From Shakespeare to Spielberg (with apologies to Paul Slovic):

1. From Shakespeare to Spielberg (with apologies to Paul Slovic): Some Reflections on Modes of Decision Making Elke U. Weber J/DM Meeting November 1998

2. What a piece of work is man. How noble in reason. How infinite in faculty. In apprehension how like a god! Hamlet, II, ii • I've got a bad feeling about this! Raiders of the Lost Ark • Feel the force, Luke. Star Wars

3. Qualitatively-different Modes of Making Decisions • Cost-benefit-based decision making (Edwards, 1954; von Winterfeldt & Edwards, 1986; Payne, Bettman, & Johnson, 1993) • Category-based or rule-based decision making (Simon, 1990; Beach & Mitchell, 1987, 1990): • nondeliberative decisions (Ronis, Yates, & Kirscht, 1989) • stereotype-based decisions (Fiske & Pavelchak, 1986) • case-based decisions (Chase & Simon, 1973; Klein, 1998) • principle-based decisions (Prelec & Herrnstein, 1991)

4. Role-based decision making (March, 1994) • Reason- or argument-based decision making (Shafir, Simonson, & Tversky, 1993; Hogarth & Kunreuther, 1995; Tyszka, 1998) • Affect-based decision making (Damasio, 1993; Epstein, 1994; Loewenstein, Weber, Hsee & Welch, 1998; Wright, 1975) • Story-based decision making (Pennington & Hastie, 1988, 1992, 1993; Goldstein & Weber, 1995)

5. Emerging list of qualitatively-different decision modes • Calls for a meta-decision framework that predicts (implicit) decision mode selection • Decision mode prediction matters because mode often affects/dictates outcome

6. Conceptual extension of the pioneering Adaptive-Decision-Maker program of Payne, Bettman, & Johnson (1988, 1993) • broader range of decision modes • broader range of selection criteria • beyond effort and accuracy

7. Decision Making as Constrained Optimization • Specification of Objective Function • Identification of Constraints

8. Identification of Constraints • Cognitive Limitations (Simon, 1954) • attention • working memory • Emotional Limitations • finite pool of resilience (Linville & Fischer, 1991) • self-control problems • mental accounting (Thaler, 1985) • precommitment strategies (Ainslie, 1975)

9. Identification of Constraints • Extremely productive chapter in history of J/DM • Chapter that is written

10. MoreAccurateSpecificationofObjectiveFunction • Selten (1997) • economic conceptualization of human motivation is incomplete at best

11. In addition to material well-being, people have been shown to care about • post-decisional consequences and comparisons • Loomes & Sugden, 1982; Mellers, Schwartz, & Ritov, 1997; Birnbaum & Stegner, 1979; Weber, 1994 • fairness and justice • Mellers & Baron, 1993 • justifiability • Shafir, Simonson, & Tversky, 1993; Tetlock, 1992 • confidence and self-esteem • Larrick, 1993

12. Habermas’ (1972) taxonomy of human interests and concerns • technical concerns: instrumental action • practical concerns: social understanding • emancipatory concerns: reflection, autonomy

13. Predictive framework of (implicit) decision mode selection • Predictor variables should include • characteristics of decision maker • basic human motivation • individual differences • cultural differences • characteristics of decision situation • decision context • decision content

14. Content-Dependence of Decision Making • Goldstein and Weber (1995) show progression from content-independent to content-dependent theorizing in • memory • learning • deductive reasoning • evidence of necessity of content-dependent theory for decision making (Frisch, 1993; Gigerenzer & Hug, 1992)

15. Decision Mode Selection as Mechanism for Content Dependence • different content domains prime different facets of human motivation • different needs are best served by different decision modes • different decisions modes can lead to different choices

16. How does decision mode selection work at a process level? • Must involve similarity-based recognition process • Research approach: Make implicit categorization explicit • Tada & Weber, 1998

17. Unanswered questions related to availability of different ways of making decision • Need for research on use of multiple modes of decision making • Loewenstein, Weber, Hsee, and Welch (1998) argue for primacy of emotion-based decision making in risky choice • yet, decisions are probably usually made on multiple levels

18. Questions related to multiple modes of decision making • Do modes operate sequentially or in parallel? • How do they combine? • Race model? Majority rule? Average solution? • How are conflicts in suggested course of action resolved? • Is confidence in final answer related to such conflicts?

