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Labor Market Information Methodology and uses Part 3

Labor Market Information Methodology and uses Part 3. Dennis Reid Bureau of Labor Statistics San Francisco Regional Office October 2014. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The BLS is the principal fact-finding agency for the Federal Government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics

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Labor Market Information Methodology and uses Part 3

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  1. Labor Market Information Methodology and usesPart 3 Dennis ReidBureau of Labor Statistics San Francisco Regional Office October 2014

  2. Bureau of Labor Statistics • The BLS is the principal fact-finding agency for the Federal Government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics • The BLS mission is to collect, process, analyze and disseminate data • BLS is an independent statistical agency. It serves its diverse user communities by providing products and services that are objective, timely, accurate, and relevant. • Users include the American public, Congress, Federal agencies, state and local governments, businesses, labor organizations

  3. Fed/State Cooperative Programs Partnership with eight States & Guam Contract: LMI & OSHS Cooperative Agreements BLS → States • $, procedures, sample selection, systems, manuals, training (OSHS: 50% funding by law) • Ensure consistency across all states States → BLS • Collect, process and edit the data • Analyze/publish State and area data BLS ↔ States • Policy collaboration via Workforce Information Council and Program Policy Councils

  4. Labor Force Programs Overview • BLS and the Federal/State Cooperative Programs • Comparison of programs • NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) • QCEW (Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages “ES-202”) • CES (Current Employment Statistics) • OES (Occupational Employment Statistics) • CPS (Current Population Survey) • LAUS (Local Area Unemployment Statistics) • JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) • OSHS (Occupational Safety & Health Statistics)

  5. Comparison of Labor Force and OSHS Programs

  6. Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) www.bls.gov/oes

  7. OES Survey • OES collects detailed occupational and wage information by industry and area • Semi-annual establishment survey • Primarily a mail survey • NOT a time series(no overlapping sample units to measure change) • All 50 statesPlus DC, Guam, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands • Big change in 1996: wage collection for all States

  8. OES Sample Design • 1.2 million establishments • 3-year collection cycle • 400,000 surveyed annually in two panels (May and November) • Estimates are based on the total sample of 1.2 million collected over three years (6 panels) • Wage data for 2.5 previous years (5 panels) are updated using ECI-based factors (ECI = Employment Cost Index)

  9. OES Universe and Sampling Frame • BLS draws sample twice a year (2nd, 4th quarters) • QCEW is the sampling frame • Includes establishments in • Nonfarm industries • Agricultural services • Federal, State, and Local governments • Stratified by Area, Industry and Size Class • The larger an establishment, the more likely it will be included in the 3-year OES sample • Sample distribution across states was “fixed” since 1996; dynamic starting in 2010

  10. Workers in scope of OES survey • Full or part-time paid workers • Workers on paid leave • Workers assigned temporarily to other units • Paid owners, officers, and staff of incorporated firms

  11. Workers not in scope of OES survey • Proprietors, owners, and partners of unincorporated firms • Self-employed individuals • Unpaid family workers • Workers on unpaid leave • Contractors & temporary help (not on the establishment’s payroll)

  12. What is an OES Wage? Straight-time gross pay exclusive of premium pay. OES Wage Includes: • Base Rate • Cost-of-Living Allowances • Guaranteed Pay • Hazardous Duty Pay • Portal-to-Portal Pay • Incentive Pay, e.g. Commissions, Piece Rates & Production Bonuses • Length-of-Service Allowances [Longevity Pay] • Tips • Deadheading Pay

  13. Attendance Bonuses Back Pay Draw Premium Pay for Holidays/Weekends Jury Duty Pay Meal & Lodging Allowances Merchandise Discounts Non-Production Bonuses Holiday Bonuses Overtime Pay Profit Sharing Relocation Allowances Severance Pay Shift Differentials Stock Bonuses Uniform Allowance OES Wage excludes:

  14. OES Survey Activities • Draw sample from the universe • Survey form production- by central printer • Mail-out of survey forms - by central printer • Data collection • Data entry • Data review and editing • Estimation • Publication

  15. OES Data Collected Occupation and wage data of all employees for units sampled • This information is stored listing the occupational employment distribution for each unit sampled by wage interval (or range)

  16. Hourly Rates under $9.25 9.25 - 11.74 11.75 - 14.74 14.75 - 18.74 18.75 - 23.99 24.00 - 30.24 30.25 - 38.49 38.50 - 48.99 49.00 - 61.99 62.00 - 78.74 78.75 - 99.99 100.00 and over November 2013 OES Wage Ranges • Annual Rates • under $19,240 • 19,240 - 24,439 • 24,440 - 30,679 • 30,680 - 38,999 • 39,000 - 49,919 • 49,920 - 62,919 • 62,920 - 80,079 • 80,080 - 101,919 • 101,920 - 128,959 • 128,960 - 163,799 • 163,800 - 207,999 • 208,000 and over (Note: Ranges for May 2013 and prior panels were lower)

