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“The Rise of the Global State and Massively Intelligent Machines”

Professor Hugo de Garis envisions a future where the creation of a global state and massively intelligent machines shape global politics. Explore the ideologies of Globism and Cosmism, the factors driving towards a global state, the costs of current global politics, reasons for a world government, the benefits, skeptics, routes to achieving a global state, institutions, and tasks of building this new world order.

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“The Rise of the Global State and Massively Intelligent Machines”

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  1. 1 “The Rise of the Global State and Massively Intelligent Machines” Prof. Dr. Hugo de GARIS ARCing Mathematical Physicist and Former Director, Artificial Brain Lab, Xiamen University, China

  2. I believe our global politics • will be dominated by 2 new • major ideologies this century -- • Globism (the creation of a • global state (world government)) • b) Cosmism (the creation of • godlike massively intelligent • machines) 2

  3. A) GLOBISM 3 • Globism is the ideology in favor of building a • democratic global state (world government) • Accelerating technologies make the creation of • “Globa” more realistic. • No more wars • No more arms trade • No more ignorance • No more poverty

  4. GLOBISM 4 Many factors today are pushing towards the creation of a global state The most powerful one is the growing speed of the internet. BRAD (Bit Rate Annual Doubling) In 30 years, the internet will be a billion times faster than today, in 40 years it will be a trillion times faster. SO, a Global Media (“Glomedia”) will become possible giving everyone everything, i.e. all the world’s media, and in vivid 3D (“as real as real”).

  5. FACTORS PUSHING TOWARDS 5 A GLOBAL STATE       1.1 The Historical Size of Political Units                                     1.2 Greater tourism/travel      1.3 Economic growth      1.4 High speed trains, space planes 1.5 Internet speed doubles each year (plus other factors)                  Hence the creation of a Global Media (everyone gets all the world’s media)                   Hence the creation of a global language                  Hence cultural homogenization                       So the creation of a global state is made much easier

  6. 1.6 Economic/political blocs 6 1.7 Global Economy      1.8 World Court/International Law      1.9 Satellite TV      1.10 English, the  Global language      1.11 Global Media      1.12 Global Universities (Globiversities)      1.13 Global Media (Glomedia)      1.14 Cultural Homogenization      1.15 Global Mentality

  7. 7 ~200 COUNTRIES COSTS OF TODAY’S GLOBAL POLITICS   2.1 The Sovereign Nation State System vs. the Global State (World Government)  2.2 Fear - of Nuclear War  2.3 Fear  -  countries always preparing for the next war  2.4 $1.7 trillion spent each year on arms  2.5 Not tackling the planet’s problems

  8. 8 WHY WE NEED A WORLD GOVERNMENT (GLOBA) 3.1 Abolishing War 3.2 Preserving the Global Commons 3.3 Regulating the Global Financial System 3.4 Relieving the Plight of the Third World

  9. 9 BENEFITS of GLOBA                 5.1 No more wars          5.2 End of the arms trade                5.3 Everyone educated                5.4 Everyone wealthy                5.5 Greater happiness

  10. 10 • SKEPTICS of GLOBA • 6.1 Globalony • 6.2 Nationalism • 6.3 National Sovereignty • 6.4 Fear of Tyranny • 6.5 Cultural Differences • 6.6 Clash of Ideologies • 6.7 Religious Differences • 6.8 Charity Begins at Home • 6.9 Cultural Inertia • 6.10 Cultural Alienation • 6.11 The Multi-Mono Clash

  11. ROUTES to GLOBA 7.1 A Constitutional Convention 7.2 Expand the European Union (EU) 7.3 Merger of Regional Blocs 7.4 Reform of the United Nations 7.5 Grass Roots Pressure 7.6 A Democratizing World 7.7 Dominant Bully Model 7.8 Functionalist Model 7.9 Accretion Model 7.10 Time Table to GLOBA 11

  12. INSTITUTIONS of GLOBA                    8.1 Global Constitution                   8.2 Global President                   8.3 Global Parliament                   8.4 Global Political Parties                   8.5 Global Laws                   8.6 Global Civil Service                   8.7 Global Police                   8.8 Global Court                   8.9 Global Military                   8.10 Global Universities                   8.11 Global Education                   8.12 Global Taxation                   8.13 Global Wealth Distribution                   8.14 Global Resources                   8.15 Global Workers Unions                   8.16 Global Incomes Policies                   8.17 Global Currency Unit (the Globo)                   8.18 Global Health Insurance 12

  13. TASKS of GLOBA                     9.1 Global Ethics and Propaganda                    9.2 Global Nuclear Disarmament                    9.3 Banning the Arms Trade                    9.4 Global Environmental Challenges                    9.5 Global Poverty Elimination                    9.6 Global Taxation                    9.7 Incomes and Raw Materials Policy                    9.8 Global Education                    9.9 Global Population Migration                    9.10 Global Economics to Global Happiness                    9.11 Globa and Nanotechnology 13

