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NEAR THE END OF THORPEX – WHAT’S NEXT?

NEAR THE END OF THORPEX – WHAT’S NEXT?. Acknowledgements: USTEC Members WWOSC Townhall Meeting , 18 Aug 2014, Montreal, Canada. WHAT WE ACCOMPLISHED. Weather community became more organized / energetic Dialogue between academia & operations More attention to use of forecasts

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NEAR THE END OF THORPEX – WHAT’S NEXT?

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  1. NEAR THE END OF THORPEX –WHAT’S NEXT? Acknowledgements: USTEC Members WWOSC TownhallMeeting, 18 Aug 2014, Montreal, Canada

  2. WHAT WE ACCOMPLISHED • Weather community became more organized / energetic • Dialogue between academia & operations • More attention to use of forecasts • R&D & R2O accomplishments • Adaptive observational techniques • Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR) program • Ensemble-based DA / covariance in variational DA • Hybrid GSI • Multi-center ensemble system • North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)

  3. WHERE WE FAILED • Stakeholder Panel never formed • Low funding level, less than expected impact • US coordination sub-optimal • International engagement less productive • R&D misses • Optimal design of observing systems • Evaluation, instead of design of observing systems • DA for moist / finer scale processes • Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS) • Truly international probabilistic forecast effort • SERA research • Lack of funding • Cost – benefit analysis of new observing/DA/ensemble systems

  4. OPPORTUNITIES • Objective assessment of costs/benefits of weather research • Articulate societal need for / potential of weather research • Coordinated national initiative • Broaden coalition - Engage more agencies • R&D needs / gaps • Global nowcastingsystem • Cloud DA w remote observations, non-hydrostatic forecasting • Decision support based on quantified forecast uncertainty • Forecasting expected impact of weather – not only weather

  5. USTEC RECOMMENDATIONS – 07/15/14 • Integrated high impact US weather project endorsed • One Earth, unified science/infrastructure, national level societal needs, concerted effort/funding justification • USTSSC to develop plan incl link w 3 intl legacy projects • Transform & rename USTEC & USTSSC • Current committees facilitate transformation & fill gaps • Agencies & community considerforming a major US weather initiative • Galvanize community around societally understandable /relevant focus • Post-THORPEX integrated weather project at core

  6. BACKGROUND

  7. THORPEX 101 – 2005-2014 • Objective • Accelerate improvements in high impact weather forecasts • History • WMO/WWRP sponsored program launched in 2004 • Approach • Research related to end-to-end forecast process • Coordination across • Components of forecast system • Observing, data assimilation, ensemble forecast, decision support systems • Nations & regions • Research & operational communities • Modernize / optimize forecast system • Allocate research resources to maximize overall economic impact • Adaptive & probabilistic approaches • Observations, covariances, physics, decision procedures

  8. MAJOR US ACCOMPLISHMENTS • $ 20+M THORPEX-related investments by agencies • Field campaigns, AOs, archives, etc Developed, tested, & operationally implemented • Adaptive observations • Winter Storm Reconnaissance (WSR) program • National Weather Service • Ensemble based data assimilation • Hybrid GSI-EnKF- NCEP • Multi-center ensemble forecasting • North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) • NCEP, Canada, Mexico • + FNMOC - National Unified Operational Prediction Capability

  9. THORPEX & WWRP ORGANIZATION • World Weather Research Program (WWRP/CAS/WMO) WGs: • Nowcasting, Mesoscale, Tropical Meteorology, Socioeconomic Research Applications (SERA), Numerical Experimentation (joint with WCRP), Verification • Joint Science Committee – JSC • WWRP projects • Forecast & Research Demonstration Projects (FDPs & RDPs) • Sochi, Vancouver, Beijing, Sidney, etc • THORPEX program – supported by voluntary contributions to Trust Fund • International Core Steering Committee - ICSC • Representatives of sponsoring organizations • Data Assimilation & Observing Systems (DAOS) • Ron Gelaro (former co-chair), Tom Hamill • Predictability & Dynamical Processes (PDP) • IstvanSzunyogh (co-chair), Craig Bishop • Global Interactive Forecast System – THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (GIFS-TIGGE) • ZoltanToth (former co-chair), Yuejian Zhu • Regional Committees • (North) America (Malaquias Pena), Africa , Asia, Europe, Southern Hemisphere • International Program Office – IPO • Coordination

  10. SUGGESTED WWRP ORGANIZATION • Few standingWGs focusing on basic research areas • DAOS, WGNE, Ensemble/Predictability, SERA • Time limited projects – supported by WGs & Trust Funds • Polar Prediction Project (PPP) – launched recently • Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (SSS) – launched recently • Third major project (RRR?) – under discussion • What’s needed given • Societal needs & • Scientific opportunities in next 5-10 yrs?