19. Summary • broader conceptualization of human nature may provide more descriptive objective functions • broader appreciation of the adaptive functions of different decision modes will help in predicting decision mode selection • studying criteria and processes by which people (implicitly) select decision modes may provide parsimoneous explanation of content-dependence of decision making

20. References • Ainslie, G. (1975). Specious reward: A behavioral theory of impulsiveness and impulse control. Psychological Bulletin, 82, 463-496. • Beach, L.R. (1990). Image theory: Decision Making in Personal and Organizational contexts. Chichester, UK: John Wiley. • Beach, L.R., & Mitchell, T.R. (1987). Image theory: Principles, plans, and goals in decision making. Acta Psychologica, 66, 201-220. • Beach, L.R., & Mitchell, T.R. (1990). Image theory: A behavioral theory of decisions in organizations. In B. M. Staw & L. L. Cummings (Eds.), Research in Organizational Behavior (Vol. 12). Greenwich, CT: JAI Press. • Birnbaum, M. H., & Stegner, S. E. (1979). Source credibility in social judgment: Bias, expertise, and the judge’s point of view. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37, 48-74. • Blais, A.-R., & Weber, E. U. (1998). Women, decision content, and other dangerous things. Working Paper, Center for Behavioral Decision Theory, Ohio State University. • Chase, W.G., & Simon, H.A. (1973). Perception in chess. Cognitive Psychology, 4, 55-81. • Damasio, A. R. (1993). Descartes’ Error. New York: Avon Books. • Edwards, W. (1954). The theory of decision making. Psychological Bulletin, 51, 380-417. • Epstein, S. (1994). Integration of the cognitive and the psychodynamic unconscious. American Psychologist, 49, 709-724. • Fein, E., & Weber, E. U. (1998). Content-specific methods of decision making. Working Paper, Center for Behavioral Decision Theory, Ohio State University. • Fiske, S.T., & Pavelchak, M.A. (1986). Category-based versus piecemeal-based affective responses: Developments in schema-triggered affect. In R.. Sorrentino & E.T. Higgins (Eds.), Handbook of Motivation and Cognition: Foundations of Social Behavior (pp. 167-203). New York: Guilford Press. • Frisch, D. (1993). Reasons for framing effects. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 54, 399-429. • Gigerenzer, G., & Hug, K. (1992). Domain-specific reasoning: Social contracts, cheating, and perspective changes. Cognition, 43, 127-171.

21. References, cont’d • Goldstein, W. M. & Weber, E. U. (1995). Content and its discontents: The use of knowledge in decision making. In J. R. Busemeyer, R. Hastie, D. L. Medin (Eds.) Decision making from a cognitive perspective. The Psychology of Learning and Motivation, Vol. 32 (pp. 83-136). New York: Academic Press. • Habermas, J. (1972). Knowledge and Human Interests. Boston, MA: Beacon Press. • Hogarth, R., & Kunreuther, H. (1995). Decision making under ignorance: Arguing with yourself. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 10, 15-36. • Klein, G. (1998). Sources of power: How people make decisions. MIT Press. • Larrick, R.P. (1993). Motivational factors in decision theories: The role of self-protection. Psychological Bulletin, 113, 440-450. • Linville, P.W., & Fischer, G.W. (1991). Preferences for separating or combining events. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 59, 5-21. • Loewenstein, G.F., Weber, E.U., Hsee, C.K., & Welch, E. (1998). Risk as feelings. Working Paper, CMU. • Loomes, G., & Sugden, R. (1982). Regret theory: An alternative theory of rational choice under uncertainty. Economic Journal, 92, 805-824. • March, J. G. (1994). A Primer of Decision Making: How Decisions Happen. New York: The Free Press. • Mellers, B.A., & Baron, J. (Eds.). (1993). Psychological Perspectives on Justice: Theory and Applications. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. • Mellers, B. A., Schwartz, A., Ho, K., Ritov, I. (1997). Decision affect theory: Emotional reactions to the outcomes of risky options. Psychological Science, 8, 423-429. • Payne, J.W., Bettman, J.R., & Johnson, E.J. (1988). Adaptive strategy selection in decision making. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 14, 534-552. • Payne, J.W., Bettman, J.R., & Johnson, E.J. (1993). The Adaptive Decision Maker. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. • Pennington, N., & Hastie, R. (1988). Explanation-based decision making: The effects of memory structure on judgment. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 14, 521-533.