  14. 14 FIRST STEPS to GLOBA 10.1 The Strategy of Jean Monnet 10.2 A Community of Democratic Nations 10.3 Reform of NATO and the OECD

  15. 15 B)COSMISM The ideology in favor of humanity building godlike, massively intelligent machines The question that will dominate our global politics this century will be -- “Should humanity build artilects (artificial intellects, with mental capacities trillions of trillions of times above the human level) in the next few decades? This issue will divide humanity bitterly into those who “want to build gods” and those who “want to preserve human species dominance”

  16. 16 DEFINITIONS Artilect : artificial intellect, massively intelligent machine Cosmist : a person who wants humanity to build artilects Terran : a person who does not want humanity to build artilects Cyborg : cybernetic organism, part machine part human Cyborgist : a person who wants to become an artilect by adding components to his brain Species Dominance Debate : Should humanity build artilects in the coming decades? Artilect War : A species dominance war between the Terrans and Cosmists/Cyborgists

  17. THREE MAIN PHILOSOPHIES IN THE SPECIES DOMINANCE DEBATE Cosmism, Terranism, Cyborgism What is Cosmism? Cosmism (based on the word cosmos) is the philosophy in favor of building artilects. Cosmists are the people who agree with Cosmist ideas. To Cosmists, building artilects with their trillion-trillion-fold superior mental capacities compared to human beings, their million-times-faster thinking, their unlimited memory, and immortality, would be like building gods. So Cosmists feel an almost (scientifically based) religious awe when thinking about artilect-building. 17

  18. 18 Cosmists want humanity to climb the next rung up the evolutionary ladder. Cosmists argue that it is human nature to be curious, to strive. They point out that there is a whole universe to explore and master (hence Cosmists) the “big picture.” Cosmists feel that the economic and military momentum behind the creation of home robots and soldier robots will make the rise of the artilects almost impossible to stop.

  19. 19 What is Terranism? Terranism (based on the word terra, the earth) is the philosophy that human beings should NOT build artilects. Terrans are the people who agree with Terran ideas. To Terrans, to build artilects would be to risk that humanity gets wiped out by vastly superior creatures whose ethics towards human beings would be unknown and unknowable, due to their vastly greater complexity and massive artificial intelligence. The Terrans will argue that the artilects could become so superior to us, they may end up treating us the way we humans look at mosquitoes or ants, i.e., as so inferior, we kill them and not give a damn.

  20. 20 Terrans will argue that the only way to ensure that the risk that humans get wiped out by artilects is zero, is that the artilects are never built in the first place. But this Terran policy flatly contradicts the aims of the Cosmists. When push really comes to shove, the Terrans will be prepared to wage an extermination war against the Cosmists for the sake of the survival of the human species.

  21. 21 What is Cyborgism? Cyborgism (based on the word cyborg, i.e., cybernetic organism, i.e., part machine, part human) is the philosophy that human beings can themselves become artilects. How? By modifying themselves using artilectual technology, e.g., being able to think much faster, have unlimited memory, become immortal, become disease free, etc. Cyborgists are people who agree with Cyborgian ideas. They argue that an Artilect War between the Cosmists and the Terrans can be avoided if all humans become Cyborgs, because there would be no Terrans and Cosmists left to fight each other.

  22. 22 Thus a horrible “Artilect War” killing billions of people (“gigadeath”) using 21st century nano-weapons, could be avoided. Cyborgists want humanity to transform itself from being humans to being artilects, to become gods themselves. However, the Cyborgists would be as much an enemy to the Terrans as the Cosmists, because advanced Cyborgs are indistinguishable from pure artilects in their mental capacities. (A nanoteched grain of sand has 10exp18 times the computational capacity of the human brain.)

  23. The SPECIES DOMINANCE ISSUE Topics 21st Century (Artilect Enabling) Technologies Artilects : Mental Capacities 10exp24 Times above Human Levels The Species Dominance Debate Starts Cosmists, Terrrans, Cyborgists Arguments of the Cosmists Arguments of the Terrans Arguments of the Cyborgists How the Artilect War Heats Up Gigadeath 23

  24. 24 21st CENTURY (Artilect Enabling) TECHNOLOGIES a) Moore’s Law b) 1 bit/atom by 2020 c) Femto-second Switching d) Reversible Computing e) Nanotech(nology) f) Artificial Embryology g) Evolutionary Engineering h) (Topological) Quantum Computing i) Nanotech Impact on Brain Science j) Artificial Brains

  25. 25 The Artilect : Capacities 10exp24 Times above Human Levels Artilect = Artificial Intellect The human brain has a switching capacity of about 10exp16 bit flips per second. An Artilect could have 10exp40 bit flips per second. So, an Artilect has a trillion trillion times the human brain capacity.

