Advances in Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting through the USWRP Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT)

1. USWRP Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT)Opportunities for Transfer of Research and Technology into Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecast Operations AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology 4 May 2004

2. Purpose of this Session • NOAA continues to seek new science and technology to improve operational tropical cyclone analysis and forecasting • The testing and evaluation of existing, mature, and promising science and technology in an operational setting will be funded by grants • An announcement of opportunity for grant proposals will be released on or about 1 June 2004

3. Session Agenda • Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) Overview • Dr. Jiann-Gwo Jiing, JHT Director and TPC/NHC • JHT 2004 Announcement of Opportunity • Dr. Ward Seguin, USWRP • JHT Proposal Reviews and the Testing and Evaluation Process • Dr. Richard Knabb, JHT Admin. Asst. and TPC/NHC • James Franklin, TPC/NHC • Open Discussion, Questions and Answers

4. USWRP Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT)Overview Dr. Jiann-Gwo JiingJHT DirectorTPC/NHC Technical Support Branch Chief

5. Outline • JHT Mission Statement • Major Activities 2001-03 • JHT Infrastructure • TPC Operational Environment • JHT Computing Resources • TPC/NHC Contributions to JHT • JHT First Round Projects • JHT Second Round Project Focus Areas • JHT Future Plans

6. JHT Mission Statement The mission of the Joint (NOAA, Navy, and NASA) Hurricane Test Bed is to transfer more rapidly and smoothly new technology, research results, and observational advances of the USWRP, its sponsoring agencies, the academic community and other groups into improved tropical cyclone analysis and prediction at operational centers.

7. Major Activities 2001-03 • Established the JHT 2001-02 • Developed Terms of Reference (Mar 2001-May 2002) • Including establishment of the process and criteria for a successful transfer from research to operations • Funded initial round of 10 projects for a first year (Jun 2001) • Formed Steering Committee (Mar 2002) • Renewed 9 of 10 first round projects for a second year (FY02) (Q3 2002) • Procured hardware (Q3 2002) • Hired IT Facilitator (Jun 2002)

8. Major Activities 2001-03 • First Round Project Assessments 2002-03 • IT configuration and algorithm processing provided for each project to facilitate forecaster participation • Real-time testing and evaluation activities (Jun-Nov 2002) and continued during 2003 season • PIs presented updates at 56th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference (IHC) (Mar 2002) and 57th IHC (Mar 2003) • FY01-02 projects concluded (Jun-Aug 2003) • JHT reports on results from 2002-03 hurricane seasons (Nov 2003) • TPC/NHC decisions for operational implementation (Dec 2003)

9. JHT Infrastructure Personnel • Quarter-time Director (NOAA FTE) • 7-member Steering Committee • Three from NOAA (one TPC), two from DOD, and two from the academic community • TPC member serves as co-Chair • Two quarter-time administrative assistants • One IT Facilitator Computing Resources • Server and workstations • Software

10. TPC/NHC Contributions to JHT Logistics • Dedicated physical space in operations, offices Personnel • TPC dedicating 1.5 staff years of effort • Forecaster and technical points of contact (POC) • Programming, system administration, and network support • Administrative support Computing Resources • Network connectivity • Operational data flow

11. TPC Operational Environment Platforms/Applications • N-AWIPS - GEMPAK • ATCF • Satellite processing – McIDAS-X • AWIPS Hardware • HP servers/workstations • Red Hat Linux workstations Data • Satellite imagery - McIDAS AREA files • Observational data – GEMPAK, text, binary; NetCDF (AWIPS) • Numerical model output – grib and GEMPAK grid • ATCF data – text files (“decks”)

12. JHT Computing Resources Hardware • JHT Server • Physically located in equipment room • HP 9000 A-class (A500 Enterprise Server) • HP-UX 11i • Two 550 MHz RISC processors • 4 GB memory • 292 GB hard disk space • DLT 8000 tape drive • JHT Workstation • Physically located in hurricane operations area • HP workstation c3600 • HP-UX 11.0 • One 550 MHz RISC processor • 72 GB hard disk space • 1.5 GB memory Software • N-AWIPS - GEMPAK

13. PIs / POCs connect on public JHT side Private Public

14. JHT First Round ProjectsAccepted by TPC for Operational Implementation AMSU intensity and size estimates GFDL Hurricane Model upgrades TC rainfall climatology and persistence (R-CLIPER) model Probability of rapid intensification New SHIPS model predictors

