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Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call. November 7, 2008. TELUS forward looking statements.
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Q3 2008 TELUS investor conference call November 7, 2008
TELUS forward looking statements This session and answers to questions contain forward-looking statements that require assumptions about expected future events and financial and operating results that are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. There is significant risk that assumptions, predictions and other forward-looking statements will not prove to be accurate. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as a number of factors could cause actual future results, conditions, actions or events to differ materially from the targets, expectations, estimates or intentions expressed. Except as required by law, TELUS disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements, and reserves the right to change, at any time at its sole discretion, its current practice of updating annual guidance. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include, but are not limited to: competition (including more active price competition and the likelihood of new wireless competitors beginning to offer services in 2009 following the AWS spectrum auction); economic growth and fluctuations (including the global credit crisis, and pension performance, funding and expenses); capital expenditure levels (potentially increased in 2009 and future years by the Company’s fourth generation (4G) wireless deployment strategy and any new Industry Canada wireless spectrum auctions); financing and debt requirements (including ability to carry out refinancing activities and fund share repurchases); tax matters (including acceleration or deferral of required payments of significant amounts of cash taxes); human resource developments; business integrations and internal reorganizations (including post-acquisition integration of Emergis); technology (including reliance on systems and information technology, broadband and wireless technology options and choice of suppliers, expected technology and evolution path and transition to 4G technology, expected future benefits and performance of HSPA (high speed packet access) / LTE (long-term evolution) wireless technology, successful implementation of the network build and sharing arrangement with Bell Canada to achieve cost efficiencies and reduce deployment risks, successful deployment and operation of new wireless networks and successful introduction of new products, services and supporting systems); regulatory approvals and developments (including interpretation and application of tower sharing and roaming rules, the design and impact of future spectrum auctions, the new media proceeding and possible changes to foreign ownership restrictions); process risks (including conversion of legacy systems and billing system integrations); health, safety and environmental developments; litigation and legal matters; business continuity events (including manmade and natural threats); any prospective acquisitions or divestitures; and other risk factors discussed herein and listed from time to time in TELUS’ reports and public disclosure documents, including its annual report, annual information form, and other filings with securities commissions in Canada (on www.sedar.com) and in its filings in the United States, including Form 40-F (on EDGAR at www.sec.gov). For further information, see Section 10: Risks and risk management in TELUS’ 2007 annual Management’s discussion and analysis, as well as updates reported in section 10 of TELUS’ 2008 quarterly Management’s discussion and analyses.
Agenda • Wireless and wireline segment review • Consolidated financial review • Updates • Wireless technology evolution • 2008 guidance • Dividend increase • Operating Efficiency Programs • Credit position 3
Q3 2008 TELUS Investor conference call Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer
Wireless Q3 highlights • Strong wireless subscriber results with low COA per gross add • Record Q3 gross and net adds excl. analogue turndown • Postpaid basic service brand launch going well • ARPU • Strong growth in data as smartphone adoption accelerates • Continued decline in voice ARPU • Orderly iDEN to PCS migration for non-PTT users continues • Current period EBITDA impacted by strong subscriber growth, ARPU decrease and increased retention spending • Next generation network sharing agreement with Bell Record Q3 and YTD subscriber loading 5
