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Social change in rural Victoria

Social change in rural Victoria. Roger Wilkinson Department of Primary Industries Bendigo, Victoria. Myths about Victorian agriculture. The average age of farmers is getting too old Young people aren’t interested in farming or agriculture We need to keep young people in rural areas

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Social change in rural Victoria

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  1. Social change in rural Victoria Roger Wilkinson Department of Primary Industries Bendigo, Victoria

  2. Myths about Victorian agriculture • The average age of farmers is getting too old • Young people aren’t interested in farming or agriculture • We need to keep young people in rural areas • Farm land is too expensive • We need to stop good agricultural land being used to grow houses • Urban people are ignorant about agriculture and we need to educate them

  3. % change in real household incomeAustralia: 1994-2008

  4. Australian Farm Terms of Trade

  5. Total factor productivity – by industry 1977-78 1983-84 1994-95 2006-07 2000-01 1989-90

  6. Fewer, older Victorian farmers

  7. Percentage of Victorians leaving farming who were replaced

  8. Farm scale trends, Victoria

  9. Even older, no fewer

  10. Population change and projections: Comparing Alpine and Buloke 1976

  11. Population change and projections: Comparing Alpine and Buloke 2001

  12. Population change and projections: Comparing Alpine and Buloke 2026

  13. Ratio of land value per hectare to production value per hectare, 1997

  14. Amenity influence on agriculture

  15. Mildura Robinvale Wodonga Bendigo Ballarat MELBOURNE Bairnsdale Geelong Traralgon Warrnambool Population growth 2001-2006

  16. Change in relative proportion of 20-25 year olds

  17. Area generating 80% of farm profit 1997

  18. Those “myths” again • The average age of farmers is getting too old • Young people aren’t interested in farming or agriculture • We need to keep young people in rural areas • Farm land is too expensive • We need to stop good agricultural land being used to grow houses • Urban people are ignorant about agriculture and we need to educate them

  19. Re-framing the “myths” • It takes fewer young farmers to replace an old farmer • Young people know there are fewer opportunities in agriculture than there were for their parents • We need to let young people leave rural areas, and try to entice a few back later in life • Farm land is expensive in high amenity areas but not in low amenity areas • The issue is good agricultural water, not land • Urban people know more about agriculture than we think, and educating them may turn them against us

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