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Qualifiers

Qualifiers. or, how certain are you?. Who takes an umbrella to class if the weather forecaster says…. It will probably rain today. There might be rain today. We doubt it will rain until tonight. Wouldn’t you prefer…. There is a 90% chance rain today.

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Qualifiers

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  1. Qualifiers or, how certain are you?

  2. Who takes an umbrella to class if the weather forecaster says… • It will probablyrain today. • There might be rain today. • We doubt it will rain until tonight.

  3. Wouldn’t you prefer… • There is a 90% chance rain today. • There is a 20% chance rain today. • There is only a 10% chance of rain today, but as a cold front moves in after 5 p.m., there is a 70% chance of thunderstorms this evening.

  4. What about … Consider, for example, you are an ambassador who reads a CIA report that says there is little chance of a terrorist attack against the American Embassy in Cairo at this time. If you were the ambassador in Egypt, do you increase security, leave it where it is, or decrease it (divert resources to other problems)? What if you try to plan a three months ahead?

  5. What if you had odds? If the ambassador believes that there is no more than a one-in-a-hundred chance, he/she may elect to not do very much. If the ambassador believes that there may be as much as a one-in-four chance of an attack, he/she may decide to do quite a bit. The term “little chance” is consistent with either of those interpretations, and there is no way to know what the report writer meant. https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/sherman-kent-and-the-board-of-national-estimates-collected-essays/6words.html

  6. Sherman Kent’s ranking of certainty. The dots represent what “odds” a group of test subjects assigned to various stated certainties like “we doubt.” Notice that some dot groupings are well-defined, others more subject to interpretation. From https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/fig18.gif

  7. “Amount” Qualifiers ____________ student(s) believe(s) in the honor system. Few Most Nearly all Some The vast majority of Almost no About half of all Only a rare Many A slim majority of Rank these qualifiers from most to least

  8. “Time/frequency” Qualifiers Students ___________ initiate an honor cases when they observe “serious” cheating. Consistently Rarely Almost never Usually Often Sometimes Are likely to As often as not Always Frequently

  9. Qualifiers for the rest of us: • Use qualifiers to indicate certainty/amount/frequency • Use qualifiers to convert generalizations into more accurate claims. UVA students believe the single sanction is unfair.Many UVA students believe the single sanction is unfair. http://www.dni.gov/nic/special_keyjudgements.html

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