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Diretoria de Pesquisas

Diretoria de Pesquisas. Base Change - Reference 2010 Brazil. ECLAC National Accounts Seminar November 2013 Santiago, Chile. Roberto Luís Olinto Ramos National Accounts Office IBGE. What are the reasons to change the series of the System of National Accounts?. Update the weights

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Diretoria de Pesquisas

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  1. Diretoria de Pesquisas Base Change - Reference 2010 Brazil ECLAC NationalAccountsSeminar November 2013 Santiago, Chile Roberto Luís Olinto Ramos NationalAccounts Office IBGE

  2. What are the reasons to change the series of the System of National Accounts? • Updatetheweights • no longer makes sense because the recommendation is to value the constant price accounts in the previous year prices. • Classification • Database • “Benchmarksurveys” • International recommendations

  3. Changes in Brazilian SNA

  4. Initiallythebasicdillemas:  • Howtoproceedtheupdates? • Waituntilcompletingalltasks? • Howlong? • Accuracy x timeliness. Definition: theupdatescannotgoover and overtheyears.

  5. Initiallythebasicdillemas:  • Howtoproceedtheupdates? • Waituntilcompletingalltasks? • Howlong? • Accuracy x timeliness. The 2010 SUT aren´t ready yet? Definition: theupdatescannotgoover and overtheyears.

  6. if one takes too long… SUT SUT SUT SUT SUT SUT SUT SUT

  7. Actions: • No more thanthreeyears • Recommendationssplitintothreegroups: immediatelyfeasible, feasiblewithin a short time lenght, notfeasibleornotimportant. • The base changeextendsforfiveyears. • Setting a timelinefor new revisions • Seminarsonmethodswith intense users

  8. 2010 CHANGE - Why? • CNAE 2.0 Classification (ISIC Rev. 4) • Database • New data • Surveys periodicity (not annual) • “Benchmark surveys” • International recommendations – 2008

  9. SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS 2008

  10. Improvements Agriculture: - data incorporationfromtheCensus of Agriculture 2006 Manufacturing and Services: - IntermediateConsumptionSurvey - Trade and TransportationMarginsSurveys - Treatment of governmentunits, households, NPIsservinghouseholds;

  11. GFCF - Research and Development: Satellite Account developed with the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation; - Software: to be estimated, the assessment is that it is possible to obtain data; - Database: no data; - Military Equipment: already estimated; - Mineral exploration: current assessment of the available sources;

  12. Government: detailing of the IS Public Corporations (currently with non-financial corporations) Consumption: - Incorporation of data from the Household Budget Survey (POF); - Incorporation of fiscal data of households - Model for allocation of rents based on the Census of Population 2010; - New model for estimating consumption

  13. Multinational Enterprises: we adopted the recommendation Social Security Contributions:The classification of contributions in pension or non pension will not be adopted. That is, there is no detailed information. As for the benefits, disaggregated data is available.

  14. Defined benefits and defined contributions Although there is no specific classification for the operations of this type of plans in the 2008 SNA, their identification is relevant for allocating the contributions. In Brazil, there are technical and operational issues for implementing the recommendations of identifying the type of scheme contributions and benefits, considering the size of the public sector in Brazil and the wide variety of situations among states and municipalities. It remains being the treatment for the Union, with the defined benefit system, but it must consider all provision funds itself (FUNPRESP) to the new servers, which is being regulated, and whose system should be a defined contribution plan.

  15. Value of life insurance production Recommendation to replace the compensation for occurred damages in the calculation of the adjusted production. Not relevant in the case of Brazil, who have no history of natural disasters that have a strong impact on claims paid.

  16. Transition

  17. 3 years • Seminarsfordissemination • Methodologyreportsavailable at thewebsite • Interruption of thedefinitivenationalaccounts series (SUT y IEA) • Quarterlyaccounts as reference • Revision of the complete annual series 1995-2005 (SUT and IEA) • Revision of thequarterly series 1990-2005 (1990 ou 1995?) • Regional Accounts (2002) and GDP Municipalities

  18. Definitions Database 2011 2010 2011/10 ....... 2010 1995 1996.I/2013.IV QUARTERLY 2012 Municipalities Regional

  19. Schedule 2010 Base • Methodologicaldefinitions, 2010 databasecompilation, and estimation of Brazilian SNA 2010 at currentprices. • Estimation of 2011 at current and constantprices and 2010 revision (result of 2011)revisionfrom 2010 to 1995 • Estimation of 2012, quarterly series, Regional Accounts and Municipalities GDP • Publication 1995-2012 – firstquarter

  20. Thankyou.

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