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Using the Farm Program Decision Tools

Using the Farm Program Decision Tools. R. Brent Young, Ph.D. Agriculture and Business Management Specialist Colorado State University Extension. Jeff Tranel Norm Dalsted. Jesse Russell Dennis Kaan. Your Risk Management Toolbox. Public Tools: PLC, ARC-CO, ARC-IC, Crop Insurance

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Using the Farm Program Decision Tools

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  1. Using the Farm Program Decision Tools R. Brent Young, Ph.D. Agriculture and Business Management Specialist Colorado State University Extension Jeff Tranel Norm Dalsted Jesse Russell Dennis Kaan

  2. Your Risk Management Toolbox • Public Tools: PLC, ARC-CO, ARC-IC, Crop Insurance • Private Sector Tools (things producers can do on their own): • Hedging commodities • Using options contacts (commodities & inputs) • Forward contracting commodities • Advance purchase of inputs • Collective Solutions (things producers do with help): • Forward pricing: cooperative or other buyer offers a fixed price contract for a future period and uses futures markets to protect their position.

  3. Title 1 Farm Bill Process

  4. Evaluate your safety net options

  5. Two Online Tools are Available NCPE Illinois Program NAAFP Texas A&M Program

  6. National Coalition for Producer Education (NCPE) • http://farmbilltoolbox.farmdoc.illinois.edu/arc-plc-decision-steps.html

  7. Opening Screen

  8. Step 1 Collect Information

  9. Sample FSA Letter

  10. Reported Commodity Crop History Summary

  11. Step 2 Keep or Update Yields

  12. APAS Online Tool

  13. Payment Yield Update Calculator

  14. Payment Yield Update Calculator

  15. Step 3 Retain or Reallocate Base Acres

  16. Base Acre Reallocation Tool

  17. Step 4 Compare ARC-CO and PLC

  18. APAS Online Tool

  19. APAS Sample Farm

  20. All Crops

  21. Prices

  22. Wheat

  23. Grain Sorghum

  24. Corn

  25. Build Your Own Farm

  26. Build Your Own Farm

  27. Step 5 Consider ARC-IC

  28. All Crops

  29. Step 6 Consider SCO

  30. All Crops

  31. Step 7 Sign-up

  32. NAAFP Decision Aid • National Association of Agriculture and Policy (NAAFP) has been working on the decision aid for more about 2 years. NAAFP is led by • AFPC at Texas A&M • FAPRI at University of Missouri-Columbia • Applied for and received funding from USDA-FSA to develop a nation-wide decision aid • Available at: https://USDA.afpc.tamu.edu • And at: www.afpc.tamu.edu

  33. Overview of NAAFP Farm Bill Decision Aid • Register as a producer or a multi-client user • Email address and password protect your data • Email address allows us to contact user when FSA changes rules and when new price projections are available • Enter data for all of the farm’s FSA Numbers • All Crops and their Practices by Type • Types not critical to FSA but important to RMA for SCO, STAX, and Insurance Decisions • Types of Analyses • Yield update • Base reallocation • ARC-IC, ARC-CO, PLC, SCO • STAX and SCO for cotton • Insurance options (Y, RP, RP-HPE, CAT, None)

  34. Overview of NAAFP Farm Bill Decision Aid • Producers’ data are stored in the decision aid • Data accessed by a user name and password • Secured behind Texas A&M firewall, along with student grades and records • Producers can enter their data, run for alternative prices as updated by FAPRI monthly • Yield Update Decision • Next analyze the interaction between Base Reallocation and PLC and ARC-CO Election • Before final election, farmers can re-run the analysis for March price outlook • Run Insurance Analysis annually for next 5 years

  35. Information Needed for the NAAFP Decision Aid • Information available from two primary sources • FSA Reported Commodity Crop History Summary (letter from FSA to producers, August 2014) • FSA farm number • Base Acres and CCP Yield for covered crops • Crop Insurance Actual Production Report • Historical yields and planted acres • Ten years of yields preferred but 2008-2012 are essential

  36. NAAFP Information Sheet

  37. First Step Is to Register

  38. Producer vs. Multi Client User

  39. Create Client Records & Switch Clients

  40. Yield Update Analyzer

  41. Verify Yield Data 2008-2012

  42. Yield Update Analyzer

  43. Base Acre Reallocation & PLC/ARC Decision Aid

  44. Verify Input for Base, PLC, ARC

  45. Verify Input for Base, PLC, ARC

  46. Mean Prices to Analyze

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