Getting Started with Price Analysis

1. Getting Started with Price Analysis Choosing a product and gathering data

2. Review the assignment guide • Price data you will need • Prices over time for a product Choose frequency (monthly, weekly, daily) Choose location (city, spot market, regional, US) Choose length of time (5 years, …) • Prices over time for a product across different locations Choose three locations • Prices over time for a product at three levels of processing (e.g. raw, processed, retail; farm, wholesale, retail) • Prices for a product across different close substitute forms of the product at a particular location at a particular time (yogurt with…….)

3. Product market background • To describe sources of supply • Current supply • Imports (perhaps by origin) • Beginning inventory (perhaps for form –dry, frozen…) • To describe types of demand (use, utilization) • Current demand (perhaps by type of consumption) • Exports (perhaps by destination) • Ending inventory (perhaps for form –dry, frozen…)

4. Three important data sources • US Dept of Ag USDA • Bureau of labor statistics BLS • Energy Information Administration

5. Energy Information Administration http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=ddr001&f=w

7. Prices …pick what is of interest!

8. Prices Collect/download data……use Excel to create your own graphics, thou you can also look at graphics on the website • http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_top.asp • Pdf

10. Weekly supply data • http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm • Or see pdf WeeklySupply • Note details…..

13. Demand….a.k.a. disposition, utilization, use, consumption….same types of data available! • Sometimes estimated as what can not be accounted for….Supply –inventory ! • http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_snd_d_nus_mbbl_m_cur.htm • Or see pdf

14. Data by State and region

15. BLS also has some energy prices!

16. Ag & food prices USDA ERS Data and briefing rooms BLS

17. BLS

18. Getting to BLS data • Review Assignment Guide • BLS has CPI, PPI, industry, commodity data • What is available depends on product • Some have city specific data, monthly • Some have only regional and US aggregate prices • Gateways (go to databases, single screen http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ http://www.bls.gov/ppi/

21. Pick products and generate data & graphics (tho’ you need to create your own for the assignment!)

22. Bottom line! • Get current data • Get lot’s of data (more the better@!) • Use tools to pick products but then download data to spreadsheet • Document your sources • Bookmark your sources so you can go back to them!

23. USDA and agencies Gateways Data: http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/cpifoodandexpenditures/consumerpriceindex.htm http://www.ers.usda.gov/Browse/view.aspx?subject=FarmEconomy BriefingRooms: click tabs….

24. Key link for data http://www.ers.usda.gov/catalog/CatalogByTopicID.asp?pdt=1&son=TRUE&ptd=&sby=DATE&TID=150&arc=c

26. Most products have extensive data on prices, supply, demand, and key drivers!

27. Examples • U.S. Lettuce Statistics January 10, 2011 • Contains data covering the economics of the U.S. lettuce industry. Time-series data covers State and U.S. area, yield, production, prices, value as well as U.S. trade by country, per capita use, varieties, planting and harvesting dates, and fertilizer use on lettuce. Data series for world area, production, producer prices, and trade are also included. 94008 January 10, 2011 • U.S. Carrot Statistics January 5, 2011 • U.S. and State data on acreage, yield, production, price, and value for fresh and processing carrots. Additional statistics include supply and disappearance, per capita use, price indexes, shipments, arrivals, U.S. exports and imports by country, usual planting and harvesting dates, agricultural chemical use, world production, area, and trade, and more. January 5, 2011 • Wheat Data December 21, 2010 • This data product contains statistics on wheat - including the five classes of wheat: hard red winter, hard red spring, soft red winter, white, and durum - and rye. Includes data published in the monthly Wheat Outlook and previously annual Wheat Yearbook. Data are monthly, quarterly, and/or annual depending upon the data series. December 21, 2010 • Feed Grains Database December 21, 2010 • Interactive database that contains statistics on four feed grains (corn, grain sorghum, barley, and oats), foreign coarse grains (feed grains plus rye, millet, and mixed grains), hay, and related items. Tables previously published annually in the Feed Yearbook are available and updated continuously as data are added to the database. Custom queries also allow users to retrieve historical data. ERS88007B December 21, 2010

