CAWSES Space Weather Theme & IHY, eGY, IPY 2007: Working Together

1. CAWSES Space Weather Theme & IHY, eGY, IPY 2007: Working Together Janet Kozyra, University of Michigan Co-Chair, Space Weather Theme, CAWSES Presented by Jan Sojka, Utah State University Co-Chair, Climatology of the Sun-Earth System Theme, CAWSES IHY North American Planning Meeting Boulder, Colorado, 16-18 Feb 2005

2. Some Background on CAWSES

3. SCOSTEP SCOSTEP’s mission: to implement research programs in solar-terrestrial physics that benefit from international participation and that involve at least two ICSU bodies. SCOSTEP Bureau • President: M. A. Geller • Vice-president: S. T. Wu • Scientific Secretary: J. H. Allen • S. K. Avery (URSI) • W. Baumjohann (IAGA) • R. Fujii (COSPAR) • B. Schmieder (IAU) • F. W. Sluijter (IUPAP) • T. Tsuda (IAMAS) • M. Candidi (SCAR)

4. CAWSES Scientific Steering Group • Chair: Sunanda Basu, BU, USA • Jean-Louis Bougeret, CNRS, France • Joanna Haigh, Imperial College, UK • Yohsuke Kamide, STEL, Japan • Arthur Richmond, NCAR, USA • C.-H. Liu, NCU, Taiwan • Lev Zelenyi, IKI, Russia • D. Pallamraju, Scientific Coordinator • L. Walsh, Program Admin.

5. Four Themes under CAWSES • Solar Influence on Climate • Space Weather: Science and Applications Atmospheric Coupling Processes • Climatology of the Sun-Earth System

6. Theme 2:Space Weather Science & Applications Co-Chairs: Janet Kozyra (USA) and Kazunari Shibata (Japan) Overview Theme2 Panel: Sun-to-Earth System Science Santimay Basu (USA), Walter Gonzalez (Brazil), Anatoly Petrukovich (Russia), Rainer Schwenn (Germany), Wei Feng Si (China) and R. Sridharan (India) WG 2.1 Enhanced Resolution Worldwide GPS TEC Maps: Co-Chairs: Anthea Coster (USA), M. Hernandez Pajares (Spain) Membership: In Process. WG 2.2 CAWSES/IAGA/GEM Worldwide Magnetospheric Observations: Chair: Ian Mann (CANOPUS) Members: Ari Viljanen (IMAGE) , Mark Engebretson (MACCS), Jeff Love (USGS), Mark Moldwin (MEASURE), Eftyhia Zesta (SAMBA), Kiyohumi Yumoto (210 MM) -- continuing to recruit additional magnetometer chains WG 2.3 Solar Observations: Chair: Nat Gopalswamy (USA) Members:

7. Theme 2:Space Weather Science & Applications Working Groups in Planning Stages WG 2.4 Continuous Solar H alpha Observations: Being Populated WG 2.5 Worldwide Space Weather Applications: Being Populated WG 2.6 Models, Simulations and Data Assimilation: Being Populated WG 2.7 Worldwide Coordinated Data Analysis: Being Populated

8. Special Features of CAWSES Space Weather Theme, 2004-2008 Goal: Collaborative analysis of international sun-to-Earth data sets aimed at answering open questions in space weather understanding & prediction Main Strategy: Sun-to-Earth campaigns (pre-planned, real-time based on delta sunspot or retrospective) driven by science questions New Feature: • Progressive development of new global data analysis tools that require international collaboration • worldwide maps of geophysical quantities (ex: ULF wave power, hmF2, nmF2, high-resolution GPS TEC, etc.) • continuous time-series of solar observations (ex: continuous H alpha solar images) • Use of new global data analysis tools in combination with other satellite & ground-based data in campaigns to address science questions in ways that were not possible before. Capacity Building: Data sharing as a powerful capacity building exercise in developing nations. Puts local observations into the global view.

9. Created by a working group, consisting of representatives from observing sites, who decide on: the best parameters to display the needed algorithms to integrate the data from different sites (possibly on the fly) the most useful graphical displays Efficient data access The recruitment of observing sites in critical locations Where possible, use recruitment of sites as a capacity building tool Suggest space weather campaigns or retrospective analysis efforts that utilize the global science analysis tools (& other data) to address cutting edge science questions CAWSES Global Research Tools

10. Value of CAWSES to IHY, eGY, IPY • Progressively develop a set of new international data analysis tools • Valuable asset for space research • Combined with satellite data they give new ways of investigating important science questions • Lasting legacy after IGY celebrations • Collect & preserve comprehensive sets of international sun-to-Earth observations • Valuable for developing assimilative space weather models • Important for testing understanding and predictive capabilities of sun-to-Earth models • Worldwide resource for sun-Earth system science during and after IGY • Build up an international community familiar with campaign tools & collaborative analysis ready to participate in the IGY • Help refine science questions and needs for worldwide campaigns over the next 2 years in preparation for the IGY celebration.

