APPlication of energy statistics energy efficiency indicators & Greenhouse gas inventories

1. APPlication of energy statisticsenergy efficiency indicators&Greenhouse gas inventories UN Energy Statistics Workshop Beijing, ChinaSept., 201 Pierre Boileau Head, non-OECD Country Energy Statistics Energy Statistics Division

2. Saving energy in all sectors: Residential Transports Industry Services Electricity generation Increasing exports - reducing imports Increasing domestic (and global) energy security Strengthening RD&D Creating jobs Reducing green house gas (mainly CO2) emissions Why such a high interest in efficiency

3. EFFICIENCY’S ROLE IN CO2 EMISSIONS ABATEMENT 42 Gt Reference Scenario World abatement by technology 40 38 2020 3.8 Gt 2030 13.8 Gt OECD+ 36 34 Efficiency 13.8 Gt 57% 65% 3.8 Gt 32 Other Major Economies 30 Renewables & biofuels Other Countries 23% 19% 28 Nuclear 10% 450 Scenario CCS 13% 10% 26 3% 2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 • More than 50% of the reduction of CO2 emissions should come from energy efficiency

4. China Reduce CO2 intensity of the economy by 40-45% between 2005 and 2020 India Reduce CO2 intensity of the economy by 20% between 2005 and 2020 The European Union: the 20-20-20 programme by 2020 Contribution of energy efficiency to reduce the energy consumption by 20% Russia: Reduce the energy intensity of GDP of the Russian economy by 40% compared to the 2007 levels. Countries are adopting ambitious targets How to verify if countries meet their targets? Identify priorities for energy efficiency policies Assess progresses and failures of policies

5. Why Go Beyond Aggregate Energy Consumption Data? Basic energy statistics Example of Canada’s Residential Sector

6. Why Go Beyond Aggregate Energy Consumption Data? Example of Canada’s Residential Sector

7. Why Go Beyond Aggregate Energy Consumption Data? Example of Canada’s Residential Sector

8. Why Go Beyond Aggregate Energy Consumption Data? Example of Canada’s Residential Sector

9. Why Go Beyond Aggregate Energy Consumption Data? Example of Canada’s Residential Sector

10. Why Go Beyond Aggregate Energy Consumption Data? Example of Canada’s Residential Sector

11. What should be collected: Collecting any statistics has a cost. As a consequence, one should limit the collecting to what is necessary. But what is necessary? Census Modelling Data quality / timeliness Appliances Energy data Residential Industry End uses Process ISIC: 2, 3, or 4 digits Priorities depend on many elements: climate (heating vs. cooling), structure of the economy (industry vs. services) size of the country (transport, domestic aviation), energy mix (biomass), electrification rate, GDP/capita, … Commercial/public Monetary data Fleet of vehicles Socio-economic Frequency Transport Surveys

12. Energy Balance What most countries collect on a regular basis is limited to aggregated levels No breakdown by end use: - heating - DHW - lighting - cooking - air conditioning - appliances No breakdown by end use and by function of buildings (hospitals, schools, hotels, offices, restaurants, etc.) OTHER SECTORS 67380 238 61076 12071 - - - 222197 53401 14230 188090 Residential 46162 - 17598 8895 - - - 222197 24293 12356 156840 Comm. & Pub. Services 5190 - 22302 3177 - - - - 10040 867 11931 Agriculture/Forestry 12155 - 21175 - - - - - 7536 18 14286 Fishing - - - - - - - - - - - Non-specified 3872 238 - - - - - - 11532 988 5033

13. Figure 4. Breakdown of Sectorial Final Consumption by Source in 1973 and 2004 Figure 1. TPES* in 1973 Figure 5. Electricity Generationby Fuel Figure 6. Electricity Consumption/GDP, TPES/GDP and Energy Production/TPES What indicators can be built from the energy balances

14. What data for what indicators TPES/GDP TPES/Production Electricity Cons./Population Aggregated Indicators CO2/GDP PPP Efficiency Elec. Prod. Cons./ton cement Disaggregated Indicators Disaggregated Indicators Heating Cons./sqm/DD Litre/100km (stock) Dry process The focus will be mainly limited to the data needed to build the disaggregated indicators ProcessEfficiency Condensing boiler Litre/100km (vintage)

15. How much energy is consumed to produce a ton of cement, steel, etc? How much energy is used for heating/cooling a square metre of floor in residential? What is the average consumption of gasoline per passenger-km in a car? What is the consumption of electricity in street lighting? No answer to the following questions from the annual questionnaires The lack of detailed data on energy consumption was one of the starting points for the indicators programme

16. Production of commodities COMMODITIES

17. Thermal Energy Requirement per tonne of Clinker by Country including Alternate Fuels

18. Data can be used to estimate potential savings

19. RESIDENTIAL Diffusion, stocks and average consumptionof selected appliances % 106 kWh/unit

20. Household energy use by end use

21. Decomposition of changes in space heatingper capita, 1990-2006

23. International Context for Greenhouse Gases Stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. • 1992: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at Rio de Janeiro conference • 1995 (1996):IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas InventoriesDevelopment of methodologies for gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol. • 1997:Kyoto Protocol (entry into force 2005)Reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions for the period 2008-2012 of about 5% compared to 1990. • 2000: Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. • 2006:2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. • 2008-2012: End of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol

24. Share of energy in GHG emissions (Annex I countries) Source: UNFCCC Key point: Accounting for the largest share of global GHG emissions, energy emissions are predominantly CO2.

25. World CO2 emissions by sector in 2009 Total emissions: 29.0 Gt CO2 Key point: Between 1971 and 2009, the combined share of electricity and heat generation and transport shifted from 1/2 to 2/3 of global emissions.

