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MESOSCALE MODELING FOR AIR QUALITY FORECASTING by ROBERT D. BORNSTEIN DEPT. OF METEOROLOGY

MESOSCALE MODELING FOR AIR QUALITY FORECASTING by ROBERT D. BORNSTEIN DEPT. OF METEOROLOGY SAN JOSE STATE UNIVERSITY SAN JOSE, CA USA pblmodel@hotmail.com Prepared for FORUM ON: CHALLENGES IN URBAN METEOROLOGY ROCKVILLE, MD 21-23 SEPT 2004. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS CO WORKERS

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MESOSCALE MODELING FOR AIR QUALITY FORECASTING by ROBERT D. BORNSTEIN DEPT. OF METEOROLOGY

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  1. MESOSCALE MODELING FOR AIR QUALITY FORECASTING by ROBERT D. BORNSTEIN DEPT. OF METEOROLOGY SAN JOSE STATE UNIVERSITY SAN JOSE, CA USA pblmodel@hotmail.com Prepared for FORUM ON: CHALLENGES IN URBAN METEOROLOGY ROCKVILLE, MD 21-23 SEPT 2004

  2. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS • CO WORKERS • H. Taha, ALTOSTRATUS, SJSU • R. Balmori, SJSU • J. Ching and S. Dupont, EPS/RTP • S. Burian, Univ of Utah • S. Stetson, SWS, Inc. • D. Byan, Univ of Houston • J. Allwine, DHS • M. Reynolds, BNL • FUNDING AGENCIES • DHS, USAID, State of Texas, LBNL, NSF

  3. OUTLINE • ISSUES IN • URBAN CLIMATE • URBAN WEATHER • URBAN AIR QUALITY • GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS • REQUIRED RESEARCH • FIELD STUDIES • THEORETICAL DEVELOPMENT • MODEL DEVELOPMENT

  4. Scales in an Urban Environment

  5. OBSERVATIONAL NEEDS: URBAN CLIMATE • URBAN PBL • ROUGHNESS DECELERATION VS UHI ACCELERATION • UHI CONFLUENCE VS BARRIER DIFLUENCE • RA FLUX DIV FROM AEROSOLS • ROUGHNESS SUB-LAYER • U* AS f (z) • PROFILERS FROM: SODARS, LIDARS, RADARS, RASS • URBAN CANYON LAYER • LINKAGE B/T ROOFTOP AND CANYON FLOWS • STACKED ASYMMETRIC VORTICIES • WALL INDUCED VERTICAL VELOCITIES • URBAN SURFACE RS/GIS DATA BASES FOR • LU/LC • SOIL MOSITURE: UHI VS UCI • ALBEDO, ROUGHNESS, EMISSIVITY • 3-D UHI ON ALL SFCS

  6. Incorporate Stetson’s high- resolution Houston zo data

  7. URBAN MESO-MODELING • URBANIZED MESO-MET MODELS • AEROSOLS AND RFD • PBL EQUATIONS WITH DRAG TERMS • SFC ENERGY AND MOISTURE BALANCES • MM5  WRF • ROUGHNESS SUBLAYER MODELS • REPLACE MONIN-OBUKHOV THEORY • LOWER B.C. FLUXES FROM CANYON MODELS • SST (x, y, t) from ocean models

  8.  From Masson (2000)

  9. 1 km uMM5 end of daytime ΔUHI: 8 PM 21 Aug • Upper L: MM5 • Upper R: uMM5 • Lower L: uMM5-MM5 • uMM5 1.5 K warmer • Blob is LU/LC error

  10. URBAN EFFECTS ON WEATHER • SEA BREEZE FLOWS • RETARDED MOVEMENT • SYNOPTIC FRONTS • RETARDED MOVEMENT • THUNDERSTORMS • UHI INITIATION VS. BARRIER SPLITTING • PREVIOUS: METROMEX, NYC, AND ATLANTA • AEROSOL MODIFICATIONS • PROJECT HEAT STUDY • OBS AND MESO-MODELS REQUIRED

  11. MM5 section of potential T and w through strongest UHI-induced updraft at 1700 UTC. Max w is 4.3 m/s.

  12. URBAN-SCALE AIR QUALITY • OZONE AIR QUALITY • EMISSIONS • URBAN EFFECTS ON DISPERSION • MEOS-SCALE NETWORKS • PM2.5 • SUMMER PHOTOCHEMISTRY • WINTER COMBUSTION • DURING ALL WEATHER CONDITIONS IN ALL CLIMATE TYPES • OBS • MESO-MODELS

  13. URBAN-CANYON MODELING • CANYON SCALE NUMERICAL MODELS • FOR ER APPLICATIONS • BOTH CFD AND REAL-TIME • WIND TUNNEL MODELS PROVIDE • COMPARISON DATA • PARAMETERIZATION GUIDANCE • 2-WAY LINKED MESO & CANYON SCALE MODELS • FOR ER APPLICATIONS • NEED TRANSPORT AND DIFFUSION PROCESSES • 2-WAY LINKED INDOOR & OUTDOOR MODELS • ER APPLICATIONS • TRUE DOSAGE CALCULATIONS

  14. This and next three are from A. HUBER, EPA/RTP

  15. from EPA/RTP WIND TUNNEL

  16. ER AIR-QUALITY • ER PLANNING FOR • ACCIDENTAL RELEASES • TERRORIST RELEASES • ER PLANNING: NEEDS • TRACER STUDIES (URBAN 2000, JOINT URBAN, DHS/UDS/ NYC) • SECURE DATA-COMMUNICATIONS • MULTISCALE MODELS (SYNOPTIC, MESO, CANYON, INDOOR) • UNDERSTANDABLE DATA DISPLAY FOR RESPONERS • DURING ALL WEATHER CONDITIONS IN ALL CLIMATES

  17. QUIC Simulation with dd = 215 deg (from M. Brown, LANL) wind vectors at 5 m height

  18. from LBNL

  19. URBAN IMPACTS FROM GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE • URBAN POLLUTANT EMISSIONS • SOURCES FOR GLOBAL CONTAMINATION • CLIMATE CHANGE INDUCED TRENDS • INCREASED URBAN THERMAL-STRESS MORTALITY (COLUMBIA/GISS, U of H, & PSU PROJECTS) • CHANGES IN • WINTER AND SUMMER STORM TRACKS • URBAN PRECIP • URBAN FLOODING • LITTLE COMMUNICATION B/T RESEARCH GROUPS • GLOBAL CHANGE • URBAN CLIMATE

  20. NYC OBS REFERENCES • Bornstein 1968: J. Appl. Met.., 7., 575-82. • Born. & Johnson 1977: At. Env., 11, 597-04 • Loose & Born. 1977: MWR, 105, 567-71. • Born. & Thompson, 1981: JAM, 20, 843-58 • Gaffen & Born. 1988: Met. and Atmos. Phys, 38, 185‑94 • Born.1987: Modeling the Urban BL, AMS, 53‑93.

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