15. JHT Second Round (FY03-04)Project Focus Areas

16. JHT Future Plans • Round Two projects (FY03-04 funding) • Review each project for second year of funding (FY04 funding) • Real-time testing and evaluation during 2004 hurricane season, and at least part of 2005 season • Decision in late 2005 for operational implementation • Round Three projects (FY05-06 funding) • Release new announcement of opportunity in June 2004 • Select and fund new set of projects by spring 2005 • Real-time testing and evaluation during 2005 and 2006 hurricane seasons • Decisions in late 2006 for operational implementation in 2007

17. USWRP Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT)2004 Announcement of Opportunity Dr. Ward Seguin, USWRP

19. USWRP Hurricane Landfall Priorities • Reduce landfall track and intensity errors by 20 percent • Extend track forecasts to 120 hours with an average error less than 250 nautical miles • Increase warning lead time to 24 hours and beyond with 95% confidence • Make skillful forecasts (compared to persistence) of gale- and hurricane-force wind radii out to 48 hours with 95% confidence • Extend quantitative precipitation forecasts to three days and improve skill of day-three forecasts to improve inland flooding forecasts

20. Operational Centers’Forecast Improvement Needs • Complementary to USWRP goals • TPC/NHC highest priorities • Guidance on intensity change, esp. rapid intensity change • Improved observations in the storm and its environment • “Guidance on guidance” for track, intensity, and precipitation • Enhancements to the operational environment to increase forecaster efficiency • Improved storm surge guidance models • Nine more (see announcement) • EMC highest priorities • General model improvements to advance track and intensity forecasts • Improved boundary layer representation for coupled models • Model validation techniques for 3-D hi res verification • Diagnostic techniques to increase utility of global models

21. Award Information • Estimate of funds available: $1,500,000 • Funding of any JHT proposals is contingent upon availability of these funds • 10 to 15 new projects likely to be funded • Period of awards is one to two years, funded one year at a time (two-year projects reviewed near end of first year) • Funding instrument for non-Federal applicants will be a Cooperative Agreement based on the envisioned substantial involvement of NOAA forecasters and scientists

22. Eligible Applicants • Institutions of higher education • Other nonprofits • Commercial organizations • Foreign governments • Organizations under the jurisdiction of foreign governments • International organizations • State, local and Indian tribal governments • Federal agencies

23. Key Dates • 1 July 2004, 5:00 pm EDT: Preapplications (letters of intent) due • 25 August 2004: Government notifications of recommendations on whether to submit a full proposal will be sent • 15 October 2004, 5:00 pm EDT: Full proposals due • Funding expected winter or early spring 2005 • Projects should not be expected to begin prior to February 1, 2005

24. Submission Requirements • Non-Federal applications require forms contained in the standard NOAA Grants and Cooperative Agreement Application Package • Required content and format of the preapplications and full proposals will be spelled out in the announcement of opportunity • Preapplications may be sent as printed hard copies, or, preferably, they may be submitted electronically • Full proposals and all additionally required forms must be submitted as printed hard copies • Electronic submission of the proposal document (without the required forms), in PDF format, is strongly encouraged to facilitate the review process

25. Award Notices • Funded projects become a JHT activity with a duration of one to two years • Two-year proposals are initially funded for one year, with funding for a second year contingent upon favorable review near the end of the first year and upon available funds • For non-Federal proposals, official notification of funding, signed by a NOAA Grants Officer, is the authorizing document that allows the project to begin • Notifications will be issued to the TPC/NHC Director and the Principal Investigator of the project • Unsuccessful applicants will be notified that their proposal was not selected

26. USWRP Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT)Proposal Reviews and theTesting and Evaluation Process Dr. Richard Knabb, JHT Admin. Asst.TPC/NHC Science and Operations OfficerJames Franklin, TPC/NHC Hurricane Specialist

27. Preapplication Review Process • PIs strongly encouraged to submit a preapplication for each planned proposal • PIs who do not submit a preapplication will not be precluded from submitting a full proposal • Each preapplication will be reviewed by the JHT Steering Committee (and/or other designated reviewers) • All PIs submitting a preapplication will be notified whether a full proposal is encouraged or discouraged • All PIs will receive a brief synopsis of the factors leading to the recommendation regarding their own preapplication(s)

28. Full Proposal Review Process • All full proposals will receive an independent, objective review in accordance with review criteria stated in the announcement • Reviews will be conducted by the JHT Steering Committee (and/or other designated reviewers) • Each member of the review panel will individually evaluate and score every proposal (except in cases of recusal) • Scores will be used to produce a rank ordering of the proposals by overall mean total scores, after normalizing by individual reviewers’ mean total scores • All applicants will receive their normalized average scores and rankings (by criteria and total) regarding their own proposal