  26. THE SPECIES DOMINANCE DEBATE STARTS As the IQ gap between humans and artilects closes, human beings will split into 3 main groups – The Cosmists (favorable to building Artilects) The Terrans (opposed to building Artilects) The Cyborgists (who will become Artilects themselves) Should humanity build these godlike massively intelligent machines? This is the most important question of the 21st century, Dominating our global politics, comparable with : “Who should own capital?” of the 19th and 20th centuries. 26

  27. 27 ARGUMENTS OF THE COSMISTS a) Big Picture Argument b) Scientific Religion c) Building Artilect Gods d) Human Striving, Cant be Stopped e) Economic Momentum f) Military Momentum

  28. 28 • ARGUMENTS OF THE TERRANS • a) Preserve the Human Species • b) Fear of Difference • c) Rejection of the Cyborgs • d) Unpredictable Complexity • e) Cosmist Inconsideration • Time Window, to React against the Cosmists/ • Cyborgists/Cyborgs/Artilects

  29. 29 ARGUMENTS OF THE CYBORGS a) Become Artilect Gods Ourselves b) Avoid the Cosmist/Terran Clash

  30. 30 HOW THE ARTILECT WAR HEATS UP Nanotech revolutionizes Neuroscience Neuro-engineering weds with Neuro-science Artificial Brain technology creates massive industries Intelligence Theory (IT) is developed Artilects get smarter every year Debate begins to rage, political parties form Debate turns violent, assassination, sabotage Terrans strike, before its too late for them Cosmists anticipate this strike, and are ready Later 21st century weapons, leads to Gigadeath war

  31. TIMELINE FOR THE • SPECIES DOMINANCE DEBATE • The 2010s will be the decade of massive artificial brain • research. • The 2020s will be the decade of the growth of a massive trillion • dollar artificial brain industry to e.g. control home robots. • During the 2020s and 2030s billions of people will notice the • IQ gap between human intelligence and machine intelligence • closing as they upgrade their home robots every year or so. • As that IQ gap closes, people will be asking with ever growing • passion “Should humanity allow artilects to be built?” 31

  32. 32 • Since the stakes have never been so high (the survival of the • human species) the passion level in the species dominance • debate will be extremely high. • The Terrans will freak out being surrounded by Cyborgs • and Artilects all around them with threateningly high • artificial intelligence. • The Terrans will first strike before they become too stupid. • The Cosmists/Cyborgs will hit back  Artilect War

  33. GIGADEATH 33 Number of People Killed in Major Wars Artilect War, Billions WW2, 50-100 Million WW1, 20 Million Napoleonic Wars, 1 Million 1800 1900 2000 2100

  34. Pollyannists vs. Jeremaists (i.e. Optimists vs. Pessimists) The species dominance community has split into two major ideological camps, the Pollyannists and the Jeremaists. The Pollyannists are all “sweetness and light”. All of humanity will become cyborgs in small increments, and hence become disease free, far more intelligent, immortal, etc. – all very optimistic and positive. (Chief protagonist – Ray Kurzweil) The Jeremaists are all “doom and gloom”. Not all humans will accept becoming advanced cyborgs. The Terrans will first strike the Cosmists/Cyborgists/Artilects/Cyborgs before they are too stupid to win an “Artilect War” – all very pessimistic and negative. (Chief protagonist – Hugo de Garis). SO, use questionnaires (the wisdom of the crowd), to settle this. 34

  35. 35 QUESTIONNAIRE In the last minutes of this talk, please fill in the questionnaire (about 20 questions) The results of this questionnaire will be used as the basis for a press release to a dozen countries, to help raise global awareness of the “Species Dominance Issue” The following dozen countries will be approached -- US, Canada, Australia, NZ, UK, France, Belgium, Holland, Germany, Japan, Korea, India Hence this questionnaire is important!

  36. 36 TAKE HOME MESSAGE The take home message of this talk, is that the rise of the artilect is not some vague, distant 22nd century, science fiction maybe, but rather something that will become very real in the next few decades, due to the exponential increase in the advance of artilect enabling technologies and knowledge. The species dominance issue will not go away. As the IQ gap between human and machine closes in the 2020s and 2030s, the “species dominance debate” will heat up and may lead to an “Artilect War” killing billions of people (“gigadeath”)

  37. 37 CONTACT Prof. Dr. Hugo de GARIS profhugodegaris@yahoo.com Website (books, media, essays, etc) http://profhugodegaris.wordpress.com

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