Wireless segment – Q3 2008 financial results 1 EBITDA (as adjusted) excludes net-cash settlement feature (recovery) expense of $(0.3) million and $2.3 million in the third quarter of 2008 and 2007, respectively Good revenue growth of 9% with EBITDA up only 1% primarily due to record subscriber loading 6
Wireless subscriber results Net additions Wireless subscribers Prepaid 1.2M 177K Prepaid 20% Postpaid 135K 90% Postpaid 80% 73% 4.8M Q3-081 Q3-07 6.0 million total 1 Excludes the impact from analogue network turndown of 27.6K subscribers Record Q3 and YTD subscriber loading 7
Wireless Industry update Source: TELUS estimates and company disclosure Canadian wireless industry generating robust growth 8
Wireless ARPU Data Voice as % of ARPU $64.80 $64.14 7.20 11% 16% 10.19 57.60 89% 53.95 84% Q3-07 Q3-08 Q3-07 Q3-08 Strong data growth close to offsetting voice decline 9
Wireless marketing and retention 1 Q3-08 excludes impact from analogue network turndown of 27.6K subscribers, otherwise churn was 1.68% Record gross adds & 10% improvement in marketing efficiency Investment in retention focused on smartphones 10
Most smartphones on Canada’s largest high-speed network BlackBerry Pearl BlackBerry Curve HTC Touch Diamond BlackBerry Storm Coming Soon! TELUS is a leader in consumer smartphone adoption 11
2008 revised guidance* - wireless segment 1 YoY growth reflects 2007 actuals to midpoint of 2008 revised guidance *See forward looking statement caution Wireless revenue narrowed to low end of range with EBITDA reflecting strong loading and data growth 12
Wireless technology evolution at TELUS • National next generation wireless network build • Using High Speed Packet Access (HSPA) technology • Launching service by early 2010 • Smoothes transition to 4G, long term evolution (LTE) • TELUS benefits from network sharing agreement with Bell: • Lowering costs and increasing speed of national build • Offering widest national coverage by early 2010 • Using existing 850/1900 MHz wireless spectrum See forward looking statement caution Array of benefits for TELUS, our customers and investors 13
Wireline Q3 highlights • Smooth implementation of BC customer care and billing system • Solid revenue growth driven by data growth • Emergis and organic data growth offsetting moderate declines in local and long-distance • Lower high-speed Internet net adds • NAL losses compare well to North American peers • Expenses impacted by large enterprise implementations in Central Canada 14
Wireline segment - revenue profile Data growth more than offset losses in voice 15
Wireline segment – Q3 2008 financial results 1 EBITDA (as adjusted) excludes net-cash settlement feature expenses (recovery) of $0.6M and $(9.5)M, respectively, in the third quarter of 2008 and 2007 EBITDA impacted by increased salaries & benefits, large complex deals, and higher restructuring costs 16
Internet subscribers High-speed Internet net additions Internet subscribers 31K 134K Dial-up 11% 13K High-speed 89% 1.1M 1.2 million total Q3-07 Q3-08 An opportunity for better execution 17
Moderate Network Access Line losses vs. peers 1 Other -3% -3.6% -4.5% -4.7% Q3 2007 -6.9% Q3 2008 -8% -9% -9% 1 Includes a weighted average of Bell, MTS and Bell Aliant TELUS compares favourably to North American peers 18
2008 revised guidance* - wireline segment *See forward looking statement caution 1 YoY growth reflects 2007 actuals to midpoint of 2008 revised guidance Wireline revenue and EBITDA tightened to low end of range 19
Wireless and high-speed Internet driving strong growth 11.5 (millions) 11.0 10.5 Res NALs Bus NALs Dial-up Internet High-speed Internet Wireless Q3-06 Q3-07 Q3-08 Wireless and Internet represent 63% of total connections 20
Consolidated – Q3 2008 financial results 1 EBITDA (as adjusted) excludes net-cash settlement feature expense (recovery) of $0.3M and $(7.2)M, respectively, in Q3-08 and Q3-07 2 EPS (as adjusted) excludes a net-cash settlement feature recovery of 1 cent in Q3-07 and a 2 cent unfavourable adjustment in Q3-08 for a sales tax reassessment relating to prior periods Costs of customer growth depressed margins 21
EPS continuity 0.03 0.03 $1.24 0.03 $0.89 0.28 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 Q3-07 Reported Q3-08 Reported Lower shares o/s Lower 2008 tax rate Financing Costs Cash settled option expense recovery 2007 IT system impact & Amp’d write-down 2007 Tax Adj.1 Dep’n & Amort Rest. & Other 2008 sales tax adjustment EBITDA2 • Includes 2007 settlements of tax related matters and related interest • Before restructuring and normalized to exclude IT systems implementation and Amp’d Mobile costs Lower o/s shares offset by favourable 2007 tax adjustments and higher depreciation & amortization 22
