Future Challenges in Transport Fuels: Achievements and Conclusions

1. Inland Transport Committee Round Table, 20 February 2002, Geneva Transport Fuels for the Future Neville Thompson, David Rickeard CONCAWE

2. TRANSPORT FUELS FOR THE FUTURE • Achievements to date, future challenges • Drivers for changes to fuels • Fuels for advanced conventional vehicles • Fuel requirements of longer term vehicle options • CONCAWE activities • Conclusions

3. DRAMATIC REDUCTION IN REGULATED EMISSIONS

4. Source : European Commission NEW FOCUS ON GREENHOUSE GASES Future challenge: Reduce CO2 while maintaining low regulated emissions

5. Lead  Major reductions in gasoline emissions through catalytic converters + lead-free gasoline Further reductions in emissions through low sulphur fuels + advanced after-treatment systems for gasoline and diesel vehicles Sulphur  MAJOR IMPROVEMENTS IN FUEL QUALITY ACHIEVED • Real benefits when fuel change enables a step change in engine / after-treatment technology

6. TRANSPORT FUELS FOR THE FUTURE • Achievements to date, future challenges • Drivers for changes to fuels • Fuels for advanced conventional vehicles • Fuel requirements of longer term vehicle options • CONCAWE activities • Conclusions

7. FUTURE FUEL NEEDS DEPEND ON VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY • Conventional vehicle developments • Advanced gasoline engines • Direct Injection, Variable Valve Actuation, Downsizing • Improved diesel engines • Multiple high pressure injections, Exhaust gas recirculation • Advanced after-treatment • Lean NOx converters, PM traps, Improved TWC • Hybrids ===> Sulphur-free fuels meet the needs of all these vehicles • Novel combustion systems e.g. HCCI need more study • Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles • Best way to deliver hydrogen to the vehicle still unclear • Gasoline-type, methanol, direct hydrogen ? ===> New fuels will be required, but more work needed

8. CONVENTIONAL VEHICLES DOMINATE FUTURE MARKET • Changes will be gradual as new vehicles enter the fleet • Increased diesel / reduced gasoline demand expected • Slow penetration of new technologies, e.g. fuel cell vehicles Source: EUCAR

9. TRANSPORT FUELS FOR THE FUTURE • Achievements to date, future challenges • Drivers for changes to fuels • Fuels for advanced conventional vehicles • Fuel requirements of longer term vehicle options • CONCAWE activities • Conclusions

10. LOWER SULPHUR FUELS ENABLE ADVANCED VEHICLES • Advanced engines and after-treatment systems can achieve very low emissions with low Sulphur fuels LD Diesel NEDC emissions Source: DETR/SMMT/CONCAWE Particulates programme and AECC • Influence of other fuel properties becomes small

11. REFINERY CO2 INCREASES WITH FUEL CHANGES Refinery CO2 Emissions, EU-15 • Future fuel changes need careful evaluation on a well-to-wheels basis Source: CONCAWE

12. GHG EMISSIONS NEED WELL-TO-WHEELS APPROACH • Conventional fuels require a relatively small proportion of energy for their manufacture • Reducing C/H ratio by hydrogenation is always CO2 negative • Energy use and GHG emissions in production of alternative fuels can be substantial • Well-to-wheels approach is needed to identify the best options • Definitive answers not easy • Results very sensitive to the input assumptions • Ongoing research effort needed • CONCAWE actively involved

13. ALTERNATIVE FUELS FOR IC ENGINES • No clear advantage for alternative fuels in Internal Combustion Engines • Hybrid vehicles show promise Source: Shell, SAE Paper 2001-01-1343

14. BIOFUELS PROVIDE LIMITED OVERALL ENERGY CREDIT Net Energy Saved • Benefits highly dependent on assumptions on use of co-products • Use of all set-aside land in EU-15 would replace < 2% of road transport fuels on an energy basis Probably achievable Better Source: CONCAWE

15. BIOFUELS PROVIDE LIMITED OVERALL GHG CREDIT GHG reduction versus conventional fuels • Assumptions on agricultural N2O emissions are critical • Other measures to reduce CO2 emissions are more cost effective RME, accounting for N2O emissions, refs 4&5 Better Source: CONCAWE

