“Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from energy supply in South Africa”

1. “Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from energy supply in South Africa” Mark Howells Energy Research Institute

2. Introduction • The ERI – aims and direction • GHG Inventories – the starting point • Baselines – what the players see • Integrated Energy Modelling – the big pic. • Mitigation – how to reduce the emissions • Industrial projects – Major players in SA • Towards CDM in SA

3. The Energy Research Institute~ Aims and Direction ~ • Education • Capacity building • Promote policy discussion – NOT write it • Useful research, • Government • Industry

4. The Energy Research Institute ~ GHG work ~ The Energy Research Institute ~ GHG work ~ • Inventories • Baselines • Mitigation • Country studies, UNFCC, IPCC, MSc’s & PhD’s • IEP • Case studies • Information • and CDM applications

5. Greenhouse Gas Inventories • Snapshot • Complete energy sector • ’83-’93 Inventory and 1990 & 94 for UNFCCC • Problems: • Consumption data • IPCC data • NEEDS Urgent attention $20 Billion dollars.

6. Integrated Energy Modelling~ The big picture ~ • Energy use & GHG • Need the big picture • National economy for 1995-2025 • No IEP = problems! • LEAP 2000:China etc. • MARKAL: IEA • ERI is using both … • What to do, how, where & when …

7. Baselines for the Energy Sector: BUSINESS AS USUAL • Modelled for 1995-2020 • Stakeholder input • Business as usual • CDM funds • Mitigation options • Need Integrated Energy Planning tools

8. Mitigating GHG emissions from the energy supply sector… • Electricity • Liquid Fuels • Coal • Reducing demand

9. Mitigation Options~ Electricity ~ • Clean Coal • Renewables: • Wind and Solar • Imported hydro • Gas • Nuclear • PBMR • Conventional

10. South African Power Generation • SA will require new generation capacity by about 2008 (assuming present modest increase in demand) • SA now generates the world’s cheapest electricity • The SA economy is energy intensive and depends on cheap energy (e.g. aluminium smelting)

11. South Africa Electricity Capacity • Operating Capacity, MWe (1999): • Total: 43,142 (100%) • Coal: 38,287 (88.7%) • Nuclear: 1840 (4.3%) • Storage: 1580 (3.7%) • Hydro: 668 (1.5%) • Gas: 662 (1.5%) • Bagasse: 105 (0.2%)

12. Coal Generation • Advantages: • Reliable, with proven technology • Large reserves of coal in the world • Competive in price • Employment • Disadvantages: • Carbon dioxide emissions • Coal is expensive to transport • Quite high capital costs • High loss of life from mining accidents

13. Future of Coal Generation • Supercritical: already happening • IGCC: likely but limited • Fluidised Bed: limited • Combined Heat and Power (CHP): uncertain under deregulation • Currently most economic plan

14. Generation from Gas • Advantages • High thermal efficiency (CCGT) • Low capital costs • Quick construction time • Fairly clean • Disadvantages • Uncertainty about gas prices in future • Gas has other uses (e.g. production of liquid fuels) • Greenhouse emissions • Loss of currency

15. Future of Gas Generation • Seems likely to increase relative to other energy sources but there is much uncertainty over future gas prices

16. SA Future Generation: Gas • Gasfields in SA & neighbours are small • Mossgas: 17 bcm (663 PJ) • CBM, Waterberg: 90 bcm (3393 PJ) • Kudu, Namibia: 85-250 bcm (3315-9750 PJ) • Pande, Mozambique: 40-80 bcm (1560-3120 PJ) • (SA’s total energy demand in 1995: 4426 PJ) • Piping gas from Kudu to Cape Town would be expensive • Gas from Congo? • Better things to do with gas (feedstock for chemical & liquid fuel production, heating, steelworks etc) • Limited potential for large scale electricity generation

17. Nuclear Power Generation • Advantages • Reliable: safety record in the West • no greenhouse emissions in operation • Fuel can be cheaply transported (very small in mass) • Competive total costs • Disadvantages • High capital costs • Bad public perceptions (irrational fears about safety, radiation, weapons and waste) • Therefore political problems

18. Future of Nuclear Generation • Move to simpler designs with passive safety, offering lower capital costs, quicker construction and easier licensing. • Perhaps move to smaller units, offering more speed and flexibility in planning capacity. • Final waste disposal sites must be approved • In the long term: breeder reactors, thorium fuel

19. Hydroelectricity • Advantages • Reliable, with proven technology • Economically competitive • Quite clean • Disadvantages • Dams are expensive, with long construction times • Environmental problems (silting, slaination, upsetting natural flows, displacing people, methane from rotting vegetation) • Difficult to find and approve new sites

20. Future of Hydroelectricity • It will be increasingly difficult to find and approve new sites in most of the world • But there is enormous potential in central Africa

21. Imported Hydroelectricity • Additional Hydro Potential in Central Africa • Zambezi: 6000 MWe • Inga Falls (Congo): 50,000 – 100,000 MWe • Other: 1200 Mwe • Inga could be run of river (no dam) • Huge potential but political problems and questions of security of supply

22. Wind and Solar Power • Advantages • Clean • No greenhouse emissions • Free energy • Disadvantages • Expensive electricity • Dilute, intermittent, unpredictable energy • Large land area required • Only certain sites are suitable • Environmental problems for wind (eyesore, kills birds)

23. Future Wind & Solar Generation • Unlikely to provide more than a small fraction of total electricity • Growth of wind & solar generation will depend on government policy and subsidies

24. SA Future Generation: Wind • Suitable wind conditions near the coast • Eskom and perhaps Darling Wind Farm will be installing wind turbines • High cost • Large land use • Intermittent supply • Good for supply to small, remote communities • But unlikely to supply more than a small fraction of SA’s electricity demand

25. SA Future Generation: Solar • Very good solar conditions in Northern Cape (6 kWh / m2/ 24 hours) • Could be solar thermal or photovoltaic • High costs • Intermittent energy, requiring storage • Large land usage • Good for supply to small, remote communities • But unlikely to supply more than a small fraction of SA’s electricity demand

26. SA Energy Reserves (without Breeder Reactors)(excluding renewable energy)

27. SA Reserves (with breeder reactors)(excluding renewable energy)

28. Mitigation options: Oil • Import finished product • Shift coal-oil to gas-oil • Improve storage of crude

29. Mitigation options: Coal • More efficient mining • Combustion of methane • Extraction of methane • Prevention of spontaneous combustion

30. Mitigation options: Reducing energy demand • Energy Efficiency in industry • Can create infrastructure • Best short term option • Industry understands market mechanisms

31. Current Industrial Projects • Applications for CDM • Link between GHG’s and energy management • Extension of energy efficiency work

32. Towards an ‘enabling environment’w.r.t. energy management • Case studies • Industry buy-in • Linkages with national energy efficiency programs • Assessment of industrial potential • Industrial Energy Efficiency Association

33. In conclusion:Some warnings • CDM may be used to subsidise Annex 1 economies • Trade implications • SA could be left behind with respect to CDM funds • Much current data is very questionable • Fuel costs, such as gas prices must be viewed with caution.