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Lamar C.I.S.D.

Lamar C.I.S.D. Demographic Update November 19, 2014 Population and Survey Analysts 303 Anderson Street, College Station, TX 77840 www.pasademographics.com. Recent Clients (2007-2008). Frisco I.S.D. Galveston I.S.D. Goose Creek C.I.S.D. Hays C.I.S.D. Humble I.S.D. Katy I.S.D.

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Lamar C.I.S.D.

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  1. Lamar C.I.S.D. Demographic Update November 19, 2014 Population and Survey Analysts 303 Anderson Street, College Station, TX 77840 www.pasademographics.com

  2. Recent Clients (2007-2008) Frisco I.S.D. Galveston I.S.D. Goose Creek C.I.S.D. Hays C.I.S.D. Humble I.S.D. Katy I.S.D. Klein I.S.D. Lake Travis I.S.D. Leander I.S.D. Lewisville I.S.D. Lovejoy I.S.D. Manor I.S.D. Mansfield I.S.D. Midway I.S.D. Montgomery I.S.D. Northwest I.S.D. Richardson I.S.D. Spring I.S.D. Spring Hill I.S.D. Tyler I.S.D. Waller I.S.D. White House I.S.D. Allen I.S.D. Anahuac I.S.D. Angleton I.S.D. Bryan I.S.D. Conroe I.S.D. Crosby I.S.D. Dallas I.S.D. Dayton I.S.D. DeSoto I.S.D. Duncanville I.S.D. Elgin I.S.D.

  3. Population & Survey Analysts Firm Overview Demographic Approach for L.C.I.S.D. Lamar C.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Employment Trends (Leading Indicators) Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household per Subdivision Current Student Population Characteristics Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning

  4. Section A: Assess Current Student Population • Generate ArcGIS Map of the District • Geo-Code Every Student • Analyze Student Population Characteristics by • Planning Unit (ethnicity, econ. disadvantaged) • Analyze Recent Changes in Student Population • by Planning Unit (Regeneration, etc.)

  5. Section B: Project Future Student Enrollment • Prepare Projections of New Housing per Year • per Subdivision • Calculate the Ratio of Students per Household • for each Subdivision • Generate Projections of Student Population • by Planning Unit for Ten Year Projection Period

  6. Section C: Long Range Planning • Relate Student Projections to Current Facility • Capacities • Develop Long-Range Plan for the Siting and • Timing of New Facilities • Options for New Attendance Zones • Real-Time Planning with Committees • Prepare Comprehensive Report and Present • Findings to School Board

  7. Population & Survey Analysts Firm Overview Demographic Approach for L.C.I.S.D. Lamar C.I.S.D. Student Trends Employment Trends (Leading Indicators) Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household per Subdivision Current Student Population Characteristics Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning

  8. Red Maps

  9. Percentage Growth Based on Total Enrollment: 2006-07 All Districts Larger that 10,000 Students

  10. Econ Disadv. Map

  11. Demographic Characteristics of Surrounding Districts

  12. TAKS map

  13. KN vs. Births chart

  14. Historical Growth Trends

  15. Comparison of KN and 5th Grade by Attendance Zone Green = Growth Yellow = Decline

  16. Census Maps 0-4

  17. Private School Analysis

  18. Population & Survey Analysts Firm Overview Demographic Approach for L.C.I.S.D. Lamar C.I.S.D. Student Trends Employment Trends (Leading Indicators) Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Current Student Population Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning

  19. Annual Employment Trends

  20. Annual Employment Trends

  21. Shift-Share Analysis of Employment Trends

  22. Population & Survey Analysts Firm Overview Demographic Approach for L.C.I.S.D. Lamar C.I.S.D. Student Trends Employment Trends (Leading Indicators) Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household per Subdivision Current Student Population Characteristics Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning

  23. Municipalities Map

  24. New Housing Maps

  25. New Housing Maps

  26. New Housing Maps

  27. New Housing Maps

  28. Most Active Developments

  29. Projected New Housing Occupancies: 2008 – 2017

  30. Population & Survey Analysts Firm Overview Demographic Approach for L.C.I.S.D. Lamar C.I.S.D. Student Trends Employment Trends (Leading Indicators) Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household per Subdivision Current Student Population Characteristics Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning

  31. Highest Ratios of Students per Household

  32. Lowest Ratios of Students per Household

  33. Highest Ratios of Students per Occupied Apartment Unit

  34. Lowest Ratios of Students per Occupied Apartment Unit

  35. Population & Survey Analysts Firm Overview Demographic Approach for L.C.I.S.D. Lamar I.S.D. Student Trends Employment Trends (Leading Indicators) Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household per Subdivision Current Student Population Characteristics Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning

  36. Aggregation maps by PU

  37. Aggregation maps by High School Zone

  38. Gains & Losses in Student Population The majority of the losses this past year are due to the aging out of students, but also changed perceptions in a few neighborhoods and other factors: • Primary PU’s to receive loss are in inner-city Rosenberg – including subdivisions south of Hwy 59 in 24D, 24F, 31, 32B (by Ray/Travis), and 36B and 37 (both west of Hwy 36); • In and near the Tara subdivision north of FM 762; • Finally, west of FM 723 in PU’s 4 (where Bella Vista and Foster Crossing subdivisions are located) and in 8A, which is becoming more industrial.

  39. Gains & Losses in Student Population Key new subdivisions caused tremendous increases in students this past year: • Lakemont, Lost Creek, and Parkway Lakes in PU 6 (337 added students); • Summer Lakes, River’s Run, Bonbrook and scattered other new homes in PU 44B (207 added students); • Westheimer Lakes in PU 5A (131 added students); • River’s Edge in PU 11C (80 new students); • Long Meadow Farms in PU 5E (69 new students); • The last developing portion of Greatwood(The Forest) in PU 47A (68 added students).

  40. Gains & Losses in Student Population In a separate analysis, the “free and reduced lunch” program students were declining in several locations: • West of Hwy 36 and south of Spur 529 there were substantial losses in PU’s 38 & 39B, as well as 8A; • In the upside-down “U” of the river by Richmond State School, there were substantial losses in PU’s 12A, 13C, 13B, 10 B (Riverwood Village), and also 19 (south of Hwy 90A) and 17B just east of FM 359 and north of Hwy 90A; • Finally, to the north of the river and west of FM 723, PU’s 2A, 2B, 3 and 4 have all lost student population, including the areas of Weston Lakes and the western portion of the Huggins Elementary zone.

  41. Gains & Losses in Student Population There were gains in “free and reduced lunch” program students, mainly in new entry-level subdivisions & apartments: • Mainly south of HWY 59 in PU’s 41A, 41C, 43A, 43B, 44B, and 44E; • In Lost Creek and Parkway Lakes, and to some extent, the Lakemont subdivisions; • In Westheimer Lakes; • In inner-city Rosenberg locations, including apartment locations and “downtown” Rosenberg, east of FM 723; • Some losses in the City of Richmond in the newer River Park West and Canyon Gate subdivisions.

  42. Population & Survey Analysts Firm Overview Demographic Approach for L.C.I.S.D. Lamar C.I.S.D. Student Trends Employment Trends (Leading Indicators) Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household per Subdivision Current Student Population Characteristics Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning

  43. Most-Likely Scenario:Assumptions • Interest rates do not increase at all in the next two to three years • Continued availability of mortgages existing, older housing and of new homes (based on first quarter 2008 rates) • Iraq and other global concerns do not accelerate • A stable percent of immigrants and of in-migrants entering Texas • Consumer and business spending remains at no less than 5% reduction relative to last year

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