22. References, cont’d • Pennington, N., & Hastie, R. (1992). Explaining the evidence: Tests of the story model for juror decision making. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 62, 189-206. • Pennington, N., & Hastie, R. (1993). Reasoning in explanation-based decision making. Cognition, 49, 123-163. • Prelec, D. & Herrnstein, R. (1991). Preferences or principles: Alternative guidelines for choice. In R. J. Zeckhauser (Ed.), Strategy and Choice. Cambridge: MIT Press. • Rabin, M. (1993). Incorporating fairness into game theory and economics. American Economic Review, 83,1281-1302. • Ronis, D.L., Yates, J.F., & Kirscht, J.P. (1989). Attitudes, decisions, and habits as determinants of repeated behavior. In A.R. Pratkanis, S.J. Breckler, & A.G. Greenwald (Eds.), Attitude Structure and Function (pp. 213-239). Hillsdale, N.J.Erlbaum. • Selten, R. (1997). Features of experimentally observed bounded rationality. Discussion Paper B-421, University of Bonn. • Shafir, E., Simonson, I., & Tversky, A. (1993). Reason-based choice. Cognition, 49, 11-36. • Simon, H.A. (1956). Rational choice and the structure of the environment. Psychological Review, 63, 129-138. • Simon, H.A. (1990). Invariant of human behavior. Annual Review of Psychology, 41, 1-19. • Tada, Y., & Weber, E. U. (1998). Representing psychological dimensions of decisions: Implications for behavioral decision models. Proceedings of the Twentieth Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 1049-1054). Hillsdale NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum. • Tetlock, P. E. (1992). The impact of accountability on judgment and choice: Toward a social contingency model. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 25, 331-376 • Thaler, R. (1985). Mental accounting and consumer choice. Marketing Science, 4, 199-214. • Tyszka, T. (1998). Two pairs of conflicting motives in decision making. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 74, 189-211. • Weber, E. U. (1994). From subjective probabilities to decision weights: The effect of asymmetric loss functions on the evaluation of uncertain outcomes and events. Psychological Bulletin, 115, 228‑242. • Wright, P. (1975). Consumer choice strategies: Simplifying vs. optimizing. Journal of Marketing Research, 11, 60-67.

