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Summary of Interim Results*

Summary of the 2015 interim resource adequacy assessment, key changes, impact on LOLP, and future steps for the Technical Committee Meeting. Review of data, model, and implications for summer peaking inadequacy.

rosemaries
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Summary of Interim Results*

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  1. Resource Adequacy Assessment for 2015Interim ResultsResource Adequacy ForumTechnical Committee MeetingJuly 28, 2010

  2. Summary of Interim Results* • Last calibration of deterministic metrics was done in 2008 • Using 2008 model and data, 2015 summer LOLP is 0% • Using current model and data, 2015 summer LOLP is 5.7%** • What happened? * Results not for distribution** Last year’s assessment implied a 5% LOLP (see next slide) 2

  3. Last Year’s Assessmentfor Summer Peaking Adequacy • Used deterministic metric: Sustained Peak Reserve Margin = 24% • Data used • STM loads • Current non-hydro resources • Old 2008 BiOp and hydro peaking • Calculated SPRM = 24% • Implies a 5% LOLP 3

  4. Major Changes and Effects* • Loads: 2008 used HELM ~ 75% • Hydro: Wind reserves, new BiOp, better bypass spill simulation ~ 20% • Model: better hydro flex operation, LLH and HLH purchase ~ 5% * These percentages are illustrative only 4

  5. Monthly LoadsForecast for 2015 using 1929 Temperatures HELM = EPRI’s Hourly Energy Load Model STM = Council’s Short-term Load Forecasting Model 5

  6. Hourly Peak LoadsForecast for 2015 using 1929 Temperatures HELM = EPRI’s Hourly Energy Load Model STM = Council’s Short-term Load Forecasting Model 6

  7. Hydro Peaking Reduction Compared to 2008 Data (MW) 7

  8. Hydro Peaking Reduction due to Wind Reserve Requirements (MW) 8

  9. Where do we go from here? • Complete review of data and model (fall) • Report interim results • Potential summer peaking inadequacy for 2015 • Caveat: the standard is being reviewed • Finish Phase II of Forum’s work plan (review of methodology by early 2011) • Revise standard, if appropriate (early 2011) • Reassess adequacy (June 2011) 9

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