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Visa applications, enrolments and policy change: what past trends can tell us about the future

Dr. Stephanie Harris examines UK student enrolment data, visa applications, and international student recruitment trends to forecast future policy changes. Explore past trends to anticipate the impact on recruitment in 2021.

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Visa applications, enrolments and policy change: what past trends can tell us about the future

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  1. Visa applications, enrolments and policy change: what past trends can tell us about the future Dr Stephanie Harris Policy Manager, Immigration Stephanie.harris@universitiesuk.ac.uk • @UUKIntl

  2. Contents • UK STUDENT ENROLMENT DATA • UK VISA APPLICATION DATA • INTERNATIONAL STUDENT RECRUITMENT TO THE UK IN 2021

  3. Total International student Numbers • Source: HESA student record

  4. TOTAL INTERNATIONAL STUDENTS NUMBER BY TYPE Source: HESA student record

  5. EU/non-eu STUDENTS NUMBER BY TYPE Source: HESA student record

  6. EU/NON-FIRST YEAR ENROLMENTS BY TYPE Source: HESA student record

  7. EU/NON-FIRST YEAR ENROLMENTS Source: HESA student record

  8. And..? • (Majority) enrolled in September 2017 • Applied in 2016/17 • Decision making 2015/16

  9. Visa DATA • In the year ending September 2018, the number of sponsored Student visa applications (main applicants) rose 8% to 228,725. This was driven by increases in applications for the Higher education (university) sector, which increased by 9% to 194,152, and is the highest level on record. The Higher Education sector accounted for 85% of all sponsored visa applications. Of these, applications from: • Russell Group universities increased by 11% to 96,652 • other universities increased by 8% to 97,500 • Sponsored visa applications by sector year ending December 2010 to September 2018 Source: Home Office

  10. Visa applications vs non-eu enrolments Source: Home Office and HESA student record

  11. Tier 4 policy change 2018 - Addition of China to Appendix H 2012 Closure of Tier 1 PSW

  12. Visa applications from China and India Tier 4 introduced China added to appendix H Credibility interviews introduced Closure of Tier 1 PSW Source: Home Office

  13. Moving towards inclusive growth? Source: Home Office

  14. International student recruitment to the uk in 2021? • What we do know about the likely policy conditions in 2021? • What can the past tell us about how this might effect recruitment?

  15. International student recruitment to the uk in 2021? • What we do know about the likely policy conditions in 2021? • Government White Paper on Immigration was published before Christmas: • Sets out a single immigration system for all • EU students will require a study visa • Modest changes to post-study leave to remain.

  16. International student recruitment to the uk in 2021? • What can the past tell us about how this might effect recruitment? Source: HESA student record

  17. Questions? Dr Stephanie Harris Policy Manager, Immigration Stephanie.harris@universitiesuk.ac.uk • @UUKIntl

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