FUTURE OF IRRIGATION IN CENTRAL ASIA

1. Vadim Sokolov Scientific-Information Centre Interstate Commission for Water Coordination in Central Asia 20th January 2009 FUTURE OF IRRIGATION IN CENTRAL ASIA IWMI-FAO Workshop on Trends and transitions in Asian Irrigation: What are the prospects for the future? 19-21 January 2009 Bangkok

2. In arid climate of Central Asia water management is an important element of irrigated crop production

3. Indicators for MDGs • Relative importance of agriculture • Irrigated land as percentage of cultivated area • Relative importance of agriculture water withdrawal in water balance • Extent of land salinized by irrigation • Dietary Energy supply Let us look what they are for Central Asia……

4. The Basic Indicators of Water and Land Resources Development in the Aral Sea Basin

5. Actual problems - Destabilizing Factors for Water Management • Water for food security : Irrigated agriculture provides almost 90% of crop production; 88 % of total water resources used for irrigation • Conflicts around Water: - between countries for shares and schedule; - between zones (upper –down watershed); - between sectors of economy (irrigation-hydro power); - between human needs and nature • Water and environment: • Disaster of the Aral Sea and deltas; • Climate change; • Processes of desertification; • Soil salinity and erosion on the irrigated areas; - Decrease of biodiversity • Water quality and human health: - Accelerated water pollution in rivers; - groundwater degradation; - growth of diseases and mortality in downstream zones • Water for socio-economic development: - Population growth; - Irrigation complex creates 30 % of GDP and employs 60% of population; - Huge pumping systems; - Lack of funds fro proper irrigation infrastructure maintenance and development.

6. Three possible ways at the National level for food security • Increase of agricultural production via improvement of water and land productivity • Increase of food import and establishment of the regional food market (regional food trade accounting national specializations) • Change of life style (demand management, control of population growth, dietary changes, etc) The only first one related mostly to water management!

7. Scenarios of the Aral Sea Basin Development • Approaches - formulation • Their assessment • Scenarios: • pessimistic • optimistic • Considering ecology, hydropower engineering, irrigated farming • Objectives • Analyses of trends by playing scenarios of future development, • Analyses of contradictions between national and regional interests, • Search for management solutions that ensure development according to “Optimistic” scenario, • Search for solutions that minimize risks, damages and mistakes.

8. The model of streamflow regulation -tosearch for efficient operating regimes of main reservoirs that wouldprovide maximal regional effects in hydropower engineering, irrigated farming and ecology as well as enforce national interests and minimize risks (damages) caused by un-proper regulation in time periods or under specific conditions (in accordance with interstate treaties, management rules available). • Tools available: • simulation and optimization models of streamflow regulation • Central Asia Regional Information System • (www.cawater-info.net) • simulation model for search regional compromises.

9. The conflict situations could be simulated with the model considering risks and destabilizing factors (mentioned above). Each state could cover all own needs (ecology, hydropower engineering, irrigation, etc.) only based on agreed amount of water from transboundary sources in accordance with an established limited volume or quota. In addition to that, there are some common obligations of states (otherwise, there is no sense to resolve the conflict situations).

10. The principal ICWC achievement is implementation of conflict-free water delivery to the ASB countries during past 17 years. At the same time, management sustainability tends to decrease … What may cause concern: • Drop in political commitment to water as a limited resource, • Lack of attention to transboundary nature of water resources that should be available also for demands of ecosystems, • Degradation of water resources monitoring system and forecasts, and growth of unproductive losses of river flow, • Negative consequences of globalization and the world economic crisis, • Lack of agreed regional development strategy– to coordinate ecological and other demands, levels of water saving, etc.

11. One of the main reasons for remaining tense is uncoordinated decisions made by countries on water resource management in both operative terms and strategic plans for the future. The problemsof the region could be solved only via coordination of national interests and regional constrains, via search for consensus among the countries, sectors and zones by means of consideration of ecological requirements and prevention of damages in social situation, and reduction of extreme situations and conflicts emergence. The search for the consensus implies consideration of alternatives and different variants designed with application of models based on wide range of management criteria (target functions) and economic indicators that provide assessment of the consequences for streamflow control and use.