29. Review Criteria (Condensed) • Relevance to program goals (40 pts) • Research maturity (10 pts) • Priority-to-payoff factors (25 pts) • Other agency use (5 pts) • Technical merit (40 pts) • Risk-to-payoff factors (10 pts) • Testing (10 pts) • Operational usage (10 pts) • Technical compatibility (10 pts) • Overall qualification of applicants (10 pts) • Project costs (10 pts)

30. What Happens After You’re Funded • JHT staff will provide project administration and facilitation • TPC/NHC and/or EMC will designate your forecaster and/or technical point(s) of contact • Establishment of project timeline with JHT Director and points of contact • Project provided access to JHT IT environment • Preparations for real-time testing and evaluation begin • Interactions with point(s) of contact, JHT staff, and/or JHT IT Facilitator as necessary

31. Hotline Coordination Call

32. Advisory Forecast Cycle

34. Advisory Forecast Cycle

35. Testing and Evaluation Activities • Pre-season preparations, including any necessary modifications to a technique • Formatting output for direct forecaster use • Providing training, documentation, etc. needed to enable real-time use • Real-time testing and evaluation in a quasi-operational environment • Obtaining feedback from forecasters • Off-season simulations/case study runs • Post-season verification and evaluation • Technique tuning, adjustments, and/or modifications if necessary • Close collaboration between JHT staff, TPC staff, and funded researchers and their staffs

36. Reporting RequirementsDuring the Project • Written semi-annual reports • Renewal proposal along with second semi-annual report (for review for continuation into second year) • Final report at conclusion of project

37. Input for JHT Project Reportsto the TPC Director • Project PI final report • JHT staff members’ assessments • TPC Point of Contact (POC) feedback • JHT IT Facilitator report • IT transfer status • Compatibility and support issues • Estimates of costs to implement and support • Input from TPC Technical Support Branch Chief

38. Example: Development of a Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Climatology and Persistence (R-CLIPER) Model PI: Frank Marks (NOAA/AOML/HRD) POC: Stacy Stewart and Hugh Cobb (TPC), David Roth (HPC) Status: Accepted by TPC for operational implementation • Provide baseline TC rainfall forecasts for assessing skill of other methods • Develop R-CLIPER from gauge and TMI climatology for operational and model QPF comparisons • Project climatology along forecast track

39. Example: Development of a Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Climatology and Persistence (R-CLIPER) Model Example real-time output in NAWIPS during Hurricane Lili (2002)

40. Example: Development of a Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Climatology and Persistence (R-CLIPER) Model • Considerations for operational implementation decision • Favorable: • Provides baseline forecast, as originally intended, needed to evaluate the skill of other sources of TC rainfall guidance (primarily dynamical models, as in the new JHT project funded in FY03) • TPC and HPC forecasters have found the guidance to be useful operationally (e.g., for preparing generalized rainfall information in public advisories) • Code has been transferred to TPC where it is run and maintained locally • Gempak/NMAP2 graphical output already routinely available to specialists for each active TC in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins • Negligible CPU, disk space, memory to run; minimal support required • Unfavorable: • Unclear reason for needed adjustment factor to final output • Verification results not yet completed • Does not account for storm asymmetries

41. Example: Development of a Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Climatology and Persistence (R-CLIPER) Model Example content for IT report to TPC Director

42. Factors Considered in TPC Decisionsfor Operational Implementation • Forecast or Analysis Benefit: expected improvement in operational forecast and/or analysis accuracy • Efficiency: adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needs • Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc. • Sustainability: availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide support

43. USWRP Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT)Opportunities for Transfer of Research and Technology into Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecast Operations Open DiscussionWebsite: www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/jht/index.html

44. USWRP Supplemental Slides

45. Reporting RequirementsDuring the Project • Award recipients are required to submit performance (technical) reports to the JHT Director • Electronic submission preferred • All reports will be submitted on a semi-annual schedule, due no later than 30 days following the end of each 6-month period • Comprehensive final report due 90 days after award expiration

46. TPC/NHC Six-hour Forecast Cycle

47. Status of 10 First Round Projects (FY01-02) • Ten projects were funded in FY01 • One was denied second year funding • Six were accepted for operational • implementation • Decisions on two projects were deferred until • the completion of closely related new projects • One was not accepted for operational • implementation at this time

48. Summary of Second Round of Projects Funded in LateFY03 FY03 Announcement of Opportunity • Preparation, revision, and legal review of Federal Register Notice (FRN) Aug-Dec 2002 • FRN released January 2003 • Open to government, academic, and private sector applicants worldwide • Estimated total available funding $1.5M

49. Funding Distribution ComparisonIncreased funding to researchers outside of NOAA FY2003$1.35M FY2002$1.2M