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You want us to estimate that?

You want us to estimate that?. 2012 Texas State Data Center Conference for Data Users May 22, 2012 Austin, TX. Local Area Estimates: Sizing and Serving Texas Urban Gaps. 2012 Texas State Data Center Conference for Data Users Alelhie Valencia May 22, 2012 Austin, TX.

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You want us to estimate that?

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  1. You want us to estimate that? 2012 Texas State Data Center Conference for Data Users May 22, 2012 Austin, TX

  2. Local Area Estimates: Sizing and Serving Texas Urban Gaps 2012 Texas State Data Center Conference for Data Users Alelhie Valencia May 22, 2012 Austin, TX

  3. Identifying Urban Gaps Client: Texas Department of Transportation In collaboration with the Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University Objective: to quantify the size and composition of transit “urban gaps” present in urbanized areas (UZAs) in 2000 and projected for 2010

  4. Identifying Urban Gaps • The population of an urbanized area (UZA) is a key factor in determining federal and state funding • Planning for future transportation funding occurs prior to release of decennial census data • Objectives include examining existing urban gaps and potential changes in urban gaps following the 2010 Census

  5. Identifying Urban Gaps • Transit service area boundaries do not always match UZA boundaries. • Compared maps for 2000, 2010 UZAs with transit service area boundaries for each of the UZAs in Texas1 • Portions of the UZAs outside of the transit service area boundaries identified “urban gaps” in service (1) 2000 UZA maps derived from 2008 TIGER/Line® Files. 2010 UZA maps were established in TxDOT Research Report 0-6199-1 Estimated Impact of the 2010 Census on the Texas Transit Funding Formula

  6. Identifying Urban Gaps Urban gaps were identified in the following urbanized areas: • Amarillo • Austin • Beaumont • College Station – Bryan • Corpus Christi • Dallas – Fort Worth – Arlington • Denton – Lewisville • El Paso • Galveston • Houston • Killeen • Longview • Lubbock • Midland • Odessa • Port Arthur • San Antonio • Temple • Texarkana • Tyler • Victoria • Waco • Wichita Falls

  7. Characteristics of People in Urban Gaps • Developed Transit Needs Index : • Households without automobiles • Percentage of seniors • Percentage of persons with disabilities • Household income • Indicators estimated using 2000 Census Summary File 3 aggregate tables at the block group level.

  8. Characteristics of People in Urban Gaps • SF-3 Table P30: Means of Transportation to work • SF-3 Table P11: Household type, including living alone, by relationship for the population 65 years plus • SF-3 Table P42: Sex by age by disability status by employment status for civilian non-institutionalized population 5 years plus • SF-3 Table P88: ratio of income in 1999 to poverty level < 1.5 • Households without vehicles • Percent seniors • Percent persons with disabilities • Household income

  9. Characteristics of People in Urban Gaps • Block groups containing urban gaps were visually inspected using aerial photography to determine estimated proportion of total block group population contained within the gaps. • Estimates were made using a 20% category scale, with possible estimates equal to 0%, 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%, and 100%. • These rates were applied to total block group populations for 2000 and 2010 to obtain the estimated urban gap population.

  10. Characteristics of People in Urban Gaps • Transit needs indicator rates were derived from 2000 Census population and SF-3 aggregate tables. • These rates were applied to estimated urban gap population at block group level.

  11. Projected Population in Urban Gaps *Texas State Data Center Projections, 2000-2007 Migration Scenario

  12. Lesson Learned • Aerial photography useful in estimating geographic distribution of population • Visual inspection of urban gap population geographic distribution time consuming

  13. Future Research • ACS 5-Year Estimates could prove useful in estimating transit needs indicators for small areas, such as urban gaps

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