11. Critical Joint Needs with IHY, eGY, IPY: Data Environment Baseline Need: Seamless access sun-to-earth data sets worldwide (including developing nations) -- through Virtual Observatories? Wish List: • High level, analyzed and intepretted data by instrument teams • On-the-fly generation of integrated data products (world-maps, continuous time series) constructed by networks of worldwide observatories • Summary data on a common time or spatial axis at vantage points throughout the geospace system • Mapping between regions • Tracking of science questions that develop • Smart data searches (looking for similar features, similar events, statistics in Virtual Observatories) • Model simulations as data sets • viewed along satellite trajectories • mapped to ground-based sites • Plotted with observations in common format • post-processed quantities (i.e., Poynting flux, B field energy, etc.) • Support for assimilative models • Secure proprietary data sharing for space weather user community

12. Update on Data Sets and new CAWSES Global Analysis Tools for the First CAWSES Campaign

13. 1st CAWSES Campaign Purpose to investigate: • Space Weather Sun-to-Earth (27 March - 6 April 2004) • Collect a sun-to-Earth data set which dips down into the lower atmosphere during high-speed solar wind streams • Provide first testbed for CAWSES worldwide maps - new international research tools. • Equinox State of the Middle Atmosphere & Coupling between Atmospheric Regions (March - April 2004) • By collecting worldwide information on the equinox middle atmosphere. • By serving as test bed (where possible) for global integrated maps of middle atmosphere parameters - (i.e., gravity waves, temperature, winds, etc).

14. 1st CAWSES Campaign Collaboration with: • ISR World Days, MI-coupling campaign, 29 March - 3 April 2004 • Focus: Coupling between the high- and low-latitude ionospheres • Coordinated observations by incoherent scatter radars worldwide • Sonderstrom, EISCAT, Svalbard, Millstone Hill, Arecibo, Jicamarca, Irkutsk (Russia), and Kharkov (Ukraine) • Led by: Chao-Song Huang (MIT/Haystack) • CPEA (Coupling Processes in the Equatorial Atmosphere) March - April 2004 • Focus: Coupling troposphere up through thermosphere in a strong convective region over Indonesia • Led by: Prof. Shoichiro Fukao, Dr. Mamoru Yamamoto (Kyoto Univ)

15. Campaign Data Sets > 40 participating space & ground-based observing programs • Satellite Data • Solar: SOHO, RHESSI • Solar Wind: ACE, SMEI • Magnetosphere: Cluster, Double Star, Polar, GOES, NOAA/POES, Iridium, LANL GEO, IMAGE • Radiation Belt: SAMPEX, GOES particles, HEO, LANL SOPA, GPS • Ionosphere: DMSP, FAST, ROCSAT, TIMED • Thermosphere/Mesosphere/Stratosphere: TIMED, UARS, CHAMP • Solar Ground-Based & Satellite Observations • Catalog hosted at the CDAW website (http://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov) • Data Sources: IPS, ISOON, H-alpha, TRACE, SOHO, Metric Radio, Microwave,etc.

16. Campaign Data Sets • Ground-Based Data • Fabry Perot Interferometers • Northern Scandinavia at Kiruna, Sweden; Sodankyla, Finland and Longyearbyen, Svalbard • Emissions • OI (557.7 nm), OI (630.0 nm) at Bear lake Observatory, UT • OI (630 nm) High Resolution Imaging Echelle Spectrograph at Boston • Optical photometer - Trivandrum • Ionosondes & Digisondes • International digisonde users group in Center for Atmospheric Research, Lowell's DIDBase • Australian Ionosonde Network -- 5 min cadence • 3 digital ionosondes in Brazil • Vertical ionospheric sounding in Rome • Oblique ionospheric sounding between Rome and London • Ionospheric Irregularities • Scintillations derived from chain of GPS receivers located in the American 70o longitude sector and SCINDA global network of AFRL • VHF spaced-receiver and GPS instruments (Tirunelveli, India)