23. References • Ainslie, G. (1975). Specious reward: A behavioral theory of impulsiveness and impulse control. Psychological Bulletin, 82, 463-496. • Beach, L.R. (1990). Image theory: Decision Making in Personal and Organizational contexts. Chichester, UK: John Wiley. • Beach, L.R., & Mitchell, T.R. (1987). Image theory: Principles, plans, and goals in decision making. Acta Psychologica, 66, 201-220. • Beach, L.R., & Mitchell, T.R. (1990). Image theory: A behavioral theory of decisions in organizations. In B. M. Staw & L. L. Cummings (Eds.), Research in Organizational Behavior (Vol. 12). Greenwich, CT: JAI Press. • Birnbaum, M. H., & Stegner, S. E. (1979). Source credibility in social judgment: Bias, expertise, and the judge’s point of view. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37, 48-74. • Blais, A.-R., & Weber, E. U. (1998). Women, decision content, and other dangerous things. Working Paper, Center for Behavioral Decision Theory, Ohio State University. • Chase, W.G., & Simon, H.A. (1973). Perception in chess. Cognitive Psychology, 4, 55-81. • Damasio, A. R. (1993). Descartes’ Error. New York: Avon Books. • Edwards, W. (1954). The theory of decision making. Psychological Bulletin, 51, 380-417. • Epstein, S. (1994). Integration of the cognitive and the psychodynamic unconscious. American Psychologist, 49, 709-724. • Fein, E., & Weber, E. U. (1998). Content-specific methods of decision making. Working Paper, Center for Behavioral Decision Theory, Ohio State University. • Fiske, S.T., & Pavelchak, M.A. (1986). Category-based versus piecemeal-based affective responses: Developments in schema-triggered affect. In R.. Sorrentino & E.T. Higgins (Eds.), Handbook of Motivation and Cognition: Foundations of Social Behavior (pp. 167-203). New York: Guilford Press. • Frisch, D. (1993). Reasons for framing effects. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 54, 399-429. • Gigerenzer, G., & Hug, K. (1992). Domain-specific reasoning: Social contracts, cheating, and perspective changes. Cognition, 43, 127-171. • Goldstein, W. M. & Weber, E. U. (1995). Content and its discontents: The use of knowledge in decision making. In J. R. Busemeyer, R. Hastie, D. L. Medin (Eds.) Decision making from a cognitive perspective. The Psychology of Learning and Motivation, Vol. 32 (pp. 83-136). New York: Academic Press. • Habermas, J. (1972). Knowledge and Human Interests. Boston, MA: Beacon Press. • Hogarth, R., & Kunreuther, H. (1995). Decision making under ignorance: Arguing with yourself. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 10, 15-36. • Klein, G. (1998). Sources of power: How people make decisions. MIT Press. • Larrick, R.P. (1993). Motivational factors in decision theories: The role of self-protection. Psychological Bulletin, 113, 440-450. • Linville, P.W., & Fischer, G.W. (1991). Preferences for separating or combining events. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 59, 5-21. • Loewenstein, G.F., Weber, E.U., Hsee, C.K., & Welch, E. (1998). Risk as feelings. Working Paper, CMU. • Loomes, G., & Sugden, R. (1982). Regret theory: An alternative theory of rational choice under uncertainty. Economic Journal, 92, 805-824. • March, J. G. (1994). A Primer of Decision Making: How Decisions Happen. New York: The Free Press. • Mellers, B.A., & Baron, J. (Eds.). (1993). Psychological Perspectives on Justice: Theory and Applications. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. • Mellers, B. A., Schwartz, A., Ho, K., Ritov, I. (1997). Decision affect theory: Emotional reactions to the outcomes of risky options. Psychological Science, 8, 423-429. • Payne, J.W., Bettman, J.R., & Johnson, E.J. (1988). Adaptive strategy selection in decision making. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 14, 534-552. • Payne, J.W., Bettman, J.R., & Johnson, E.J. (1993). The Adaptive Decision Maker. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. • Pennington, N., & Hastie, R. (1988). Explanation-based decision making: The effects of memory structure on judgment. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 14, 521-533. • Pennington, N., & Hastie, R. (1992). Explaining the evidence: Tests of the story model for juror decision making. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 62, 189-206. • Pennington, N., & Hastie, R. (1993). Reasoning in explanation-based decision making. Cognition, 49, 123-163. • Prelec, D. & Herrnstein, R. (1991). Preferences or principles: Alternative guidelines for choice. In R. J. Zeckhauser (Ed.), Strategy and Choice. Cambridge: MIT Press. • Rabin, M. (1993). Incorporating fairness into game theory and economics. American Economic Review, 83,1281-1302. • Ronis, D.L., Yates, J.F., & Kirscht, J.P. (1989). Attitudes, decisions, and habits as determinants of repeated behavior. In A.R. Pratkanis, S.J. Breckler, & A.G. Greenwald (Eds.), Attitude Structure and Function (pp. 213-239). Hillsdale, N.J.Erlbaum. • Selten, R. (1997). Features of experimentally observed bounded rationality. Discussion Paper B-421, University of Bonn. • Shafir, E., Simonson, I., & Tversky, A. (1993). Reason-based choice. Cognition, 49, 11-36. • Simon, H.A. (1956). Rational choice and the structure of the environment. Psychological Review, 63, 129-138. • Simon, H.A. (1990). Invariant of human behavior. Annual Review of Psychology, 41, 1-19. • Tada, Y., & Weber, E. U. (1998). Representing psychological dimensions of decisions: Implications for behavioral decision models. Proceedings of the Twentieth Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 1049-1054). Hillsdale NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum. • Tetlock, P. E. (1992). The impact of accountability on judgment and choice: Toward a social contingency model. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 25, 331-376 • Thaler, R. (1985). Mental accounting and consumer choice. Marketing Science, 4, 199-214. • Tyszka, T. (1998). Two pairs of conflicting motives in decision making. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 74, 189-211. • Weber, E. U. (1994). From subjective probabilities to decision weights: The effect of asymmetric loss functions on the evaluation of uncertain outcomes and events. Psychological Bulletin, 115, 228‑242. • Wright, P. (1975). Consumer choice strategies: Simplifying vs. optimizing. Journal of Marketing Research, 11, 60-67.