  17. OES Survey Forms • Are specific to industries or groups of industries(~100 industry-specific versions) • List occupations that occur in the surveyed industry (longest has 225 occupations) • “Non form” reporting • Collection by phone/email; files/printouts In 2009: Web-lite (downloaded fillable form)

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  19. Non-form OES Reporting • Some firms return printouts or electronic payroll files, which are coded by OES State or regional office staff • Some data are collected/coded by regional office National Compensation Survey staff • Many firms report data over the phone • E-mail collection • 2009: Web-lite (downloaded fillable form)

  20. Standard Occupational Classification The standard occupational classification (SOC) is a system designed to: • Classify all occupations in the economy, including private, public, and military occupations • Provide a means to compare occupational data across government agencies Revised periodically: • 2010 revision, finalized in 2009, implemented in 2010 Net new job count is 19; 2 of them “green” http://www.bls.gov/soc/soc2010.pdf • 2018 SOC revision in the works

  21. SOC Classification Levels Broad categories lead to unique 6-digit codes for each occupation: 22 Major groups ; divided into... 98 Minor groups; divided into... 450 Broad occupations; divided into... 800+ Detailed occupations

  22. SOC Structure Example : Major Group: 25-0000 Education, Training, and Library Occupations Minor Group: 25-2000 Teachers, Primary, Secondary & Special Education Broad Occupation: 25-2020 Teachers, Elementary & Middle School Detailed Occupation: 25-2021Teachers, Elementary

  23. OES Data Produced by BLS • Types of estimates Employment Wages (mean, median, 10th, 25th, 75th 90th wage rate percentiles) • Industry Cross-industry and by 3- and 4-digit NAICS Examples: Cross Industry: All Nurses By NAICS industry: Nurses working in hospitals • Geography National, State, MSAs • Special wages for Foreign Labor Certification (FLC) Produced, but not published by BLS States use Estimates Delivery System (EDS)

  24. Some Hawaii OES Data Source: Hawaii State Department of Labor and Industrial Relations, Research and Statistics Office

  25. Users of OES Data • Employment and Training Administration’s Foreign Labor Certification program (FLC) • Job Seekers and Counselors • Vocational Educational Planners • Business Associations • Employers • BLS (for occupational projections)

  26. Employment Projections Background • 10-year projections made every 2 years • 2012-22 projections cover over 800 occupations and 300 industries • BLS projections prepared at the national level only

  27. Labor Force Change by Age Group: Projected 2012-22 In thousands of people

  28. Employment Outlook: 2012-22 Industry Employment

  29. Employment Millions of jobs Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment

  30. Employment Growth Projections Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Hawaii State Department of Labor and Industrial Relations, Research and Statistics Office

  31. Service providing Goods producing Employment Change by Industry Sector: Projected 2012-22 Thousands of wage and salary jobs

  32. Service providing Goods producing Rate of Change in Employment by Industry Sector: Projected 2012-22 Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment Total nonagricultural wage and salary annual growth= 1.0%

  33. Employment Outlook: 2012-22 Occupational Employment

  34. Percent Change vs. Numeric Change

  35. Percent Change in Employment by Major Occupational Group Average= 10.8% Projected 2012-22 (Continued on next slide)

  36. Percent Change in Employment by Major Occupational Group (Continued) Projected 2012-22 Average, all occupations = 10.8%

  37. Employment Change by Major Occupational Group Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22 (Continued on next slide)

  38. Employment Change by Major Occupational Group Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22 (Continued)

  39. Employment Growth vs. Replacement Needs 1,052.6 1,530.

  40. Job Openings by Major Occupational Group Thousands of job openings, projected 2012-22 (Continued on next slide)

  41. Job Openings by Major Occupational Group (Continued) Thousands of job openings, projected 2012-22

  42. Fastest Growing Occupations Percent change, projected 2012-22

  43. Occupations with the Largest Job Growth Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22

  44. Occupations with the Most Job Openings Thousands of job openings, projected 2012-22

  45. Fastest Declining Occupations Percent change, projected 2012-22

  46. Occupations with the Largest Employment Declines Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22

  47. Hawaii: Short-term Forecasts

  48. Dennis ReidAssistant Regional CommissionerSan Francisco415-625-2260reid.dennis@bls.gov

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