  11. WHITE PAPER ON POSSIBLE 3RD PROJECTby ad hoc sub-group of ICSC IMPACT FORECASTING (IF) • High impact weather (THORPEX theme) • From minutes to weeks (instead of 1-14 days) • Seamless weather – climate prediction • In context of changing climate • Complement / support PPP & SSS projects • Forecast the IMPACT of weather (not weather only) • Fine scales needed for this • Focus on mesocales(instead of synoptic scales) THORPEX Townhall to provide input to International Planning Workshop Karlsruhe, Germany, 18-19 March, 2013

  12. BACKGROUND

  13. MAJOR INTL. ACCOMPLISHMENTS • Focus on weather forecast research • Science Symposia • Workshops • WG meetings • Training • Enhanced interactions between research & operations • Training of forecasters, etc • Globally engage weather forecast community • Africa health initiatives, etc • TIGGE • Archive of operational global ensemble forecasts • 10 provider, 3 archive centers

  14. US ORGANIZATION • US THORPEX Executive Committee – USTEC • NASA Jared Entin • Navy Melinda Peng • NOAA John Conrtinas • NSF Chungu Lu • US Representative to ICSC ZoltanToth, Chair • US THORPEX Science Steering Committee - USTSSC • Edmund Chang (Chair), Malaquias Pena (Co-chair) • US Program Office • Supported by NASA, NOAA, NSF • Housed at NCAR – Pam Johnson

  15. INTERNATIONAL STATUS / ACTIVITIES • Funding - Lower than expected • International, regional, and national / agency levels • Stakeholder Panel never organized / convened • Organization • Observing System & DA WGs merged • SERA moved up under JSC/WWRP • Some ambiguity as to links between THORPEX & WWRP/JSC • Research • Active WGs • Limited activities under RCs (except Europe?) • Status report prepared for ICSC review • Delayed by 3 yrs • Planning for 2 new WWRP initiatives • Polar & Sub-seasonal forecasting • Partially supported by THORPEX Trust Fund • Limited involvement from THORPEX WGs • Legacy of THORPEX? • Plans to be discussed at ICSC meeting next month

  16. THORPEX LEGACY – OPTIONS THORPEX formally ends Dec 2014 Trust Fund contributions cease • Option A • DAOS WG integrated into WWRP WG structure (under all options) • Option B • 5-10 yr extension; Trust Fund open for contributions; 3 WGs, RCs remain as funds permit • Option C • New 10-yr environmental prediction initiative launched for seamless prediction of high impact weather • In context of changing climate, in collaboration with WCRP • New Trust Fund initiated • Subseasonal/seasonal & polar prediction projects • THORPEX WGs may be sustained • Option D • Like C except no “umbrella” program • Coordination for projects provided by WWRP and its JSC • Like for other WWRP projects

  17. THORPEX LEGACY – USTEC STANCE • THORPEX is big part of WWRP • THORPEX legacy & WWRP’s future tied • Strong environmental prediction research supported • Hrs to seasons – either option C or D may work • Science-based collaboration between WWRP & WCRP needed • Option D may be organizationally clearer • Link with US Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) program • There may be limited US contributions (NSF) • Explore alternative funding sources (e.g., WWRP base, stakeholders) • Clarify role of WGs vs. projects • Standing WGs promote research in basic areas • DAOS, WGNE, Ensemble, SERA • Time limited projects aimed at specific deliverables • Possibly regional focus • Leverage expertise in (re)new(ed) standing WGs • Reorganize other existing WGs into projects? • Sustain research – operations links & TIGGE archive

  18. US STATUS / ACTIVITIES • Continued funding for PO by agencies • Despite cut in NOAA funding • USTSSC reconstituted • Activities resumed – workshop, etc • Science plan completed • Intersection of process, forecast, & application studies • US implementation plan for next 2-3 yrs • How Science Plan maps onto agency initiatives/interests • Form of post-THORPEX weather research?

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