Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

1. Looking to Colorado’s Future Alexandra Hall Director, Labor Market Information Colorado Department of Labor and Employment

2. What we’ll cover today: • Basic Industry/Occupation Concepts • Current economic climate • Forecasting Process • Hot Industries • Hot Occupations

3. Colorado Employment and Recessions 1939 - 2005 "A recession is a significant decline in activity spread across the economy lasting more than a few months."

4. Individual companies conducting similar business Industry • Agriculture • Mining • Construction • Manufacturing

5. Individual companies conducting similar business Industry • Tourism • Hi-Tech • Bio-Tech

6. Work in which people engage to earn a living Occupation • Accountant • Secretary • Flight Attendant • Surgeon • Software Engineer • Network Analyst

7. Work in which people engage to earn a living Occupation • Customer Service Representative • Administrative Assistant

8. What is Labor Market Information? • Industry Employment & Wages • Occupation Employment & Wages • Demand for Workers • Current Demand • Future Demand

9. Employment Outlook: The U.S. and Colorado through 2012

10. Employment Outlook: 2002-12Projections Process • Labor force • Economic growth • Industry employment • Occupational employment

11. Population growth rates Annual rates of change projected Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

12. The civilian labor force will grow by 1.1 percent annually from 2002 to 2012. Annual rates of change projected Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

13. 65 and over 55 to 64 45 to 54 35 to 44 25 to 34 16 to 24 The size of the civilian labor force ages 55-64 will increase significantly Projected numerical change, 2002-12 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

14. Labor force participation rate by gender Percent, 1952-2002 and projected 2002-2012 Men Total Women projected Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

15. Labor force participation of men and women age 55 and older, 1948-2004 Percent Men Women Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

16. Women’s labor forcegrowth outpaces men’s Percent change projected Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

17. Women’s share of the labor force continues to edge up Percent of labor force Women Men projected projected Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

18. Labor force growth rates of minorities outpaces whites Percent change, 2002-12 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

19. Workers by Race Percent of labor force Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

20. Colorado

21. Colorado

22. Employment Outlook: 2002-12Projections Process • Labor force • Economic growth • Industry employment • Occupational employment

23. A healthy economy isprojected through 2012 Selected economic variables GDP (annual growth rate, projected 2002-12) Unemployment rate, 2012 (assumed) Productivity (annual growth rate, projected 2002-12) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

24. The 2002-12 projections assume a 3.0 percent real GDP growth rate Average annual rate of change projected

25. Annualized growth rates of labor productivity during recessions Average annual rate of change

26. The 2002-12 projections assume a5.2 percent unemployment rate Percent

27. Employment Outlook: 2002-12Projections Process • Labor force • Economic growth • Industry output and employment • Occupational employment

28. Nationally, total employment is projected to increase by 4.8 percent or 21.3 million. Nonfarm wage and salary employment is projected to increase by 21.6 million Millions of jobs Nonfarm wage and salary employment Total employment projected projected Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

29. Total employment is projected to increase by23 percent or 551,600. Nonfarm wage and salary employment is projected to increase by 272,000 Millions of jobs Colorado

30. Goods-producing Service-providing projected projected Service-providing industriescontinue to lead employment growth Millions of nonfarm wage and salary jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

31. Manufacturing, financial activities and professional and business services accounted for nearly half of total output in 2002 Billions of dollars Service Providing Goods Producing Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

32. Service Providing Goods Producing Education and health services and professional and business services accounted for nearly 40 percent of employment in 2002 Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

33. Service Providing Goods Producing Education and health services and professional and business services account for nearly half of projected total employment growth Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs, 2002-12 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

34. Software publishers Management, scientific and technical consulting services Community care facilities for the elderly Computer systems design and related services Employment services Vocational rehabilitation services Ambulatory health care services Water, sewage and other systems Internet services and data processing services Child day care services Three of the 10 fastest-growing detailed industries over thru 2012 are computer related, two are health related. Percent change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

35. Of Colorado’s 10 fastest-growing industries thru 2012 2 are health related, 2 are transportation related and 2 are manufacturing related.

