Science and nuclear weapons diplomacy

1. Science and nuclear weapons diplomacy Rebecca E. Johnson Ph.D Acronym Institute for Disarmament Diplomacy President, ICAN Europe-MiddleEast-Africa at CTBTO Advanced Course: “Nexus between Science and Diplomacy”, Vienna, Dec 8, 2011

2. Science can be used to make weapons of mass destruction

3. Science can be used to verify disarmament and arms control CTBTO’s IFE08 in Kazakhstan

4. Civil Society – negotiating partners Science is important in paving the way for diplomacy, including the pre-negotiations phase Civil Society – negotiating partners

5. Science has played important roles in Prenegotiations and Negotiations • Governmental-multilateral: 1978-1993 GSE (formal, mainly government scientists especially seismic experts) paved the way for the CTBT’s Interntional Monitoring System (IMS) • Nongovernmental: Late 1980s, joint verification experiments (JVE) carried out by US-based Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) and the Soviet Academby of Sciences (SAS) • Government-labs-NGO: UK-Norwegian disarmament verification project, run by AWE Aldermaston with participation also by VERTIC

6. Science in the fieldIntegrated Field Experiment (IFE08) run by CTBTO in 2008, Semipalatinsk, Kazakhstan

7. Verification, one of the most crucial roles for scientists in disarmament diplomacy, is at the nexus of technology, politics and diplomacy Intersects: • what is “adequate” and what is “bearable” • intrusion and fact-finding • compliance and espionage • data and interpretation • confidence and practicality • vision and practice • affordable resources and representative skills • optimism and pessimism • technology and politics

8. Science in diplomacy is seldom neutral Governments use scientific arguments and data for a purpose: to facilitate or obstruct agreement In the 1950s, the US nuclear labs (Edward Teller et al) used misleading data about decoupled nuclear explosions to derail Eisenhower’s efforts to get a CTBT In the 1990s, scientists from the P-5 nuclear labs, especially the US and UK, contributed positively to the verification negotiations for the CTBT

9. Historically: Scientists as civil society raising concerns: Einstein, Rotblat and Pugwash (Science and World Affairs)

10. The Russell-Einstein Manifesto issued in London, 9 July 1955 Bertrand Russell and Albert Einstein “Remember your humanity, and forget the rest. If you can do so, the way lies open to a new Paradise; if you cannot, there lies before you the risk of universal death.”

11. An important Role for Scientists “[T]he idea that scientists should take an active part in world affairs was evidently approved by public opinion.” • Joseph Rotblat

12. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and the ‘Doomsday Clock’

13. Current examples: IPFM

15. POLITICAL IMPACT Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev (1985-91) commented in an interview in 1994 that when he received control over the Soviet nuclear arsenal: “Perhaps there was an emotional side to it…. I knew the report on ‘nuclear winter’... Models made by Russian and American scientists showed that a nuclear war would result in a nuclear winter that would be extremely destructive to all life on Earth; the knowledge of that was a great stimulus to us, to people of honor and morality, to act in that situation.”

16. Effects of nuclear explosions: basis for verification: role of GSE in CTBT negotiations • Blast and EMP • detect with IMS –seismic, hydronuclear and infrasound • Heat/flash • detect with IMS and NTM (satellite) • Radiation • detect with IMS (radiation sensors for both particulates and noble gases) • Environmental effects • investigate with On-Site Inspections • Complex synergistic effects • detect, locate and identify with synergistic verification technologies, IMS, OSI, public information resources, NTM and citizen/societal monitoring and whistleblowing

17. Effects of nuclear explosions: as motivators for a comprehensive nuclear weapons ban • Blast • direct • Indirect - percussive • Heat/flash • Burns, blindness • fires, massive firestorms • Radiation • Initial • Direct • Induction of radioactivity • Fallout • Local (mostly external) • Intermediate (mostly external) • Global (mostly internal) • Electromagnetic pulse • communication breakdown • Environmental effects • on Biota (living things) • on Climate and Agriculture • Complex synergistic effects > e.g. blast lethal area of 150 km2 would have fire conflagration area 350 km2 > Radiation would weaken immune systems > Persistent high mortality years later, genetic effects harming future generations

18. Scientific research to inform, raise awareness and create conditions for changing policies

19. RESEARCH ON LIMITED NUCLEAR USE Evaluated effects of 100 ‘small’ nuclear explosions (15 kt, Hiroshima size) on urban centres: • This is just 0.4% of nuclear weapons and 0.07% of explosive yield in current arsenals • Up to 17 million immediate deaths • Multiple small nuclear warheads produce FAR MORE radioactive debris, smoke and deaths per kt than high yield weapons • Lofting, circulation and persistence of smoke/dust clouds for ~ 10 years • Substantial and long lasting climatic effects likely to cause widespread global famine

20. Desperation, Conflict and Further wars • Famine • Disruption of trade • Hoarding • Food riots • Intra-state ‘civil’ wars • Wars between nations… International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War

21. From Humanitarian Imperative to Disarmament: Stigmatizing weapons as inhumane paves the way for banning them Examples from other weapons: • asphyxiating chemicals • 1925 Geneva Protocol (use)1993 CWC (all aspects) • biological and toxin weapons • 1925 Geneva Protocol (use)1972 BTWC • antipersonnel landmines • 1997 Mine Ban Convention (use, stockpiling, production and transfer...) • cluster munitions • 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM prohibits use, production, stockpiling and transfer...)

22. CONCLUSIONS and CHALLENGES Most political leaders lack scientific training and are not good at evaluating scientific data and arguments. Scientists can play crucial roles in making diplomacy on disarmament and security issues more possible and more effective.... or... science can be used to present narrower political options and provide obstacles to obstruct diplomacy...

23. Responsible scientists can help to facilitate a paradigm shift from military-national dominated nuclear arms control to human-security-centred disarmament • EDUCATE – nuclear effects, health, long term environmental harm, to show NECESSITY and URGENCY of disarmament action. • RAISE Awareness, convince governments and show how technical and verification obstacles can be overcome for deeper treaties and agreements on comprehensive, global nuclear disarmament