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Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead

This document outlines key findings, recommendations, and research priorities for improving understanding, data collection, and forecasting of tropical cyclones. It emphasizes the need for coordinated multiagency efforts and the development of a 10-year research implementation plan.

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Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead

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  1. Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead Dr. Frank Marks NOAA OAR/AOML/HRD March 6, 2007

  2. Overview • Key Findings and Recommendations • Data Collection & Research • NOAA Research to Support Chapter 5 Priorities

  3. Key Findings & Recommendations • Data collection • Significant gaps in meeting observation requirements • Remotely sensed ocean surface vector winds (e.g., QuikSCAT) • Accurate measurement of 3-D global wind field • Satellite altimetry: JAG/TCR strongly endorses acquisition of an altimeter instrument as an alternative to the cancelled NPOESS ALT JAG/TCR strongly supports R&D to help meet reqmts • Through the OFCM infrastructure, need to develop a strategic plan for improved TC recon & surveillance (manned, unmanned, space-based) • Consider observations and observing strategies for forecaster needs initialization of advanced hurricane models, and NWP model diagnostics & verification

  4. Key Findings & Recommendations • Tropical cyclone research • Section 5.1 and Table 5-1: atmospheric / oceanic-related priorities • Section 5.2: Climate (interseasonal, interannual, and longer-term variability) • Section 5.3 and Appendix P: social sciences • JAG/TCR recommends: • Strong support for activities focused on research identified in Chapter 5 • Social science research be an integral part of hurricane forecast and warning program • Through OFCM infrastructure, development of a 10-year, multiagency research implementation plan • Outline specific strategies to address research priorities

  5. Key Findings & Recommendations

  6. Key Findings & Recommendations

  7. NOAA Hurricane Research • Built on partnerships: • National • IFEX involving NCEP, NESDIS & NMAO, plus NSF/RAINEX, NASA/CAMEX, TCSP & NAMMA, ONR/CBLAST • International • AMMA (EU and African countries) • Extra-tropical Transition (Canada & EU) • 6th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VI) sponsored by WMO - November 2006

  8. Improve Understanding JAS special CAMEX issue January 2006 BAMS IFEX & RAINEX January 2007 CBLAST March 2007

  9. Improved Processes in Model • Improved understanding of air-sea interaction in high winds (CBLAST): • Improved drag & enthalpy flux coefficients • Wave impacts on surface fluxes • Sea spray impact on surface fluxes

  10. Improved Observing Systems • Airborne Doppler Radar: 2 WP-3D & G-IVSupports operational hurricane modeling objectives of NCEP • SFMR:remote sensing instrument designed to directly estimate surface winds in hurricane • UAS: Aerosonde Demonstration http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2003/doppler.html http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2005/sfmr.html

  11. NE SW NE SW Calipso Improved Observing Systems • Upper ocean observations: Altimetry • Targeted upper ocean observations (IFEX/NSF/CBLAST/OGP): AXCP/AXCTDs/ AXBTs, Drifters & Floats • Observations of SAL (IFEX/NAMMA):satellite TPW & aerosol, Dropsondes

  12. Where are we at? This is a Major Undertaking (No Quick Fix) requiring NOAA & DOD to work closely with Universities (+UCAR/NCAR) and other Federal Agencies (NASA, NSF),and provide requirements and leadership to: • Improve understanding of physical processes that lead to intensity/structure & track change in TCs through better use of models & observations • Develop and test tools/technologies needed for an integrated TC forecasting system based on NWP models, DA, and observations • Develop/test new strategies for better warnings of TC impacts (surge, wave, rain, severe wx), enabling emergency planners to provide appropriate level of preparedness • Improve understanding of relationship of changes in TC characteristics to long term climate change • Develop next generation of TC researchers and forecasters

  13. Recommendations • Need a formal, multiagency, coordination entity to: • Monitor & update operational needs of TC forecast warning centers • Monitor and update research priorities to meet operational needs • Develop 10-year, multiagency federal research implementation plan outlining specific strategies to address research priorities • Update implementation plan at least annually • Coordinate development/maintenance of research implementation plan within OFCM infrastructure. • Form TC Research Working Group to maintain/publish implementation plan and provide updates at IHC annually • TC Research Working Group members must be involved in agency programming/planning activities to insure connection to mission priorities

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