12. Optimistic scenario The population growth rate tends to decrease and for 2020 it will be at 0.98 % per year Specific water consumption = 9,400m3 per hectare Full Regional Integration Increase inGross Domestic Product: 6-8% 2000-2010 8-10% 2010-2015 ~6% 2015-2020 Specific potable water consumption = 80m3/person/year (220 l/daily)

13. Pessimistic Scenario The population growth rate tends to increase and for 2020 it will be at 1.9 % per year Specific water consumption = 12,000 m3 per hectare No any Regional Integration Increase inGross Domestic Product: 4-6% 2000-2010 6-5% 2010-2015 ~5% 2015-2020 Specific potable water consumption =100m3/person/year (280 l/daily)

14. “Pessimistic”Scenario proposes maintenance of the existing principles for reservoirs operation “Optimistic”Scenario – development in accordance with the coordinated rules of streamflow control, which is based on long-term principles, including compensation mechanisms for damages The regional developmentobjective comes to the search for a joint solutions thatmaximize national and regional interests (benefits) and minimize losses in zones and time periods. For these purposes, it is proposed to allocate a certain water volume from a transboundary water resource during high-water years intended fora long-term streamflow control, and use this volume to cover deficitsof water, energy andsatisfythe ecosystems requirements (so that to ensure theminimal expenditure during any dry years).

15. Principal provisions: • Hydropower considered as commercial sector, but water considered primarily as social and ecological asset, and only under specific conditions water might be considered as an economic good • Sanitary and ecological releases should be guaranteed at the minimal level during any water scarce years • In the cases of demand increase in comparison with multi-year average level, hydropower engineering and irrigated farming should cover their water demand by the use of seasonal and long-term reservoir capacity through introduction of tariff system for streamflow regulation

16. Investors World marketand prices Domestic Central Asian market and prices Zones with energy deficit Zones with energy excess Zones with water excess Zones with water deficit Cooperation principles Interest of neighbouring states (Russia, China, etc.) Resources exported Proposed Framework that ensures sustainable water and power sharing between the countries and uses favorable terms oftrade-offs in accordance with agreed integration principles (optimistic scenario)

17. Northern Aral Inflow Syrdarya river Max level 47 m H2025 = 47 m S2025 = 10 g/l Max level 42 m H2025 = 42 m S2025 = 11 g/l Priaralie water consumption Wyr= 1.5 km3 Wyear = 1.6 km3Syear = 4.0 g/l Wyr = 3.5km3 Syr = 3.6g/l OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO + MAX FLOW Amudaryariver Inflow Big Aral Priaralie

18. Scenario for regulation regime Deficit for irrigation (km3/year) Electricity deficit (10x9 kW/hour) Uzbekistan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan mean max mean max mean max Hydropower 1.17 2.12 0.53 1.29 0.05 0.85 Irrigation 0.07 0.51 0.05 0.46 2.41 4.40 Hydropower - Irrigation 0.17 0.70 0.11 0.53 1.29 2.10 Hydropower + Kambarata 0.80 1.82 0.40 0.96 0.00 0.00 Hydropower - Irrigation + Kambarata 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 The Syrdarya Basin: Assessment of future prospects

19. The impact of Rogun HPS (full reservoir levelis 1290 m) on economic indicators of development of the countries within the Amudarya basin for the period up to 2055 (million $/year) Increase (+) or decrease (-) of production are given in comparison with the present situation characterized by water deficit during low-water years (when water deficit could be covered by Nurek reservoir). Combined mode: Rogunworks in energy regime and Nurek in a compensatory irrigation regime. At a combined regime of Rogun and Nurek, additional damages in irrigation are observed.