26. World electricity generation by fuel TWh Non emitting Key point: Although non- and low-emitting sources are growing, electricity generation is becoming more CO2-intensive as a result of coal use.

27. Trend in CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion Gt CO2 Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Key point: Since 1870, CO2 emissions from fuel combustion have risen exponentially.

28. IPCC methodologies • IEA CO2 estimates are calculated using the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines although the IPCC published new Guidelines in 2006. • Kyoto Protocol is based on the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines Tier 1 • Simplest method • Activity data available to all countries Tier 2 • Country or technology-specific emission factor Tier 3 • More detailed or country-specific methods Feasibility Accuracy

29. IPCC methodology: Tier 1 Basic computation for CO2 emissions: • CO2 emissions by product: Fuel Quantity x Emission Factor(with corrections for stored and unoxidised carbon) • Sum over all different products Can be done from two independent sets of data: Supply of fuels to the country Reference Approach Consumption by end-use sectors Sectoral Approach

30. Note on international bunkers IPCC Guidelines: International aviation and international marine bunkers are not included in national totals.

31. 2009 World CO2 emissions Residential only includes emissions from fuels actually combusted in households (hence its relatively small share), not electricity or heat consumption Other only includes industrial waste and non-renewable municipal waste (not biofuels) We show both the reference approach and sectoral approach emissions (the difference coming from statistical differences, and losses and transformation) We show emissions for main activity and autoproducer plants separately (we don’t have the required data to allocate autoproducers to their consuming sectors) Bunker fuels are included in transport for the world total (but excluded for all countries and regions)

32. Revised 1996 Guidelines Step 1: Estimating sectoral fuel consumption Separate sheet filled out for each sector: Main activity producer electricity and heat Unallocated autoproducers Other energy industries Manufacturing industries and construction Transport of which: road Other sectors of which: residential Units: Could be in natural units (e.g. 1000 tonnes) or in energy units (e.g. TJ)

33. Revised 1996 Guidelines Step 2: Converting to a common energy unit Country-specific NCVs for natural gas and coal are given explicitly in the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines

34. Revised 1996 Guidelines Step 3: Multiplying by carbon emission factors

35. Revised 1996 Guidelines Step 4: Calculating carbon stored Default values: fraction of carbon stored Naphtha* 0.8 Lubricants 0.5 Bitumen 1.0 Coal Oils and Tars 0.75 Natural Gas* 0.33 Gas/Diesel Oil* 0.5 LPG* 0.8 Ethane* 0.8 *When used as feedstocks

36. Revised 1996 Guidelines Step 5: Correcting for carbon unoxidised Default values: fraction of carbon oxidised Coal 0.98 Oil and oil products 0.99 Gas 0.995 Peat for elec. Generation 0.99

37. Revised 1996 Guidelines Step 6: Converting to CO2 emissions Multiply by 44/12 (the molecular weight ratio of CO2 to C)

38. Differences between 1996 and 2006 Guidelines Simplified estimation methodology • Emission factors: Rather than separate carbon and CO2 – estimate CO2 directly • Oxidation factors: Rather than differentiate oxidation based on fuels since almost no information is available on this, assume 100% oxidation – simplifies and is more conservative. Also, the oxidation factors are now included directly in the EFs. • Non-energy use: Rather than include all energy and then make assumptions on stored carbon, the activity data explicitly exclude the non-energy use of fuels. • Account for emissions where and when they occur: New methodologies for CO2 captured and stored, new methodologies for CO2 in agricultural soils, forests

39. Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines: Sectoral Approach 2006 IPCC Guidelines: Sectoral Approach Estimating sectoral fuel consumption (Excludes non-energy use of fuels) Estimating sectoral fuel consumption Step 1: Step 1: Converting to a common energy unit(TJ) (Can use default or country-specific NCVs. Country-specific factors improves accuracy) Converting to a common energy unit(TJ) Step 2: Step 2: Multiplying by carbon emission factors Multiplying by carbon dioxide emission factors (conversion by 44/12 included, oxidation = 1) Step 3: Step 3: Calculating carbon stored Step 4: Correcting for carbon unoxidised Step 5: Converting to CO2Emissions (tonnes of CO2) Step 6:

40. 2006 Guidelines Step 1: Estimating sectoral fuel consumption Separate sheet filled out for each sector: Main activity electricity and heat production, Petroleum Refining, Manufacture of Solid Fuels and Other Energy Industries, Iron and Steel, Non-Ferrous Metals, Chemicals, Pulp/Paper/Print, Food Processing/Beverages/Tobacco, Non-Metallic Minerals, Transport Equipment, Machinery, Mining (excl. fuels)/Quarrying, Wood/Wood Products, Construction, Textile/Leather, Non-specified Industry, Commercial/Institutional, Residential, Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing/Fish Farms, Non-specified Stationary Units: Could be in natural units (e.g. 1000 tonnes) or in energy units (e.g. TJ)

41. 2006 Guidelines Step 2: Converting to a common energy unit Country-specific NCVs for natural gas and coal are given explicitly in the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines. The 2006 Guidelines give one default value with upper and lower limits.

42. 2006 Guidelines Step 3: Multiplying by CO2 emission factors

43. Some useful websites on energy efficiency • IEA Statistics - www.iea.org/stats/index.asp • Energy Efficiency Indicators -www.iea.org/topics/energyefficiencyindicators/ • Energy Efficiency Home Page - www.iea.org/topics/energyefficiency/ • CO2 Emissions Data Overview www.iea.org/co2highlights/ Thank you