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OECD Water Outlook to 2050: Managing Water Risks & seizing GREEN Growth Opportunities

OECD Water Outlook to 2050: Managing Water Risks & seizing GREEN Growth Opportunities. CNI Sustainability: Water Opportunities and Challenges for Development in Brazil Rio de Janeiro, 24 October 2013. Kathleen Dominique, Environmental Economist. Water demand to increase by 55% by 2050.

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OECD Water Outlook to 2050: Managing Water Risks & seizing GREEN Growth Opportunities

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  1. OECD Water Outlook to 2050:Managing Water Risks & seizing GREEN Growth Opportunities CNI Sustainability: Water Opportunities and Challenges for Development in Brazil Rio de Janeiro, 24 October 2013 Kathleen Dominique, Environmental Economist

  2. Waterdemand to increase by 55% by 2050 Global water demand, baseline 2000 and 2050 Rapidly growing water demand from cities, industry and energy suppliers will challenge water for irrigation to 2050. Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050; output from IMAGE

  3. Human and economic costs of a changing climate: uncertain future for freshwater Change in annual temperature from 1990-2050 Almost 40% of people in 2050 (3.9 billion) will live in severely water-stressed regions Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050; output from IMAGE

  4. Number of people living in water-stressed river basins Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050; output from IMAGE

  5. Water pollution from urban sewageto increase 3-fold Nitrogen effluents from wastewater: baseline 1970 to 2050 Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050; output from IMAGE

  6. Population lacking access to an improved water source or basic sanitation 1990-2050 240 million people without access to water supply in 2050 1.4 billion people without access to sanitation in 2050 Source: OECD (2012), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050; output from IMAGE

  7. Ranking of coastal cities at risk from future flood losses, 2005 Costs of global flood damage could rise from USD 6 billion to USD 1 trillion p.a. by 2050. Source: StephaneHallegatte, Colin Green, Robert J. Nicholls and Jan Corfee-Morlot: “Future flood losses in major coastal cities” in nature climate change, 18 August 2013.

  8. Water security risks

  9. Costs of water insecurity Droughtin Brazil2012 caused significant drop in production of food and raw materials and strained energy production. Government emergency credit fund of R$2.4 billion. 2011 floods in Thailandslashed 4th quarter GDP growth by 12%.

  10. “Know”, “target” and “manage” risks The future is uncertain. The risk approach encourages thinking systematically about uncertainty. The level of assessment and governance should be proportional to the risk faced.

  11. What is acceptable? Balance between economic, social and environmental consequences andthe cost of improvement. For business community, help to secure social license to operate.

  12. Policy action: managing water risks and seizing green growth opportunities • Improve incentives for managing risk • Robust water resource allocation (efficient, flexible, equitable risk sharing) • Remove environmentally-harmful subsidies (e.g. under pricing water, production-linked agricultural subsidies) • Water pricing, abstraction charges, pollution charges, insurance schemes • Encourage green innovation • Change the economics: make pollution and wasteful production & consumption more expensive • Reduce barriers to uptake and diffusion of innovative water technologies and techniques

  13. Decoupling water use from growth OECD freshwater abstraction by major use and GDP (1990=100) Over 1/3 of OECD countries have reduced their total water abstractions since 1990 Source: OECD Environmental Data

  14. Water pricing - reducing demand % Ownership against fee structure 20% less water use in households that pay for their water Source: OECD (2011), Greening Household Behaviour: The Role of Public Policy

  15. Policy action: managing water risks and seizing green growth opportunities • Improve information and data • Better “knowing” the risks, including perceptions • Invest in infrastructure (“grey” and “green”) • Financing needs considerable: • 0.35-1.2% of GDP over next 20 years in OECD countries • Developing countries: USD 54 billion to maintain systems, another USD 17 billion to meet MDGs (per year, estimates vary widely) • Sources: 3 T’s (tariffs, taxes, transfers) • Principles: beneficiary pays, polluter pays, equity and coherence • Combine “grey” and “green” to improve scalability and flexibility to adjust to change • Making water reform happen • National Policy Dialogues

  16. MuitoObrigada www.oecd.org/water Contact: Kathleen.Dominique@oecd.org

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