17. Campaign Data Sets • Radars • Incoherent Scatter Radars • Sonderstrom, EISCAT, Svalbard, Millstone Hill, Arecibo, Jicamarca, Irkutsk (Russia), and Kharkov (Ukraine) • SuperDARN • Magnetometer Data • Global ULF wave maps (power, wave index, magnetospheric density) • Initial set of magnetometer arrays: IMAGE, MACCS, CANOPUS, USGS, MEASURE, SAMBA, 210 MM • Progressively extend to include other arrays, other magnetometer data products • ULF wave measurements in Bulgaria, Italy and Antartica • Digital magnetometer, Kodaikanal, India • SEGMA array in Italy • Kharkiv V. Karazin National University magnetometer • Trivandrum magnetometer • TEC • IGS Rinex data, World & European maps • JPL Maps • Chain of GPS receivers located in the American 70o long sector

18. Campaign Data Sets • Mesosphere Observations • MF radar: Neutral winds 80-98 km, • equatorial station at Tirunelveli, India • Kharkiv V. Karazin National University • Network of 35 MF radars spanning high to low latitude (Scott Palo) • MST radar at Gadanki, India • E-region drifts at 85-105 km at Collm (52N, 15E). • All-sky, multi-wavelength gravity wave imager, located at Bear Lake Observatory,UT • Medium field (75 deg) Mesospheric Temperature Mapper  located at Maui, Hawaii (20.8 N, 156 W) • Raleigh Lidar in Gadanki, India • Lower atmosphere radar in Gadanki, India • GPS receiver in Gadanki, India • All Sky Imagers • 3 in Brazil • Equatorial Electrojet • Tirunelveli, India • HF Doppler Radar • Kodaikanal, India, Kharkiv V. Karazin National University, & Trivandrum

19. Campaign Data Sets • Simulation Outputs as Data Sets • GAIM - Assimilative model of the Ionosphere - Jan Sojka • CSEM MHD Simulation - ULF waves - John Freeman • TIEGCM - Geoff Crowley

20. CAWSES World Maps - New International Research Tools First Results: • CAWSES Hi-Res GPS TEC World Maps [Leads: Anthea Coster (USA) & M. Hernandez Pajares (Spain) • CAWSES/GAIM Assimilative Worldwide Maps of the Ionosphere [Lead: Jan Sojka, Utah State University] • CAWSES/IAGA/GEM Worldwide ULF Wave Parameters [Leads: Ian Mann, Paul Loto’aniu, University of Alberta, CA]

21. CAWSES Hi-Res Worldwide TEC Some Issues: • Possible additional sources of real-time GPS (I.e., IGS, Suomi-Net, Canadian real-time differential network • Other sources of complementary data • Critical need for observations over Africa • Programs to provide GPS receivers & PC’s in data gaps. • Collaborations involving Australian data TEC Movie Courtesy: Anthea Coster

22. Global View of the Ionosphere Through Assimilative Modeling

23. Global View of the Ionosphere Through Assimilative Modeling 02 April 2004 (day 093) 03 April 2004 (day 094) USA GAIM (assimilates > 160 GPS Receivers) Space weather variations Forecast (IFM) Relatively constant prediction

24. CAWSES/GAIM Assimilative Ionosphere Model. Fills in sparse data coverage with physical model • GAIM uses TEC data to reconstruct the ionosphere from 90 to >2000 km globally • Striking changes in the ionosphere over Jicamarca not predicted in ionosphere forecast model (IFM). High speed stream activity Storm2 Quiet Storm1

25. CAWSES/IAGA/GEM World Magnetometer Maps Chair: Ian Mann, Canada (CANOPUS) Members: Ari Viljanen (IMAGE), Mark Engebretson (MACCS), Jeff Love (USGS), Mark Moldwin (MEASURE), Eftyhia Zesta (SAMBA), Kiyohumi Yumoto (210 MM ). First data product: ULF wave power distribution maps Plans: Extend to include other arrays and stations Extend to create other magnetometer data products based on the time-series data. new ULF wave indices ULF magnetospheric density maps Data Host: Space Sciences Data Portal (SSDP), University of Alberta (PI:Robert Rankin)

26. CAWSES/IAGA/GEM Worldwide ULF Wave Parameters 1st CAWSES Campaign 29-31 October 2003 Superstorms Courtesy: T. M. Loto'aniu, I. Mann, and D. Milling (Physics Department, University of Alberta)

27. CAWSES/IAGA/GEM Worldwide ULF Wave Parameters Sharp drop in Dst appears as wave signal below. Compare unfiltered & filtered plots to aid in interpretation. Same data as top plot but high-pass filtered with 2 mHz cut-off • To the FFT, Dst looks like a very low frequency (< 1 mHz) wave cycle. • Spectral leakage into higher frequency components. Unusually large Dst means unusually large leakage. • Sharp drop in Dst interpretted as high frequency components in PSD Challenges in Interpretting Maps:

28. CAWSES/IAGA/GEM Worldwide ULF Wave Parameters Web Interface Courtesy: T. M. Loto'aniu, I. Mann, and D. Milling (Physics Department, University of Alberta)

