SEE Public Agenda Survey January-February 2002 Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network

1. SEE Public Agenda SurveyJanuary-February 2002Organized by International IDEA and SEEDS Network Main findings of the quantitative survey 14 March 2002

2. Objectives • The aim is to conduct a research of public agenda in nine countries and territories in South East Europe, namely Bosnia and Herzegovina - Federation BH, Bosnia and Herzegovina - Republika Srpska, Bulgaria, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Romania. • The purposes of this base line study of public agenda in the region are: • To gain information on people’s attitudes, fears and expectation in the main issues that concern their ongoing life and their future; • To compare the findings between countries and territories; • To draw the conclusions relevant for policy making and strategies for regional development and democratization; • To set up a database for a longer term public agenda tracking.

3. Public Agenda • In the current meaning: • Public = sum of persons entitled to vote (usually 18 years and over) • Public Agenda = Issues, fears and concerns regarding the state, society and personal position within them • PUBLIC AGENDA MAIN ISSUES: • Governing the state • Economic bases of the social and individual life • Violence, crime, personal security • Politics • Corruption • Environmental issues • International institutions • Domestic institutions

4. Public Agenda Tracking • A public opinion poll, conducted with the same questionnaire on independent national representative samples at regular intervals (usually 1-3 months) • Euro Barometer in Europe and associated countries (www.europa.eu.int) • BOP-in Romania (www.imas.ro) • SMMRI Omnibus • PULS Omnibus

5. Organisational structure • Financed by the Norwegian Foreign Affairs Ministry and International IDEA • Incepted and supported by International IDEA • Driven by local researchers and think tanks who have organized themselves as the South East Europe Democracy Support Network - SEEDS

6. List of research institutes • Research Area Institute Pop/mill Sample • Bulgaria VITOSHA 8.5 1,148 • B&H - Federation PULS 2.4 610 • B&H - R.Srpska SMMRI/B&H 1.5 1,034 • Croatia PULS 4.3 1,010 • Kosovo IS Pristina 2.2 1,017 • Macedonia SMMRI/Skopje 1.9 1,031 • Montenegro SMMRI 0.6 1,012 • Romania IMAS 22.5 1,553 • Serbia SMMRI 7.8 1,523

7. South Eastern Europe

8. OPTIMISM vs. PESSIMISM

9. Kosovo and Serbia show greatest optimism both in relation to one year ago and in the view of the future • Bulgaria seems to see the present and the future mostly in dark light

10. Right direction of the country

11. Personal economic situation: worse and better than one year ago worse

12. Personal economic situation: satisfaction with the current level satisfaction

13. Personal economic situation: one year to come

14. Personal economic situation : 5 year expectations

15. PUBLIC ISSUES

16. Public Agenda:National Issues • The list with national issues on the public agenda was drafted during the Oslo Meeting (May 2000), and checked during the qualitative phase. Almost all issues look to be important for the SEE public, with notable differences. • However a large gap between the political, intellectual and media elite - as they were captured during the qualitative phase - and the public are to be underlined. The elite is more focused on ethnic issues, historical disputes, and philosophical analysis, whilst the public is more concerned with unemployment, corruption, poverty, inflation and family income.

17. Unemployment Corruption Poverty Crime Inflation Family income Stability of the State Drug and alcohol abuse Jobs for our children My country’s acceptance into EU and/or NATO Legal system Ethnic conflicts Lack of morality Welfare system Inadequate bureaucracy Public Agenda Quantitative Measurement “There are many problems facing our country today. I'm going to hand you a card that lists some. Please pick and rank what you believe are the three most important issues”.

18. The three most important issues for SEE are: • unemployment, • poverty and • corruption.

19. Public Issues: Summary

20. Public Issues: Unemployment

21. Public Issues: Corruption

22. Public Issues: Poverty

23. Public Issues: Crime

24. Public Issues: Inflation

25. Public Issues: Family Income

26. PERSONAL FEARS

27. Public Agenda: Personal Fears • Personal fears (or potential threats to the personal life) are usually in the field of personal health, job security, future of children, pensions etc. When personal fears are almost the same as national issues, the public believe that their personal lives are profoundly affected by national policies. • That is the case in all SEE countries. “What do you fear the most in the present?” Open answer question-top of mind answer.

28. Personal Fears: Summary

29. Personal Fears: Poverty

30. Personal Fears: Unemployment

31. Personal Fears: Bad Political Situation

32. Personal Fears: War

33. Personal Fears: Crime

34. INSTITUTIONS

35. GENERAL TRUST IN INSTITUTIONS KOSOVO ROMANIA B&H - FEDERATION MONTENEGRO MACEDONIA CROATIA BULGARIA SERBIA B&H – REPUBLIC OF SRPSKA

36. TRUST IN DOMESTIC INSTITUTIONS

37. Most trusted institutions in SEE are the Church, Army and Universities • Parliaments, governments and courts are among the least trusted institutions

39. Trust in Institutions: Church

40. Trust in Institutions: Presidency

41. Trust in Institutions: Parliament

42. Trust in Institutions: Government

43. Trust in Institutions: Local Authorities

44. Trust in Institutions: Courts

45. Trust in Institutions: Police

46. Trust in Institutions: Army

47. Trust in Institutions: Trade Unions

48. Trust in Institutions: NGOs

49. Trust in Institutions: Universities

50. Trust in Institutions: Summary