Share buybacks – Normal Course Issuer Bid Returned $707 million to shareholders YTD through share buybacks and quarterly dividend payments 23
TELUS dividend increase Annual dividends • Dividend growth model • 47.5¢ quarterly dividend for January 2, 2009 • Fifth consecutive increase • 5.6% increase over 2008 • At current trading levels, T.A shares yielding 4.9% $1.90 $1.80 $1.50 $1.10 2006 2007 2008 2009E Increase consistent with dividend payout ratio guideline of 45-55% of future sustainable net earnings 24
2008 revised guidance* - consolidated *See forward looking statement caution 1 YoY growth reflects 2007 actuals to midpoint of 2008 revised guidance 2 2008E EBITDA includes $50M of restructuring expenses versus $20.4M in 2007. When excluding restructuring for both periods, YoY growth for 2008E is estimated to be 1% Guidance revised to reflect year-to-date performance Narrowing revenue and earnings ranges 25
TELUS operating efficiency program (OEP) • Latest phase of OEP augments ongoing annual efficiency initiatives since 2001 • Consolidated Technology Strategy, Network Operations and Business Transformation into two business units • Benefits include streamlined operations, more effective deployment of technologies and supporting systems and improved customer service • OEP initiatives underway: • Optimizing layers of management and spans of control • Business process outsourcing • Rationalising products and low value activities • Reducing costs by leveraging new technology platforms (billing, HSPA) • Consolidating vendor purchasing Restructuring estimate raised $20M to $50M for 2008 26
TELUS’ credit position • Strong position with sustainable cash flows and ample liquidity • Net Debt to EBITDA of 1.9X after paying $882M for AWS spectrum • No significant long-term debt to be refinanced until 2011 • Commercial paper providing low-cost source of funds • Could term-out existing short-term financing if conditions are advantageous TELUS’ strong balance sheet a result of prudent long-term financial policies 27
Summary Solid revenue growth Encouraging wireless trends: record subscriber and data revenue growth NAL losses relatively moderate with growth in business lines Minor revisions to guidance reflecting year-to-date results Cost control remains key focus for rest of 2008 and into 2009 Strong balance sheet Fifth consecutive annual dividend increase Dividend increase reflects confidence in future prospects 28
Questions? investor relations 1-800-667-4871 telus.com ir@telus.com
Appendix – Free cash flow 2008 Q3 (excl. spectrum) C$ millions 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 EBITDA 987.0 974.1 974.1 Capex (434.1) (472.3) (472.3) AWS Spectrum - (881.6) 0 Interest expense net paid (39.7) (42.7) (42.7) Cash income taxes; and other (1.1) (1.7) (1.7) Non-cash portion of share-based compensation 3.7 11.8 11.8 Restructuring payments (net of expense) 3.3 (9.4) (9.4) Donations and securitization fees included in other expense (9.2) (4.6) (4.6) 455.2 Free Cash Flow (before cash settled option pmt) 509.9 (426.4) Share based compensation paid (7.0) (3.4) (3.4) 451.8 Free Cash Flow 502.9 (429.8) Issues (redemptions) of common shares, net 0.1 0.1 0.1 Purchase of shares for cancellation (NCIB) (232.2) (75.1) (75.1) Working Capital and Other (151.1) (36.8) (36.8) Funds Available for debt redemption 119.7 (541.6) 340.0 A/R Securitization 50.0 100.0 100.0 Net Issuance (Repayment) of debt (170.9) 431.8 431.8 Increase (Decrease) in cash (1.2) (9.8) 871.8
Appendix - definitions • EBITDA: earnings, after restructuring and workforce reduction costs, before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization • Capital intensity: capex divided by total revenue • Cash flow: EBITDA less capex • Free cash flow: EBITDA, adding Restructuring and workforce reduction costs, cash interest received and excess of share compensation expense over share compensation payments, subtracting cash interest paid, cash taxes, capital expenditures, cash restructuring payments, and cash related to Other expenses such as charitable donations and securitization fees • Cost of retention (COR): total costs to retain existing subscribers, often presented as a percentage of network revenue TELUS definitions for non-GAAP measures