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Overview of crime trends in SA NPA CONFERENCE 2007

Outline . Overview of official crime statistics: 2004/5 - 2005/6 (up to March 2006)What do we know about crime in 2006/7?. Overview of official crime statistics . General trends over past 12 years. Total number of crimes ? 7% Total crime, and most serious crimes, peaked around 2002/3After 200

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Overview of crime trends in SA NPA CONFERENCE 2007

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    1. Overview of crime trends in SA NPA CONFERENCE 2007 JOHAN BURGER Crime and Justice Programme

    2. Outline Overview of official crime statistics: 2004/5 - 2005/6 (up to March 2006) What do we know about crime in 2006/7?

    3. Overview of official crime statistics The 2 key sources of crime statistics are: SAPS - provides the only comprehensive database on crime statistics in a consistent format, over time. But don’t release stats often enough - most recent data is up to March 2006 (next release which will take us up to April 2007 will be in 1st week of Sept) National victim surveys - 2 have been done in SA (and are referred to later on). In other countries like UK, these surveys are done every year or so.The 2 key sources of crime statistics are: SAPS - provides the only comprehensive database on crime statistics in a consistent format, over time. But don’t release stats often enough - most recent data is up to March 2006 (next release which will take us up to April 2007 will be in 1st week of Sept) National victim surveys - 2 have been done in SA (and are referred to later on). In other countries like UK, these surveys are done every year or so.

    4. General trends over past 12 years Total number of crimes ? 7% Total crime, and most serious crimes, peaked around 2002/3 After 2002/3, encouraging decreases were recorded (? 6% per year) Several types of serious crime ? since 2002/3: murder, burglary, robbery overall Serious crimes that increased recently: vehicle theft, hijacking, CIT robberies

    5. Total 21 crimes recorded by SAPS 1994/95 - 2005/06 These data represent the 20 most serious crimes Two NB overall points: crime increased 7% 1994/5-2005/6; biggest increase up to 2002/03 - since then it’s dropped by 18%; decreased by 9% in last financial year. Of the total, the most common recorded crime is property crime (49%), violent interpersonal (26%), other (16%) and robbery (9%) The % of crime that is violent is high: about 35% which is higher than US (15%) and UK (3%) These data represent the 20 most serious crimes Two NB overall points: crime increased 7% 1994/5-2005/6; biggest increase up to 2002/03 - since then it’s dropped by 18%; decreased by 9% in last financial year. Of the total, the most common recorded crime is property crime (49%), violent interpersonal (26%), other (16%) and robbery (9%) The % of crime that is violent is high: about 35% which is higher than US (15%) and UK (3%)

    6. How accurate are the police statistics? These figures come from the ISS 2003 national victim survey - and show the % of victims who DID report to police. Typically, crimes like murder, car theft, hijacking,and burglary are better reported. (most serious property related crimes, and of course murder & hijacking - most extreme violence) Robbery is reported by few victims - only a third. Under-reporting is a global phenomenon, undermining crime statistics everywhere. There is also a question whether all crimes that are reported are recorded. The good news is that most of the more accurate crimes (those that are well reported) have shown declines over the past decade (murder, and until recently - car theft, car hijacking) These figures come from the ISS 2003 national victim survey - and show the % of victims who DID report to police. Typically, crimes like murder, car theft, hijacking,and burglary are better reported. (most serious property related crimes, and of course murder & hijacking - most extreme violence) Robbery is reported by few victims - only a third. Under-reporting is a global phenomenon, undermining crime statistics everywhere. There is also a question whether all crimes that are reported are recorded. The good news is that most of the more accurate crimes (those that are well reported) have shown declines over the past decade (murder, and until recently - car theft, car hijacking)

    7. Murder rate 1994/95 - 2005/06 murder most reliable crime stat good indicator of level of violence in society Good news - murder consistently decreasing - drop of 41% since 1994 However, despite the drop the rate is still unacceptably high with about 18 500 murders per year. Levelling off??? If add culpable homicide, then levelled off over past 3 years already….??? murder most reliable crime stat good indicator of level of violence in society Good news - murder consistently decreasing - drop of 41% since 1994 However, despite the drop the rate is still unacceptably high with about 18 500 murders per year. Levelling off??? If add culpable homicide, then levelled off over past 3 years already….???

    8. Housebreaking rate 1994/95 - 2005/06 Drop of 6% since 1994 Biggest drop since 2002/3 Drop of 6% between 2004/5 and 2005/6 Housebreaking is one of most serious crimes in SA: 2003 ISS victim survey showed that: it’s one that many people fear the most (2nd most feared after murder) Many people think is most likely to happen to them, and most people talked about it Trend for business burglaries similar - number dropped by 38% between 1994/5 - 2005/6 Drop of 6% since 1994 Biggest drop since 2002/3 Drop of 6% between 2004/5 and 2005/6 Housebreaking is one of most serious crimes in SA: 2003 ISS victim survey showed that: it’s one that many people fear the most (2nd most feared after murder) Many people think is most likely to happen to them, and most people talked about it Trend for business burglaries similar - number dropped by 38% between 1994/5 - 2005/6

    9. Aggravated robbery rate 1994/95 - 2005/06 Total robbery much higher now that 12 years ago: rates for common up 89% and agg up 16% In both cases rates peaked around 2003 and have since dropped steadily But trends are problematic: low reporting impact of cell phone theft unclear (approx 50% of all aggravated robbery involve cell phones) Several specific types of aggravated robbery (for which reporting is pretty good) are increasing Total robbery much higher now that 12 years ago: rates for common up 89% and agg up 16% In both cases rates peaked around 2003 and have since dropped steadily But trends are problematic: low reporting impact of cell phone theft unclear (approx 50% of all aggravated robbery involve cell phones) Several specific types of aggravated robbery (for which reporting is pretty good) are increasing

