T SEC-BIOSYS: A whole systems approach to bioenergy demand and supply www.tsec-biosys.ac.uk Damiete Ogunkunle Univers

1. TSEC-BIOSYS: A whole systems approach to bioenergy demand and supply www.tsec-biosys.ac.uk Damiete Ogunkunle University of Surrey Biomass role in the UK energy futures The Royal Society, London: 28th & 29th July 2009 1

2. Implications of Long Term UK Bioenergy Scenarios Using a Novel Problem Structuring Approach in Conjunction with Markal Modelling

3. Objectives • Explore the implications of long term UK Bio-Energy Scenarios • Formulation of a qualitative framework which reflect stakeholder concerns • Link with quantitative insights from Markal • Present implications (risks and opportunities) of the BioSys scenarios • Present possible policy implications

4. Formulation of the Qualitative Framework The Trilemma System Map

5. An Example of a System Element (Trilemma) Stasis Vested Interest Risk Aversion Innovation Incremental change Radical Innovation The Technological Progression Trilemma

6. The Qualitative Framework • Markets and Financial Environment • Spatial Distribution & Infrastructure • Technological Pathways &Innovation • Land use and resources • Environmental health • Public Perception

7. Linking Qualitative and Quantitative Insights Quantitative Insights Qualitative Insights • Preparation of MARKAL model • Datasets for (bio-) energy resources & technologies • Parameterisation of environmental economic and social constraints • Problem structuring for BIOSYS scenarios • Qualitative storylines derived for each scenario • Defining system elements & construction of problem map. Running MARKAL model • Implications of BIOSYS scenarios • Revisit problem map to extract key trends & utopia and dystopia characteristics • Additional implications arising from chosen pathways and sources • Results of MARKAL modelling runs • Identification of technological pathways • Choice of (bio-) energy sources • Satisfaction of constraints Finalised implications The combination of qualitative and quantitative insights presents risks and opportunities of the BIOSYS scenarios based on stakeholder concerns

8. Implications of the BioSys Scenarios Markets and Financial Environments

9. Summary Implications for the BioSys Scenarios BioSys 3(Environmentally Conscious Energy Autonomy) BioSys 3 (Environmentally Conscious Autonomy) BioSys 2 ( EnergyIndependence) Public subsidies and grants, maximisation of land productivity, Facilitation of innovative technologies and local supply chains Over reliance on grants and subsidies, lack of know – how and infrastructural deficiencies, high financial and technological risks and over-exploitation of natural resources • Effective certification resulting in sustainable domestic and imported bioenergy product. Further, obligation schemes & subsides providing private and public finance to the system and innovative technologies and technically efficient pathways result in real reduction in CO2 emissions. Effective certification processes, Obligation schemes and subsidies providing private and public finance. Innovative technologies and technically efficient pathways resulting in real reduction in CO2 emissions. High cost of certification, high technological risks, high cost of technology for relatively low impact on CO2 emissions • High cost of certification for smaller players, high exposure to technical risk as well as high cost of technology for relatively low impact on CO2 emissions reductions. BioSys 4 (Global Sustainability) BioSys 1(World Markets) BioSys 4 (Global Sustainability) • International collaboration which helps to develop a sustainable international market, facilitate cheaper technological innovation and provides opportunities for developing countries in addition to a strong reduction in CO2 emissions. Development of a sustainable international Market, cheaper technological innovation & opportunities for developing countries Obstacles to International trade, high cost of certification impeding domestic markets, lack of public acceptability of district heating. Competitive bioenergy markets featuring imports, less than significant local land use changes and cost effective technologies at low risks Dominant market players stifling competition, lost technological opportunities, no reduction in CO2 emissions and particulate pollution in urban areas because of the dominance in residential boilers • Obstacles to international trade, high cost of certification impeding the competitiveness of domestic and biomass and lack of public acceptability especially for district heating.

10. Key Implications for Policy makers Markets and Financial Environment: • Policies promoting the integration of the bioenergy industry with other related and established sectors • Policies which facilitate long term subsidies and grants Spatial distribution and Infrastructure: • Policies based on results from spatial mapping studies which identify and support bio-energy chains that are suitable for different UK Locations • Greater involvement of local authorities in developing bio-energy chains. Technological Pathways and Innovation: • Polices that facilitate effective dissemination avenues between the macro, meso and micro levels of society so that cost effective as well as innovative technologies are deployed to avoid stagnation and lost opportunities : Polices that facilitate effective coordination and dissemination avenues between the macro, meso and micro levels of society so that cost effective bioenergy technologies as well as innovative technologies are deployed to avoid stagnation and lost oppportunities

11. Key Implications for Policy makers Land Use and Resources: • Policy makers should base policies on reliable information or mandatory reports which clearly states the displacement effects or the trade–offs between bio energy production and other land uses. Environmental Health: • To maximise the reduction of CO2 emissions, policy makers should ensure that potential CO2 emissions sources in prospective and existing bioenergy chains are identified through comprehensive LCAs and other methodologies. • To safe guard public health, policies should ensure that the scale of production of prospective bio-energy chains and its associate impacts is considered within the local context.

12. Benefits of combining Quantitative and Qualitative Scenario Analysis Combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis provided a means of : • presenting Markal quantitative modelling results based on stakeholder concerns • complementing qualitative information from the problem structuring approach, so that the implications of bioenergy sources, uses and specific technological pathways are better articulated in narratives Integrating quantitative and qualitative methodologies provides a holistic representation of the system which could effectively guide policy makers as they contemplate trade-offs in energy policy decisions

13. Thank you for your attention! www.tsec-biosys.ac.uk