Global Warming, Economics and Christian Ethics

1. Global Warming, Economics and Christian Ethics Timothy D. Boyle Economics Department, Kwansei Gakuin University

2. Aims Of This Presentation 1. The Environment and Christian ethics 2. Setting the Stage: The Earth’s Design 3. Mechanisms of Global Warming 4. Is Anthropogenic Climate Change Real? 5. Possible Solutions and Economic Implications

3. Part 1The Environment and Christian ethics • “Rule over … every living creature…” Gen. 1:28 • The LORD God took the man and put him in the Garden of Eden to work it and take care of it. Gen 2:15 • For six years sow your fields… . But in the seventh year the land is to have a sabbath of rest… . The land is to have a year of rest. Lev. 25:3-5 • The Bible teaches that God entrusted the earth’s resources to humans, and it is our responsibility to use them wisely.

4. Part 2Setting the StageFormation of the Solar System 4.6 Billion Years Ago

5. The Early Earth and the Formation of the Moon Without the moon, life on earth would be impossible. (4 minute video clip)

6. Without the moon formation event, the earth would be like Venus Atmosphere is 96.5% CO2 with a pressure about 93 times that of earth Surface temperature: 467ﾟC

7. Transformations of the Atmosphere Much thinner than the original atmosphere An atmosphere that allowed a stable water cycle An atmosphere protected by a strong magnetic field An atmospheric makeup transformed by life activities

8. Factors Necessary for a Life-Support Planet Factors relative to the entire universe (more than 30) Example: Ratio of the strengths of the gravitational force and the electromagnetic force must be fine-tuned to better than 1 part in 1040 (1040 = 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000, 000,000,000,000,000,000). Parameters of the galaxy and parent star (several dozen) Planetary factors, such as mass, chemical makeup, distance from parent star, etc. (more than 100) More than 200 fine-tuned factors.

9. Factors Necessary for a Life-Support Planet (2) • Timing of life development vis a vis luminosity increase of parent star. The “Greenhouse effect” was necessary to keep earth warm enough for life. But it had to be gradually reduced to keep earth from getting too hot due to increasing solar luminosity.

10. Part 3 Mechanisms of Global Warming Without “greenhouse gases,” earth would be 33ﾟC cooler.

11. Atmospheric Trans-mission and Absorption of Radiant Energy

12. Natural Causes for Climate Variation Milankovitch Cycles

13. History of Eccentricity, Tilt, and Precession

14. ImportantClimateOscillations Orbital factors Milankovitch Cycles Oceanic Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) El Niño – La Niña - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Atmospheric North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Arctic Oscillation (AO) Pacific-North American Teleconnection (PNA) Antarctic Oscillation Solar 11-Year Solar Cycle (Sunspots) Long-Term Solar Cycles (70-90, 500 years +) Variable Solar Irradiance

15. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in Ocean Currents Have Huge Effect on Climate

16. Arctic Oscillation Positive Phase Negative Phase In Negative Phase, cold air more likely to flow into Japan, the Eastern United States and Europe

17. Solar Activity Almost all of the energy that drives the climate comes from solar radiation.

18. The Effect of Aerosols Depending on type and distribution, aerosols can have either a warming or cooling effect.

19. Even Cosmic Rays Affect the Climate Reduced Flux of Cosmic Rays Contributes to Global Warming

20. Part 4 Is Anthropogenic Climate Change Real? • Powerful vested interests and agendas • Conflicting Scientific Claims

21. As Reported in the Washington Post • The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consul Ifft, at Bergen, Norway. Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers, he declared, all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone. Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met with as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm. Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared. Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts, which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds.

22. The Date of the Report? November 1922!

23. The Climate Is Always Changing The debate is about how much is from natural causes and how much is man-made and what can and should be done about it.

24. According to Al Gore and some members of the IPCC, we must take drastic action to save the planet! On the other hand, some scientists deny any significant, human-caused climate change. (DVD clips from documentary “Not Evil, Just Wrong: The True Cost of Global Warming Hysteria”)

25. How important really is CO2? Essentially all of the radiant energy that can be absorbed by CO2 is absorbed in the first 1000m. Increasing CO2 levels only increases absorption logarithmically.

26. Methane also important Greenhouse gas Much easier to reduce than CO2 Methane Sources: Rice paddies 22% Marshes 21% Cattle 15% Natural gas 9% Landfills 8%

27. Carbon Soot • Carbon soot is estimated to have 3 times the effect of CO2 on artic climate, and 80% of that is anthropogenic. • Himalayan glaciers have been retreating in recent years, but 90% of the cause is carbon soot and aerosols in the air.

28. Many areas depend on glacial melt for much of their water IPCC had to retract its 2007 claim that Himalayan glaciers would disappear by 2035

29. Part 5 Possible Solutions and Economic Implications • Role of CO2 greatly overestimated • Relative ease with which factors other than CO2 can be addressed • Cost of proposed “solutions” to economy • Huge opportunity to develop new technologies

30. Need for economic justice • Forcing large cuts in CO2 emissions will drastically increase energy costs • While it will affect everybody, the poor will suffer the most.

31. Human-centered Solutions • Helping people in developing countries recover their own environment. • Saving Himalayan glaciers by reducing soot in air: Clean cooking stoves.

32. Desertification in Africa and Central Asia • Getting out of the vicious cycle of desertification • Providing cooking stoves and fuel • Reforestation would provide a carbon sink

33. “Fertilizing” the Ocean • Sea plankton absorbs more CO2 than any other carbon sink • Sperm whale excrement is best fertilizer • Possibility of artificially adding iron to seawater

34. Opportunity For Japanese Leadership • Even without the issue of CO2 emissions, the age of fossil fuels is coming to an end. • Need for new technologies

35. Conclusions (1) • Global Warming (and cooling) is a naturally occurring cyclical phenomenon with a relatively small anthropogenic factor added on. • CO2 reduction is grossly overemphasized, and so we should use our remaining fossil fuel wisely for the economic wellbeing of all. • Efforts do need to be made to reduce CO2emissions where feasible, but also to increase CO2absorption, which is likely more effective.

36. Conclusions (2) • Opportunity for moral and technological contribution to solving manmade climate change • From standpoint of Christian ethics, solutions must give priority to human welfare • It is our responsibility to return to the principle that God has entrusted earth’s resources to us to manage wisely for human benefit