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Workers’ Remittances An Important and Stable Source of Development Finance Dilip Ratha International Conference on Migrant Remittances London October 9 th , 2003. Outline. Rising importance of workers’ remittances Pros and Cons Policy issues.
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Workers’ Remittances An Important and Stable Sourceof Development FinanceDilip RathaInternational Conference on Migrant RemittancesLondonOctober 9th, 2003
Outline Rising importance of workers’ remittances Pros and Cons Policy issues
Remittances have become a key source of global development finance $ billion2002 FDI flows 135 Private debt flows -4 Official finance 35 Workers’ remittances 88
Main providers of remittances Outward workers’ remittance payments To all countries, $ billion United States Saudi Arabia 1987 1992 1972 1977 1982 1997 2002
Main providers of remittances Outward workers’ remittance payments To all countries, $ billion United States Saudi Arabia 1987 1992 1972 1977 1982 1997 2002 Remittances rise with migration and income
Migration will increase in the long-term • Income gap between source and destination countries is wide • Dependency ratios and pension costs are rising in industrial countries • Temporary, and South-South, migration to increase
Pros:Remittances are stable Capital flows to developing countries $ billion
And more evenly distributed:Although top recipients are large countries…. $ billion, 2002
Smaller countries receive more remittances as a share of GDP Remittances as % of GDP, 2002
Cons: Remittances may… • …finance “unproductive” spending
Cons: Remittances may… • …finance “unproductive” spending • …promote idleness among recipients
Cons: Remittances may… • …finance “unproductive” spending • …promote idleness among recipients • …raise inequality in the middle-income range
Cons: Remittances may… • …finance “unproductive” spending • …promote idleness among recipients • …raise inequality in the middle-income range • …lead to currency appreciation and Dutch disease
Policy issues • Recognize that remittances are person-to-person flows
Policy issues • Recognize that remittances are person-to-person flows • Improve data reporting
Policy issues • Recognize that remittances are person-to-person flows • Improve data reporting • Encourage flows through formal sector
Strengthen financial infrastructure • Clearing house arrangement
Strengthen financial infrastructure • Clearing house arrangement • Improve transfers to rural areas – tie up with POSBs
Strengthen financial infrastructure • Clearing house arrangement • Improve transfers to rural areas – tie up with POSBs • Increase transparency and competition
Strengthen financial infrastructure • Clearing house arrangement • Improve transfers to rural areas – tie up with POSBs • Increase transparency and competition • International cooperation may be needed
Improve investment climate in recipient countries Remittances as % of GDP, 1996-2000 High Low Corruption 0.5 1.9 Inequality 0.9 1.5 M2/GDP 1.2 0.9 Trade/GDP 1.2 1.0
Summary • Remittances have become an important – and stable - source of global development finance • Increasing remittances would require strengthening the financial infrastructure and improving the investment climate