The future ain’t what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra

1. Managing for ChangeNot Just PersistenceDr. Bruce Stein Director, Climate Change AdaptationNational Wildlife FederationJune 5, 2013

2. The future ain’t what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra

3. Unfortunately, the Future is Now!

4. “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.” --- Wayne Gretsky

5. What Constitutes Good Adaptation? • Adaptation an emerging field • Still poor understanding of what climate adaptation means • Most guidance still at very high level; little operational advice • Danger of existing work simply re-labeled as adaptation • Strong interest in understanding what truly constitutes climate adaptation and how it can be operationalized

6. Climate-Smart Conservation • NWF-led expert workgroup developing criteria and guidance for “climate-smart” conservation • Follows on successful guidance publication and training on vulnerability assessment • Products will include published guide and training course through FWS National Conservation Training Center

7. Iron Chef Adaptation Edition What’s in Your Basket?

8. The Secret Sauce for Successful Adaptation Intentionality

9. Link Actions to Climate Impacts • Show your work! • Climate lens important even if you continue doing the same thing • Address short-term threats in a longer-term context

10. Managing for ChangeNot Just Persistence Historical Range of Variability Global Average January Temperatures. Source: NOAA 2009 Stationarity is Dead!

11. Anticipating Change Along the Delaware Coast Breached levees and inundated coastal impoundments, Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge Creating new impoundments inland and upland of existing ponds. Delaware Dept of Fish and Wildlife

12. Reconsider Conservation GoalsNot Just Strategies • Goals are the why; strategies the how • Many current goals will no longer be feasible • Need is for “climate-informed conservation goals” • Not just “climate-change goals” • Not just changing strategies to meet current goals

13. Aligning Climate-Informed Goals and Strategies Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 • Traditional goals • Revised strategies* • Traditional goals • Traditional strategies • Revised goals* • Revised strategies* Business as Usual Climate Retrofit Climate-Smart from the Start * Review and revised as needed, based on climate change assessments.

14. Integrate with Existing WorkNot Just Stand-Alone Adaptation Plans

15. Climate-Smart Conservation Cycle

16. Understanding Climate Change Vulnerability • Understanding vulnerability is key to designing effective adaptation • What ‘s vulnerable and why • Components of vulnerability • Sensitivity • Exposure • Adaptive Capacity

17. Using Vulnerability to Inform Management Options Source: Dawson et al. 2011

18. Evaluating Possible ActionsKey Characteristics of Climate Smart Conservation • Actions linked to climate impacts • Forward looking goals • Broader landscape context • Robust in an uncertain future • Agile and informed management • Minimizes carbon footprint • Climate influence on project success • Safeguards people and wildlife • Avoids maladaptation

19. The “New” Success in Conservation? “the capacity for self-renewal” -- Aldo Leopold

20. Summing Up • Act with intentionality • Manage for change, not just persistence • Reconsider goals, not just strategies • Integrate adaptation into existing work