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Houston-Galveston Area Council Community and Environmental Department

Houston-Galveston Area Council Community and Environmental Department. “Validation Exercise for UrbanSim Model”. Presented Wednesday, December 12th , 2002 Richard D. DeBose, Program Manager Forecasting Group Houston-Galveston Area Council, 3555 Timmons Lane, Houston, Texas 77227

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Houston-Galveston Area Council Community and Environmental Department

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  1. Houston-Galveston Area Council Community and Environmental Department “Validation Exercise for UrbanSim Model” Presented Wednesday, December 12th , 2002 Richard D. DeBose, Program Manager Forecasting Group Houston-Galveston Area Council, 3555 Timmons Lane, Houston, Texas 77227 713 993-4535, debose@hgac.cog.tx.us

  2. Historical Employment Data 10 6 REMI: Multi-Sector Employment & Population Scenarios Historical Household Demographics Historical Land-Use Data Segmented Establishment Data 2 Segmented Household Data Mobility Rates Birth & Death Rates Land-Use Constraints Description of Land Market 2 UrbanSim Small Area Allocation 2

  3. UrbanSim: “A software-based simulation model for integrated planning and analysis of urban development, incorporating the interactions between land use, transportation, and public policy. It is intended for use by Metropolitan Planning Organizations and others needing to interface existing travel models with new land use forecasting and analysis capabilities.” (www.urbansim.org) Applications in: Eugene, Oregon: Salt Lake City, Utah: Seattle: Pugent Sound Regional Council Hawaii, (Parsons/Brinc.)

  4. Grid Size: 1000 ft x 1000 ft

  5. Classified Land Use from Satellite Image

  6. D E E R B R O O K M A L L # G R E E N S P O I N T M A L L # W I L L O W B R O O K M A L L # S A N J A C I N T O M A L L N O R T H W E S T M A L L N O R T H L I N E M A L L M E M O R I A L C I T Y # # # T O W N A N D C O U N T R Y C E N T E R # # # P A S A D E N A T O W N S Q U A R E # G A L L E R I A # K A T Y M I L L S # # # # W E S T O A K S M A L L # W E S T W O O D M A L L # # F I R S T C O L O N Y # G U L F G A T E M A L L S H A R P S T O W N C E N T E R A L M E D A M A L L M E Y E R L A N D P L A Z A D i s t r i b u t i o n o f H o u s t o n S h o p p i n g M a l l s B A Y B R O O K M A L L ( i n S q a u r e F e e t L e s s T h a n 7 5 0 , 0 0 0 S F # # 7 5 0 , 0 0 1 - 1 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 # 1 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 1 - 1 , 2 5 0 , 0 0 0 # 1 , 2 5 0 , 0 0 1 - 1 , 5 0 0 , 0 0 0 # G r e a t e r T h a n 1 , 5 0 0 , 0 0 0 S F H o u s t o n - G a l v e s t o n A r e a C o u n c i l C o m m u n i t y & E n v i r o n m e n t a l P l a n n i n g D e p a r t m e n t P . O . B o x 2 2 7 7 7 F o r e c a s t i n g G r o u p 3 5 5 5 T i m m o n s L a n e M a y 2 , 2 0 0 2 H o u s t o n , T e x a s 7 7 2 2 7 - 2 7 7 7 ( 7 1 3 ) 6 2 7 - 3 2 0 0 Summary of Mall Locations Of 19 Harris/Fort Bend Malls: 21.6 million SF in REVAC 21.3 million SF in Land Database ) * KATY MILLS ADDED TO REVAC’S SET

  7. Housing Location Model: Attributes: Household (Income, Age, Size) - Development Type - Cost to Income Ratio - Incomes of Surrounding Households - Proximity to Arterials/Highways - Accessibility to Jobs ...... 1 2 3 200,000 (Conditional Logit Model Based on sample households.)

  8. Forecasting Group Community & Environmental Planning Department Source: Census 2000 Summary File (SF 3)

  9. Forecasting Group Community & Environmental Planning Department Source: Census 2000 Summary File (SF 3)

  10. Age of Householder Forecasting Group Community & Environmental Planning Department Source: Census 2000 Summary File (SF 3)

  11. Employment Location Model: Attributes: Job in Sector 3 - Develoment Type - Access to Population - Access to Employment - Proximity to Arterials/Highways - Surrounding Employment Mix -Land Values ...... 1 2 3 200,000 (Conditional Logit Model Based on sample jobs.)

  12. 1999 Employment By Zone 1999 Increase Avg. Annual Employment Over 1995 Increase Loop 586,000 42,000 10,000 Belt 759,000 64,000 16,000 Out Belt 630,000 72,000 18,000 Parkway 149,000 22,000 5,000 Other 241,000 33,000 8,000 Based on 1999 ABI and 1995 Dun&Bradstreet geo-coded employment.

  13. Land Development Model How is land classified into development types ? How does land transition from one development type to another?

  14. Transition Probabilities: Attributes: - Current Development Type VA - Proximity to Other Types (Mix of nearby square footages and land values.) ? .45 - Land Value VA .35 .20 - Proximity to Arterials/Highways - Frequency of near-by transitions C1 R1 - Improvemnt to Land Ratios (Conditional Logit Model Based on “transitions” table.)

  15. Transition Probabilities: Attributes: - Current Development Type VA - Proximity to Other Types (Mix of nearby square footages and land values.) ? .45 - Land Value VA .35 .20 - Proximity to Arterials/Highways - Frequency of near-by transitions C1 R1 - Improvemnt to Land Ratios (Conditional Logit Model Based on “transitions” table.)

  16. Actual Land Change: 1990 - 2000

  17. Simulated Residential Land Use Change: 1990 - 2000

  18. END

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