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Dominika Kalinowska Hartmut Kuhfeld Uwe Kunert (DIW Berlin, Germany) The diesel trend in Europe: does taxation matter ? Presentation at the COST Action 355 Meeting Berlin November 23 - 25 2005. Outline.

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  1. Dominika KalinowskaHartmut KuhfeldUwe Kunert(DIW Berlin, Germany)The diesel trend in Europe:does taxation matter ?Presentation at the COST Action 355 Meeting BerlinNovember 23 - 25 2005

  2. Outline - Tax systems and assessment basis in cross EU comparison – evidence for significant differences.- Comparing petrol and diesel passenger cars – do existing differences in tax charges have any detectable impact. - Focusing on France and Germany – what factors might influence observable preferences in aggregate passenger car purchase and ownership behaviour.

  3. in % 75 L A B F 60 E I P EU 15 45 D GB N CH 30 NL DK IRL FIN 15 IS S GR 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Quelle: ACEA. Share of diesel passenger cars in new registrations

  4. Untere Mittelklasse - VW Golf 1.4 - Ottomotor Euro / Jahr 4 000 3 500 Umsatzsteuer Mineralöl 3 000 Mineralölabgaben Versicherungsabgaben 2 500 Kfz-Steuer Umsatzsteuer Kauf 2 000 Zulassungsabgaben 1 500 1 000 500 0 DK N IRL NL M P FIN GB B I H A SLO S D F GR PL E CH CY L SK CZ LV LT EST Annahmen: 15 000 km, Verbrauch 6,8 l/100 km. Quellen: ACEA; ADAC; IRF; BMF; Europäische Kommission; Berechnungen des DIW Berlin (Stand: August 2005). Fiscal duties charged on passenger cars – EU comparison

  5. Untere Mittelklasse - VW Golf 2.0 SDI - Dieselmotor Euro / Jahr 4 000 3 500 USt Mineralöl 3 000 Mineralölsteuer Versicherungssteuer 2 500 Kfz-Steuer USt Kauf 2 000 Zulassungsabgaben 1 500 1 000 500 0 N DK IRL NL P CY M GR FIN S B GB H SLO D I A F E CH PL SK LV CZ L LT EST Annahmen: 15 000 km, Verbrauch 5,3 l/100 km. Quellen: ACEA; ADAC; IRF; Europäische Kommission; Berechnungen des DIW Berlin (Stand: August 2005). Total annualized duties charged – EU comparison for diesel car

  6. Untere Mittelklasse - VW Golf Euro / Jahr 3 000 2 500 Golf Basis 1.4 - Ottomotor Golf 2.0 SDI - Diesel 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 A F E D P I GR IRL NL Annahmen: 15 000 km, Verbrauch 6,8 bzw. 5,3 l/100 km. Quellen: ACEA; ADAC; IRF; Europäische Kommission; Berechnungen des DIW Berlin (Stand: August 2005). Total annualized duties charged – comparison for petrol vs. diesel car

  7. VW Golf 1.4 - Ottomotor vs. VW Golf 2.0 SDI - Dieselmotor Diesel : Otto 10 Tsd. km 15 Tsd. km 20 Tsd. km 225% 200% 175% 150% 125% 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% A B CH CY CZ D DK E EST F FIN GB GR H I IRL L LT LV M N NL P PL S SK SLO Annahmen: Verbrauch 6,8 l/100 km Ottomotor; 5,3 l/100 km Dieselmotor. Quellen: ACEA; ADAC; IRF; Europäische Kommission; Berechnungen des DIW Berlin (Stand: August 2005). Annualized duties – comparison for petrol vs. diesel passenger car

  8. BMW 730i - Ottomotor vs. BMW 730d - Dieselmotor Diesel : Otto 10 Tsd. km 15 Tsd. km 20 Tsd. km 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% A B CH CY CZ D DK E EST F FIN GB GR H I IRL L LT LV M N NL P PL S SK SLO Annahmen: Verbrauch 10,6 l/100 km Ottomotor; 8,5 l/100 km Dieselmotor. Quellen: ACEA; ADAC; IRF; Europäische Kommission; Berechnungen des DIW Berlin (Stand: März 2005). Annualized duties – comparison for petrol vs. diesel passenger car