    10. Bank robbery & cash in transit heists 1996/97 - 2005/06 CIT Increased by 7% since 1996/7 Increased by 74% between 2004/5 and 2005/6 (SABRIC shows increase of 28% during this time) (SAPS now include cross-pavement robberies as CIT) BANK ROBBERY Massive decrease since 1996/97 of 89% does indicate that effective collaborative strategies can be put in place for certain types of robberies - especially where there’s an industry involved (this is not the case with home robberies which are very worrying)CIT Increased by 7% since 1996/7 Increased by 74% between 2004/5 and 2005/6 (SABRIC shows increase of 28% during this time) (SAPS now include cross-pavement robberies as CIT) BANK ROBBERY Massive decrease since 1996/97 of 89% does indicate that effective collaborative strategies can be put in place for certain types of robberies - especially where there’s an industry involved (this is not the case with home robberies which are very worrying)

    11. Car hijacking rate 1996/97 - 2005/06 In the country as a whole, hijacking dropped by 16% since 1996/97 Increased by 3% in past year still a lot of cases: 12,825 in 2005/6 Gauteng and KZN most casesIn the country as a whole, hijacking dropped by 16% since 1996/97 Increased by 3% in past year still a lot of cases: 12,825 in 2005/6 Gauteng and KZN most cases

    12. Car theft rate 1994/95 - 2005/06 Car thefts are well reported to police Essentially good news - down 34% since 1994 Peaked in 1998/99 Number up by 2.5% in last financial year Car thefts are well reported to police Essentially good news - down 34% since 1994 Peaked in 1998/99 Number up by 2.5% in last financial year

    13. Rape rate 1994/95 - 2005/06 Well known and serious problems of under-reporting of rape to police Levels remains concerning - 55,000 a year 41% (23,000) victims are girls (< 18 yrs) Well known and serious problems of under-reporting of rape to police Levels remains concerning - 55,000 a year 41% (23,000) victims are girls (< 18 yrs)

    14. What do we know about crime in 2006/7? Various sources indicate increases in certain crimes in certain places

    15. Short-term insurance industry reports Mutual & Federal: Reversal of downward trend in hijacking in Apr-June 2006 quarter (4% increase over 2005 quarter) Stolen cars also resumed an upward trend in Apr-June quarter Burglary claims increased by 15% in this quarter Hollard: Spike in hijacking (20%) and burglary claims in Apr-June 2006 quarter S Times and S Indep - 20/8/06:S Times and S Indep - 20/8/06:

    16. Increases in certain crimes in Gauteng (MEC for Community Safety, Feb 2007) Operation IRON FIST (July - Dec 2006) was launched to address the “spike in certain crimes”. Results: Hijacking “stabilised” compared to 1st 6 months of 2006 “Substantial reduction” in CIT heists. (SABRIC reports 27% reduction Sep-Dec 2006 compared to 2005) Business robberies “continued to increase” but at a slower rate than 1st 6 months of 2006 Residential robberies: “decreases were not recorded” Residential burglaries: “substantial reduction” after slight increase in 1st 6 months of 2006 Minister of S&S stated in June 2006 and again when stats released in Sept 2006 that some crimes have indeed increased in past 6 monthsMinister of S&S stated in June 2006 and again when stats released in Sept 2006 that some crimes have indeed increased in past 6 months

    17. SABRIC figures Bank robbery: Down from 92 in 2005 to 83 in 2006 Overall decrease of 66% between 2000 and 2006

    18. SABRIC figures (contd) CIT robbery: Up from 520 in 2005 to 545 in 2006 (An increase of 5%) In 2005 the increase was 17% In 2004 there was a decrease of 7%

    19. SABRIC figures (contd) ATM attacks: Increased with 121% from 37 in 2000 to 82 in 2006 During Jan - March 2007 78 incidents already reported 61% of incidents involved the use of explosives

    20. Consumer Goods Council figures CGC members reported armed robberies for the 2004-2006 period: 2004 - 206 2005 - 240 2006 - 262 (A 27% increase over the 3 year period)

    21. Consumer Goods Council (contd) Comparative figures for Jan - Feb 2006/2007: Armed robberies: Jan 2006 - 15 Jan 2007 - 15 (no change) Feb 2006 - 28 Feb 2007 - 16 (43% decrease)

    22. Conclusion Good news: Overall crime levels are coming down, but are still extremely high (e.g. murder has decreased by 41% over 12 year period, but is still approx 8 times the international average)

    23. Conclusion (contd) Aggravated robbery is down from 288 in 2003/04 to 255 in 2005/06 (but is still 55% up from 164 in 1996/97) Bank robbery decreased by 66% between 2000-2006 (but focus seems to have moved to CIT, ATM & shopping centres)

    24. Conclusion (contd) Bad news: CIT robberies increased by 74% betw 2004/05 - 2005/06 (this trend continued in 2006 with a 5% increase since 2005) ATM attacks increased by 121% betw 2005 - 2006, and the 78 attacks for the first 3 months in 2007 already matches the total for 2006 (61% of these attacks explosives used)

    25. Conclusion (contd) Armed robberies at shopping centres increased by 27% over the last three years Some crimes that showed decreases over the last number of years, seems to have leveled out and even slightly increased (e.g. hijackings, car theft)

    26. THANK YOU jburger@issafrica.org

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