who is running for Jo Bonner’s Congressional seat), he would need roughly 45,000 signatures to get the almost 6,000 names of people who actually voted.

  13. Presidential primaries • Presidents often have to tack further out to the extremes to get nominated. • Why? Because voters in primaries tend to be more extreme in their political views. • This can come back to haunt them. • Romney's senior campaign adviser: "I think you hit a reset button for the fall campaign. Everything changes. It's almost like an Etch A Sketch. You can kind of shake it up, and we start all over again.”

  14. Section 2: Elections • Let’s start with a familiar concept: federalism. • There are shared responsibilities for conducting an election. • Most election law is set at the State level, but the U.S. Congress does play a significant role. • The Constitution: Congress gets to set the time, place, and manner of holding elections for Congress. Art. I, Section 4.

  15. Federal rules • Congress has exercised its Constitutional power by saying that Congressional elections are to be held the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. • Why? • In November b/c harvest is in. • On a Tuesday b/c it allowed people to travel on Monday and observe the Sabbath. • Not on first of the month to avoid conflicts with payrolls.

  16. Federal rules (cont.) • Why just one day? Why not several? Or on weekends? • Early voting: possible in a lot of States. Over 32 million people cast ballots early in 2012 presidential election. • But some States are cutting back on early voting. See, e.g., NC lawsuit filed on 9/30/13.

  17. Voting by mail • Some States – like Oregon and Washington – allow for it. Good idea? • Pros: • Cheaper • Easier • Increases voter turnout • Cons: • Possibly greater risk of fraud • Possibly greater risk of coercion

  18. Voting by Internet • Not currently allowed. • Biggest problems: • Security issues • Fraud • Technical glitches • Possible skewing of results in favor of wealthy

  19. Federal rules (cont.) • Congress requires secret ballots. • We have at times used oral ballots. Abuse rampant. • Even after switching to paper ballots, the games continued. Used to be that party workers would “escort” you into the voting booth to make sure that you voted the right way. • May even have given you a copy of a ballot already filled in.

  20. Types of ballots • Today we use a written ballot, called an “Australian Ballot.” • Printed at public expense • Lists names of all candidates in the election • Given out at the polls • Filled out in secret

  21. Types of ballots (cont.) Within the set of Australian Ballots are the following subsets: • Office-group (or office-block, or Massachusetts) ballot: All candidates for a given office listed together. • Party column ballot: All members of a particular party listed together. Encourages straight-ticket voting.

  22. Alabama combined both in one in 2012

  23. When ballots attack: Bush v. Gore • The Florida presidential election in 2000 was in some ways a nightmare. • CNN’s coverage was typical: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEB9hWYMpA0 • A “butterfly” ballot was used (see next slide).

  24. Bedlam ensued… • Recounts were ordered in several c0unties. The FL Secretary of State (Kathleen Harris) ordered them stopped. The FL Supreme Court ordered them to continue and for the FL workers to try to discern the intent of the voter. • The lawsuits started flying. Seehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CI2U79ykgA • The result: The USSC said that the FL Supreme Court got it wrong when it ordered a “standardless” recount. While the USSC could’ve ordered a full recount according to a standard of its liking, it concluded time had run out. Bush wins.

  25. The response: Help America Vote Act of 2002 (HAVA) Major provisions: • Use electronic voting; no more butterfly ballots • Better training for poll workers • Better computerized voter ID records • Allow for “provisional voting” (i.e., letting someone vote whose eligibility has been questioned and then figuring out later if the vote should count)

  26. Section 3: Money and Elections You can’t have one without the other. Last presidential election: • Obama raised $1.20 billion. • Romneyraised $1.18 billion. Where did that money come from? (See next slide)

  27. Top contributors of campaign funds Obama: • U. of Cal $1.212mm • Microsoft $814,645 • Google $801,770 • US Gov’t EEs $728,647 • Harvard $668,368 Romney: • Goldman $1.033mm • B of A $1.013mm • Morgan $911,305 • JPMorgan $834,096 • Wells Fargo $677,076

  28. But that’s chump change compared to… …”super PAC” contributions. Contributor Amount contributed to a super PAC • Sheldon Adelson (casinos) $30,000,000 (R) • Bob Perry (homebuilder) $17,250,000 (R) • Robert Rowling (hotels, Gold’sGym) $6,100,000 (R) • James Simons (hedgefunds) $5,000,000 (O) • Fred Eychaner (newspapers, media) $4,500,000 (O)

  29. How about something more local? Cong. Bonner’s last race: • Spent $1.263mm • Top contributors: • Northrup Grumman $20,000 • Univ. of South Alabama $14,800 • EADS $11,000 • BC/BS $10,750 • Balch & Bingham $10,500

  30. Money is already entering the next race • People seeking to become a Senator or Representative already are well under way in raising money. See http://www.opensecrets.org/overview/index.php.

  31. Even more local: Mobile Mayoral Race (Through first week of August) • Sandy Stimpson: Raised $1,360,665 • Sam Jones: Raised $344,365 The point: It costs a boatload of money to run for just about any political office.