  9. GR S IS FIN Bestand (2000-2005) IRL Neuzulassungen (2004) DK NL CH N GB D EU15 P I E F B A L in % 0 15 30 45 60 Quellen: ACEA, Eurostat, andere. Share of diesel passenger cars in overall car fleet and new registrations

  10. Focusing on France and Germany Looking closer at France and Germany – background of the comparison:- country specific tendencies within newly registered passenger cars from the EU comparison - STSM of the COST 355 hosted by INRETS-DEST under the supervision of Laurent Hivert and supported by the rest of the DEST research team coordinated by Christophe Rizet - direct comparison of data sources and exchange of research results - concentration on analysis of research results based on micro data from relevant travel surveys (not part of today‘s presentation) - what stands out?

  11. in % 75 L A B F 60 E I P EU 15 45 D GB N CH 30 NL DK IRL FIN 15 IS S GR 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Quelle: ACEA. Share of diesel passenger cars in new registrations

  12. Similarities and differences – F and G Parallels and dissimilarities in the purchase and ownership of passenger cars – is there any evidence for comparability of behavioural patterns: - new registrations and fleets of passenger cars - observable trends from time series - analogue developments in the two neighbour countries

  13. Share of diesel passenger cars in overall car fleets and new registrations – comparison France and Germany, 1990-2004 –

  14. Passenger car fleets in France and Germany Potential explanations for apparent purchasing trends of passenger cars:- significance of engine-type specific differences in fiscal duties charged on passenger cars- fuel price evolution of petrol vs. diesel – the fiscal component - additional aspects – efficiency effects and supply side reaction from the automobile industry

  15. Total annualized duties – comparison for a diesel car in NL, G, F, CH

  16. Fuel price evolution for petrol and diesel – France, 1980-2004

  17. Fuel price evolution for petrol and diesel – Germany, 1980-2004

  18. Fuel price differences between petrol and diesel

  19. Fiscal duties charged on fuels – France and Germany 1980-2004

  20. Fuel price developements and new passenger car registrations– France, 1990-2004 –

  21. Concluding remarks - for 14 of 17 countries studied clear positioning of diesel-share in relation to taxation can be observed - fuel duties contribute strongest to relative advantage of diesel cars- structure of the petroleum tax favours in many cases the diesel fuel and provides as a result for lower per-km cost- what potential consequences has the fiscal promotion of diesel fuel – the „rebound effect“ - producers‘ response to the „diesel-trend“ – the automobile industry has widened their product range- promotion of diesel cars for CO2 reduction targets

  22. Concluding Remarks - for more than a decade F has been dominating within the EU with its diesel car shares in new registrations as well as in the overall national passsenger car fleet evolution- the consistently existing relative fiscal cost advantage of diesel vehicles supported by their fuel efficiency allowed the French car users to shift their preferences towards this particular engine segment over a fairly long time period – supply side adjustments from the car manufacturers side followed contributing positively to the evolving diesel passenger car demand- since beginning of the 90s diesel cars have been evolving also in G into an economically attractive automobility alternative – rising shares of newly registered diesel cars clearly indicate this tendency- where does the development in G lead – can France‘s diesel-trend be seen as pathbreaking? and can advanced methodological analysis clear the picture?

  23. Concluding Remarks - for more than a decade F has been dominating within the EU with its diesel car shares in new registrations as well as in the overall national passsenger car fleet evolution- plausible explanations for the evident popularity of diesel passanger vehicles in F are the moderate annualized taxation charges on cars with diesel engine, in particular the long run favourable fiscality of diesel fuel in contrast to petrol- the consistently existing relative price advantage of diesel vehicles supported by their fuel efficiency allowed the French car users to shift their preferences towards this particular engine segment over a fairly long time period – supply side adjustments from the car manufacturers side followed contributing positively to the evolving diesel passenger car demand- since beginning of the 90s diesel cars evolved also in G into an economically attractive automobility alternative – rising shares of newly registered diesel cars clearly indicate this tendency for G- where does the development in G lead – can France‘s diesel-trend be seen as pathbreaking? and can advanced methodological analysis clear the picture?

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