20. The modeling outcomes show that in a view of 2025 perspective, when the regional population will achieve as the minimum 55 million inhabitants, the available water resources might satisfy needs of the society and environment if coordinated cooperation of all the countries will be addressing to decrease water and electricity consumption by 10-15 %. Regional scenarios should include coordination and stimulation of national activities. BUT, National scenarios should be verified by regional constrains. Information uncertainty in this area undermines national and regional initiatives on improvement of water resources management, and also make efforts of international organizations supporting integration less effective.

21. The General Challenges ahead • How to increase water conveyance efficiency – taking into account huge power consumption by pumping systems for irrigation and big unproductive conveyance losses. • Modernization and authomation of the main conveyance structures – computer control of water distribution and applications – way to “Hydro-Solidarity”. • Irrigation scheduling - timing of applied water – way to improve application efficiency. • Combination of improved irrigation practices with other advanced practices (cultivation, chemigation, nutrient and pest management, etc) – way to enhance crop production. • Management of return waters – way to improve collection and disposal of polluted water and where it is possible to re-use them for salt-tolerant crops. • Soil salinity control by proper drainage (control of groundwater level) and leaching of irrigated lands.

22. The Key Issues Required More Attention • Water Conservation and Reallocation – through improved management of irrigation supplies to meeting increased water needs for future agriculture. • Productivity – use water more effective – maximum production per minimum water. Improved water management - way to reduce expenditures for energy, chemicals and labor inputs, while enhancing revenues through higher crop yields and improved crop quality. From Actual Productivity to Potential Productivity! (some examples from the IWRM-Fergana Project)

23. The way for the best practices dissemination… …is creation of the extension service on the base of existed demonstration plots. At the initial stage, it is necessary to be oriented to productivity growth acceptable for different particular farmers. During this stage the costs of extension service should be covered with governmental support. State support is needed both for extension services providers and for farmers. In the prospective horizons the share of farmers will increase accordingly to their production capability and economic growth.

24. Basic factors of irrigation efficiency improvement • Unstable water availability in conveyance system • Improperly selected parameters of irrigation systems and water application technology • High rates of water application due to big losses from irrigated fields for infiltration and escapes • Improper other practices affecting irrigation - land cultivation dates and its bad quality performance, for example. Farm “Turdialy”

25. Comparative Assessment of Irrigation Efficiency and Water Saving in the Result of Recommended Measures

26. Comparative Crop Production Indicators as Intervention of Consultancy

27. Causes for Conveyance Losses and Mitigation Measures

28. Reforming Water Management - institutional arrangements and public participation

29. Instruments for Sectors Integration • Integrated planning of water use • Co-ordination of the driving forces for economic growth in sectors • Data exchange • Participation in material and financial inputs that are of mutual interests.

30. Legislative and Economic Tools • Water rights and their protection by the Government • Contractual relationship between water users and water agencies, and also between water agencies operating at different hierarchical levels • The law on a liability for infringing water rights and contractual relationships • Payment for water supply and other servicing of water users • Penalties for water pollution • Fee for water as resource (still discussible) • Governmental control for rights and duties of water management organizations and water users, as well as the state liability regarding support to both sides • Providing incentive and preferential terms both for water users and water management organizations under rational water use • Fines for surplus water withdrawal from the water supply system

31. Managerial Tools • Keeping records of water on the way from the basin to the end user, strict water demand rationing • Drafting the coordinated plans of water allocation and use at all hierarchical levels of water management that include control of organizational water losses • Reporting that shall provide not only annual and quarterly reports but also an operational reports containing specified criteria and indicators for timely adjustment of water supply • Improving the dispatcher control to ensure equitable and sustainable water supply upholding the priorities of eco-systems and municipal and industrial water users as well as the observance of limits related to water infrastructure safety • Adjustment of water use plans based on tailor-made computer models in case of changes in hydrologic, climatic, economic, and other conditions.

32. Thank you for attention !!! Additional information: www.cawater-info.net vadim@icwc-aral.uz