16. TRANSPORT FUELS FOR THE FUTURE • Achievements to date, future challenges • Drivers for changes to fuels • Fuels for advanced conventional vehicles • Fuel requirements of longer term vehicle options • CONCAWE activities • Conclusions

17. WHY ARE FUEL CELL VEHICLES ATTRACTIVE? • Potential for high vehicle efficiency • Hence lower CO2 emissions • Very low or zero regulated pollutant emissions GM HydroGen 1 TOYOTA FCHV-3 • Cautions: Development at an early stage Conventional vehicles compete strongly Best source of hydrogen not yet clear

18. FUEL CELLS NEED CLEAN HYDROGEN • Free hydrogen does not exist naturally • Hydrogen is an energy carrier, not a source • It has to be generated from naturally occurring compounds • Implies energy use and hence GHG emissions • Hydrogen can be delivered to the vehicle in two ways • Direct hydrogen supply to the vehicle • On-board the vehicle using a hydrogen containing fluid • More work is needed on production, supply and storage issues • Codes and standards for safe use also important

19. Photovoltaics Electrolysis Hydrogen Hydrogen FCV RENEWABLE HYDROGEN HAS LONG TERM POTENTIAL • A renewable source of hydrogen would avoid carbon emissions • Large scale renewable hydrogen remains a long way off • Currently high cost, small volumes • Lack of hydrogen storage/distribution infrastructure • Near term options still being developed • direct hydrogen • on-board reforming of liquid fuels

20. Simplest vehicle system No emissions on the vehicle Higher energy density Low emissions Highest energy density Provides highest well to wheel efficiency Infrastructure exists Low emissions Efficient/safe storage solution Emissions from hydrogen production Low energy density Infrastructure development Requires on-board processor Fuel is toxic and water soluble Infrastructure development Requires on-board processor FUEL CELL FUELS - THE OPTIONS Fuel Supplied to Vehicle Challenges Benefits • Hydrogen • Methanol • Liquid Hydrocarbons, e.g. gasoline On-board reforming of hydrocarbon fuels appears the best near term option

21. FUEL CELLS AND HYBRIDS OFFER CO2 IMPROVEMENTS • Hydrogen from electrolysis is inefficient with conventional electricity • Renewable or nuclear electricity would change the balance Source: GM-Argonne study based on US data. European study underway

22. 1 GWh of renewable electricity Produce hydrogen by Electrolysis for use in fuel cell vehicle to replace gasoline hybrid-electric vehicle Feed to power grid to replace coal-generated power CO2 avoided 972 t CO2 avoided 390 t RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY TO HYDROGEN ? • Renewable electricity is a limited resource • Can be used in different ways • Producing hydrogen for fuel cell vehicles does not maximise the overall GHG benefit

23. TRANSPORT FUELS FOR THE FUTURE • Achievements to date, future challenges • Drivers for changes to fuels • Fuels for advanced conventional vehicles • Fuel requirements of longer term vehicle options • CONCAWE activities • Conclusions

24. CONCAWE ACTIVITIES • CONCAWE committed to principles that developments should be based on sound science, transparency and cost-effectiveness Technology surveys - emissions legislation, - fuel qualities, - engines/after-treatment Fuel requirements of advanced engines - diesel - gasoline Technical input on legislative developments Well to wheels analysis on alternate fuels/vehicles - EUCAR/JRC partnership Particulate emissions - DG TREN Consortium - GRPE programme

25. Co-operative work involving all stakeholders critical to achieving the optimal long term solutions CONCLUSIONS • Conventional fuels and vehicles will dominate road transport for the foreseeable future • Lower sulphur maximises the potential of advanced vehicle emissions systems • Changes to other fuel properties provide little emissions benefit • Increased application of biofuels needs careful assessment • Fuel requirements of advanced engines need to be assessed as the systems are developed • Fuel cell vehicles have promise but remain far from volume production • Large scale renewable hydrogen remains far off • On-board reforming of hydrocarbon fuel is a promising option • Sound “well to wheels” studies are key to evaluating future options • CONCAWE actively supporting work in this area