36. The 10 detailed industries with the most new jobs, projected thru 2012 Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

37. Colorado’s 10 detailed industries with the most new jobs, projected thru 2012

38. National Detailed industries with faster than average employment and output growth • Detailed industries with: • employment growth greater than 14.8% • and average annual output growth rates greater than the overall average of 3.3%. • These industries accounted for: • 21.3% of employment in 2002 • and are projected to account for 45% of employment growth from 2002-2012

39. National Detailed industries with faster than average employment and output growth • If you include industries with: • faster than average employment growth • and average annual output growth of at least 2% per year: • These industries accounted for: • 38% of employment in 2002 • and are projected to account for 65% of employment growth thru 2012

40. National Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater than 2% per year • Manufacturing • Plastics product manufacturing (128,000)* • Animal slaughtering and processing (80,000) • Architectural and structural metals mfg (77,000) • Pharmaceutical and medicine mfg (68,000) • Other wood product mfg (67,000) • Other general purpose machinery mfg (51,000) • Cement and concrete product mfg (48,000) • Metalworking machinery mfg (34,000) • Veneer, plywood mfg (21,000) • Forging and stamping (18,000) * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, 2002-12

41. National Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater than 2% per year • Utilities and waste management • Water, sewage and other systems (23,000)* • Transportation and warehousing • Truck transportation, couriers and messengers (507,000) • Scenic and sightseeing transportation (100,000) * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, 2002-12

42. National Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater than 2% per year • Information • Internet services, data processing (244,000)* • Software publishers (174,000) • Motion picture and sound recording industries (116,000) • Financial activities • Non-depository credit intermediation (196,000) • Consumer goods and general rental centers (131,000) • Securities, commodity contracts (124,000) • Commercial and industrial machinery rental (41,000) * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, 2002-12

43. National Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater than 2% per year • Education and health services • Offices of health practitioners (1,229,000)* • Ambulatory health care services (670,000) • Hospitals (632,000) • Individual, family, community and voc rehab services (597,000) • Nursing care and residential mental health facilities (559,000) • Child day care services (382,000) * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, 2002-12

44. National Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater than 2% per year • Leisure and hospitality • Food services and drinking places (1,337,000)* • Amusement, gambling, and recreation industries (410,000) • Traveler accommodation (293,000) • Performing art companies, promoters, agents, managers, and independent artists (37,000) • Museums, historical sites, and similar institutions (24,000) • RV parks, recreational camps, and rooming and boarding houses (8,000) * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, 2002-12

45. National Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth and output growth greater than 2% per year • Other services • Religious, grant making and giving services, and social advocacy organizations (428,000) * • Automotive repair and maintenance (149,000) • Personal care services (144,000) • Other personal services (51,000) • Commercial and industrial equipment (except automotive and electronic) repair and maintenance (29,000) • State and local government • State and local electric utilities (14,000) * Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, 2002-12

46. Colorado Employment Growth thru 2012 78,480

47. Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (61,023) • Computer Systems Design and Related Services (24,139) • Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services (7,658) • Specialized Design Services (977) • Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services (14,369) • Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (3,866) • Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping, and Payroll Services (3,456) • Scientific Research and Development Services (2,518) Colorado Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth greater than 2.3% per year

48. Colorado Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth greater than 2.3% per year • Health Care & Social Assistance (78,480) • Community Care Facilities for the Elderly (7,758) • Other Ambulatory Health Care Services (1,811) • Home Health Care Services (4,898) • Outpatient Care Centers (5,082) • Individual and Family Services (5,670) • General Medical and Surgical Hospitals (22,540) • Offices of Physicians (11,275) • Offices of Other Health Practitioners (3,225) • Child Day Care Services (4,329) • Offices of Dentists (4,039) • Vocational Rehabilitation Services (1,033) • Nursing Care Facilities (4,775)

49. Colorado Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth greater than 2.3% per year • Arts, Entertainment & Recreation ( 13,679 ) • Independent Artists, Writers, and Performers (381) • Promoters of Performing Arts, Sports, and Similar Events (440) • Gambling Industries (1,775) • Other Amusement and Recreation Industries (9,275) • Museums, Historical Sites, and Similar Institution (552) • Amusement Parks and Arcades (537) • Spectator Sports (480)

50. Colorado Detailed industries with faster than average employment growth greater than 2.3% per year • Transportation & Warehousing (21,078) • Support Activities for Road Transportation (784) • Nonscheduled Air Transportation (595) • Local Messengers and Local Delivery (586) • Freight Transportation Arrangement (847) • Warehousing and Storage (4,146) • Scheduled Air Transportation (5,145) • Urban Transit Systems (225) • Specialized Freight Trucking (2,605) • Interurban and Rural Bus Transportation (137)