  32. What do you get for all that money? • Media consultants • Direct mail firms (for both fundraising and campaigning) • Ads, particularly negative ones (which are nothing new, by the way; see below) • The Coffin Handbills used by supporters of John Quincy Adams against Andrew Jackson in the 1828 presidential campaign. Jackson's mother was called a prostitute, and his wife an adulteress. • The Daisy ad used by Lyndon Johnson against Barry Goldwater in the United States presidential election, 1964. See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDTBnsqxZ3k. • Willie Horton and Revolving Door ads used by in the 1988 presidential campaign against Michael Dukakis.. See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Io9KMSSEZ0Y. • Attacks against George W. Bush's military record in the 2004 presidential election, and attacks against John Kerry's Vietnam service record by some Navy Swift Boat veterans of the Vietnam War. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phqOuEhg9yE • Other (travel, polling, administrative, etc.)

  33. Attempts to regulate all that money • 1907: The Tillman Act banned corporations from contributing to federal campaigns. • A response to allegations of corruption levied against TR • Corporations welcomed it as a relief from being shaken down by politicians. • Was amended in 1911 to include disclosure provisions and extend to primaries. • Law was rarely enforced. • Replaced in the 1970s with the Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA).

  34. FECA • Created the Federal Election Commission (FEC) • Required disclosures of where contributions are coming from • Put in place public financing of Presidential campaigns • Limited contributions to candidates (no more than $1k to any one candidate per single election (since raised to $2k))

  35. FECA (cont.) • Limited expenditures, both by candidates and others • Allowed PACs to be used. • Must have at least 50 voluntary members and contribute to at least 5 candidates. • Limit: $5k per candidate, $15k per party. • No limits on “soft money” (i.e., money given to political parties for party-building activities, like get-out-the-vote efforts or voter registration).

  36. Current limits • Individuals: • $2,600 to any one candidate per election • $5,000 to any one PAC per year • $123,200 total every two years • Political Action Committees (PACs): • $5,000 to any one candidate per election • No aggregate limits • Complete list: http://www.fec.gov/pages/brochures/contriblimits.shtml

  37. What’s left of the FECA? Not much. • Limits on candidate’s personal spending were struck down in Buckley v. Valeo(1976). • There are still individual contributionlimits; Buckley upheld these. • If a candidate accepts federal funds, then he or she must agree to spending caps ($45.6mm in primaries and $91mm in general election). • The soft-money loophole was closed in 2002 in the McCain-Feingold Act. So independent groups sprang up.

  38. Most recent challenge • McCutcheon v. FECis challenging the FEC’s limit on how much an individual can spend in a two-year period. • McCutcheon is arguing that this aggregate limit is an unconstitutional violation of his First Amendment rights to free speech and freedom of association. • The USSC will hear this case this term.

  39. So how did the Adelsons, et al., spend so much? Super PACs! • Super PACs are basically free of any restrictions, thanks to the First Amendment right to free speech. See SpeechNow.org v. FEC(2010) and Citizens United v. FEC (2010). • Citizens United: Allowed corporations to spend their own money on both “issue ads” and “advocacy ads”. So instead of forming a regular old PAC and channeling employees’ contributions, a corporation now can spend its money directly.

  40. Super PACs (cont.) • A super PAC can raise unlimited sums of money – from corporations, unions, individuals, etc. – and spend them on political speech as long as the PAC does not give to, or coordinate with, a campaign. • The rule: no expenditures made “in cooperation, consultation, or concert with, or at the request or suggestion” of candidates or their representatives. • But note that a super PAC can campaign overtly for or against a candidate.

  41. Blurred lines • The line between super PACs and campaigns has blurred. There are lots of connections through consultants, media advisors, hiring of staffers back and forth, etc. • See, e.g., “Fine Line Between ‘Super PACs’ and Campaigns” (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/26/us/politics/loose-border-of-super-pac-and-romney-campaign.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0) (summarized in part on next slide).

  42. Blurred lines (cont.) • Romney: • His campaign and Restore Our Future (a pro-Romney super PAC) both used TargetPoint Consulting. • TargetPoint shares an office suite with WWP Strategies, whose co-founder is married to TargetPoint CEO and who worked for Romney campaign. • Black Rock Group is across the hall. Co-founder was a Romney official in 2008 campaign and helps run Restore Our Future. • Obama: • A pro-Obama super PAC called Priorities USA was formed by 2 former Obama White House aides. • Obama administration officials are helping it raise money.

  43. Super PACs explained by Stephen Colbert: • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mWC2BogYlVk

  44. How much are we talking about? Top 4 super PACs in last presidential campaign: Super PACExpenditures • Restore Our Future $142,097,336 (R) • American Crossroads $104,746,670 (Conservative) • Priorities USA $37,498,257 (O) • Majority PAC $35,844,122 (Liberal)

  45. One last image of the money game • Largest reported total that Adelson gave to one super PAC: $30 million (Restore Our Future). • Total that Adelson reportedly gave to all candidates and groups in 2012 election: approximately $150 million. (http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2012/12/03/sheldon-adelson-ended-up-spending-150-million)

  46. Jeopardy review http://jeopardylabs.com/play/chapter-7-review198

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