28. Cotton and Wool Yearbook Data tables November 22, 2010 • U.S. cotton and wool production, supply, use, trade, and price statistics. Includes domestic and world price series and indexes; State cotton acreage, yield, and production data; and conversions of U.S. textile imports and exports to raw fiber equivalents. 89004 November 22, 2010 • Dry Peas and Lentils November 18, 2010 • These statistical tables include much of the known published data on U.S. dry peas and lentils. Although USDA groups chickpea data with dry edible beans, some chickpea data is also included in this data product for the convenience of those preferring to group them with dry peas and lentils. The data set contains U.S. acreage, production, price, crop value, per capita use, import, and export statistics for a number of years. World acreage, production, imports, and exports are also included. # 02001 November 18, 2010 • Fruit and Tree Nuts Yearbook Data tables November 1, 2010 • Annual data on acreage, production, trade, supply and utilization, prices, and value of production for fruit and nuts including citrus, other tree fruits, grapes and other small fruits; supply and utilization of processed fruit and fruit juices. November 1, 2010

29. U.S. Tomato Statistics July 21, 2010 • U.S. and State tomato data include acreage, yield, production, price, and value broken out by fresh and processing. Covers monthly retail and grower prices and price indexes, U.S. trade volume and value, and agricultural chemical use. Also includes world area, production, producer price, and trade by country. 92010 July 21, 2010 • U.S. Sweet Corn Statistics June 1, 2010 • This data product contains Excel spreadsheets covering the economics of the U.S. fresh and processing sweet corn industry. Time series data covers State and U.S. area, yield, production, prices, value as well as U.S. trade by country, per capita use, and recent cost of production budgets for selected states. Data series for world area, production, and trade are also included. June 1, 2010 • U.S. Asparagus Statistics May 27, 2010 • U.S. and State data on acreage, yield, production, price, crop value, and per capita disappearance (use) for fresh and processing asparagus. Other statistics include U.S. trade by product and country, farm numbers, world area, production, and trade. May 27, 2010 • U.S. Cantaloup Statistics July 29, 2009 • U.S. and State data on acreage, yield, production, price, and value for cantaloup. Additional statistics include supply and disappearance, per capita use, shipments, arrivals, U.S. exports and imports by country, usual planting and harvesting dates, agricultural chemical use, world production, area, and trade, and more. 02002 July 29, 2009 • U.S. Watermelon Industry July 9, 2009 • Includes data on number of farms, U.S. and state acreage, yield, production, prices, and crop value; per capita consumption; U.S. trade; U.S. grades, varieties, planting and harvesting dates; world area, production, and trade; and more. 89029 July 9, 2009 • U.S. Broccoli Statistics June 12, 2009 • Contains data covering the economics of the U.S. fresh and processing broccoli industry. Time series data covers U.S. and State area, yield, production, prices, value as well as U.S. trade by country, per capita use (disappearance), and usual harvesting dates and varieties by State. Also included are data series for world area and production and world trade by country. June 12, 2009 • Organic Prices May 28, 2009 • This data set provides farmgate and wholesale prices for select organic and conventional fruits and vegetables, wholesale prices for organic and conventional poultry (broilers) and eggs, as well as f.o.b. and spot prices for organic grain and feedstuffs. Prices are based on those reported by USDA Agricultural Marketing Service Market News, Organic Food Business News, and USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. May 28, 2009

30. Crops  Rice 

32. Other routes to rice Rice Yearbook Data tables March 30, 2010 U.S. rice production, supply, disappearance, trade, and price data. Includes state acreage, yield, and production data; U.S. and world price series; and program statistics. Contains world supply and use estimates as well. 89001 March 30, 2010 Rice Yearbook: Report, 01.05.2011 [pdf]

34. Click on Yearbook dataset

35. Using USDA ERS data • Comes in spreadsheets • Need to re-organize to allow graphing and analysis

36. 'Appendix table 15--Rough rice: Average price received by farmers by month and marketing year

37. Briefing Rooms • Provide background on markets • Key issues • Historical analysis • Examples Dairy Food CPI and Expenditures Food Marketing System in the U.S. Organic Agriculture Global Food Security Bioenergy

38. Briefing rooms (USDA ERS) http://www.ers.usda.gov/Browse/view.aspx?subject=Crops

39. Questions???