29. Future Plans – to come! • Two virtual worldwide poster sessions in planning for the analysis of the 1st CAWSES campaign • Data exchange • Science issues raised by the data • 30 day campaign in September 2005 • All 8 worldwide ISR radars will operate on best effort basis • Investigate global ionospheric variability • Special focus on modeling of this variability • Extend observations sun-to-Earth to look at solar drivers and geospace responses • Collaborate, if possible, with CPEA again

30. Summary: Suggestions for CAWSES and I*Y 2007 Collaborations • Joint development of data environment & worldwide campaign analysis tools • Collaborative effort to collect and archive comprehensive sun-to-Earth data sets during IHY. • NSF contribution: Request to run all ISR radars opportunistically during magnetic activity throughout 2007 • International Space Agency contributions: Request to make available relevant satellite data during as many magnetically active periods as possible in 2007 • CAWSES, ICESTAR, CEDAR and other programs: Recruit & coordinate worldwide ground-based contributions • CAWSES: Make available the set of new global ground-based analysis tools during magnetically active periods • IHY/CAWSES: Recruit large-scale model outputs & assimilative models as part of the archived data sets

31. Summary: Suggestions for CAWSES and I*Y 2007 Collaborations • Comprehensive sun-to-Earth data sets would be an important worldwide resource and lasting legacy, freely available during and after the IHY for research efforts aimed at: • Focused science question within the global context • Sun-to-earth system science research issues • Design of new space missions • Identifying important gaps in ground-based arrays • Testing of design concepts for ground-based instrument arrays • Assimilative space weather modeling efforts • Verification of sun-to-Earth and large-scale space weather models • Testing of predictive capabilities of space weather models

32. Extra Slides

33. Extra Slides

34. Theme 1:Solar Influence on Climate Co-Chairs: Michael Lockwood (UK) and Lesley Gray (UK) WG 1.1: Assessment of Evidence for Solar Influence on Climate: Juerg Beer (Switzerland), Lon Hood (USA), Judith Lean (USA), Augusto Mangini (Germany), Roddam Narasimha (India), Gerry North (USA), Ilya Usoskin (Finland), Warren White (USA). WG 1.2: Investigation of Mechanisms for Solar Influence on Climate: Ulrich Cubasch (Germany), R. Garcia (USA), Kuni Kodera (Japan), Jon Kristjansson (Norway), R. Bradley (USA).

35. Theme 3:Atmospheric Coupling Processes Co-Chairs: Franz-Josef Luebken (Germany) and Joan Alexander (USA) WG 3.1: Dynamical Coupling and its Role in the Energy and Momentum Budget of the Middle Atmosphere Martin Mlynczak (USA), William Ward (Canada), David Fritts (USA), Nikolai Gavrilov (Russia), S. Gurubaran (India), Maura Hagan (USA), Alan Manson (Canada), Dora Pancheva (UK), Kauro Sato (Japan), Kazuo Shiokawa (Japan), Hisao Takahashi (Brazil), Robert Vincent (Australia) and Yi Fan (China) WG 3.2: Coupling via Photochemical Effects on Particles and Minor Constituents in the Upper Atmosphere Martin Dameris (Germany), Charles Jackman (USA), Ulf Hoppe (Norway), Manuel Lopez-Puertas (Spain), Daniel Marsh (USA), James Russell (USA), and David Siskind (USA) WG 3.3: Coupling by Electrodynamics including Ionospheric Magnetospheric Processes Gang Lu (USA), M. Yamamoto (Japan), Steve Cummer (USA), Peter L. Dyson (Australia), Inez S. Batista (Brazil), Archana Bhattacharya (India), Martin Fullekrug (Germany), and Roland Tsunoda (USA) WG 3.4: Long-Term Trends in Coupling Processes (inter-connected with 4.4)

36. Theme 4:Space Climatology Co-Chairs: Claus Froehlich (Switzerland) and Jan Sojka (USA) WG 4.1: Solar Irradiance Variability Judit Pap (USA) and Gerard Thuillier (France) WG 4.2: Heliosphere Near Earth Leif Svalgaard (USA) WG 4.3: Radiation Belt Climatology Takahiro Obara (Japan) WG 4.4: Long-Term trends in Ionospheric and Upper-Atmospheric Variability (inter-connected with 3.4) M. Jarvis (UK) and John Emmert (USA) Rashid Akmaev (USA), Gufran Beig (India), Gary Burns (Australia), Jorge Chau (Peru), Alexi Danilov (Russia), Rick Niciejewski (USA), Henry Rishbeth (UK), T. Ulich (Finland) and J. Lastovicka (Czech)