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Country-specific case studies: results and recommendations for future research

Country-specific case studies: results and recommendations for future research. Ilyin I., Travnikov O., Varygina M. EMEP/MSC-E. 13 th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta. Objectives and progress of case studies for selected countries.

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Country-specific case studies: results and recommendations for future research

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  1. Country-specific case studies: results and recommendations for future research Ilyin I., Travnikov O., Varygina M. EMEP/MSC-E 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  2. Objectives and progress of case studies for selected countries Objective:Analysis of factors affecting quality of the assessment of HM pollution levels with fine resolution (5x5km or 10x10km) Active participants:Croatia, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands (as of April 2012) Purpose of the presentation is to demonstrate: • Progress achieved in country-specific research • Benefits for countries-participants • Benefits for EMEP 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  3. Information provided by countries All three countries: - Emission with fine resolution - National monitoring data Additionally, the Czech Republic and Croatia: - National meteorological observations - Concentrations of HMs in soils - Information on LPS - . . . . 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  4. Country-specific assessment for three countries Deposition to participating countries The Netherlands, Pb, 5x5 km The Czech Republic, Cd, 5x5 km Croatia, Pb, 10x10 km Contributions from external sources 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  5. Progress of pollution assessment for Croatia (Pb, 2007) Deposition of Pb to Croatia in 2007 50 x 50 km 10 x 10 km 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  6. Smaller-scale effects derived from modelling with fine (10x10 km) resolution Altitude, a.s.l Annual precipitation, mm Deposition, kg/km2/y • The use of finer resolution for country-specific assessment allows to reproduce smaller-scale effects 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  7. Progress of pollution assessment for Croatia (Pb, 2007) Deposition of Pb to Croatia in 2007 50 x 50 km 10 x 10 km 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  8. Progress of pollution assessment for Croatia (Pb, 2007) Pb emission data, 2007 50 x 50 km 10 x 10 km Croatia: 10x10 km, provided by the country Other EMEP countries: EMEP, 50x50 km 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  9. Annual precipitation in Croatia, 2007 50 x 50 km 10 x 10 km • Refinement of spatial resolution leads to decline of Pb deposition in the south-eastern part of Croatia due to refinement of emissions and changes in annual precipitation fields 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  10. National vs. transboundary deposition in Croatia Main countries-contributors to deposition of Pb to Croatia, 2007 Contribution of external sources to deposition in Croatia 10 x 10 km 50 x 50 km 10 x 10 km 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  11. Total deposition of Pb to Zagreb region, 10x10 km Spatially resolved information for administrative regions Example: Zagreb, Croatia Contribution of national and external sources to Croatia as a whole to Zagreb region 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  12. Concluding remarks (Croatia): • Finer resolution modelling is highly important for counties with relatively small territory and complex terrain because: • Spatial distribution of pollution levels is more detailed • Small-scale effects are reproduced better (e.g., orographic precipitation, deposition along state borders) • It is possible to assess transboundary pollution for both the entire country and its administrative regions 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  13. Progress of pollution assessment for the Netherlands (Pb, 2007) Pb emission data, 2007 ~ 60% of national Pb emission (Corus steel production) 50 x 50 km 5 x 5 km Netherlands: 5x5 km, provided by the country Other EMEP countries: EMEP, 50x50 km 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  14. Modelled vs. observed air concentrations of Pb at stations in the Netherlands and Belgium Annual mean air concentrations of Pb, 2007 5 x 5 km 50 x 50 km Netherlands: 5 stations (3 EMEP stations) Belgium: 1 EMEP station 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  15. Modelled vs. observed air concentrations of Pb at stations in the Netherlands and Belgium Normalized Root Mean Square Error Modelled and observed annual-mean concentrations • Transition to modelling with finer spatial resolution improves agreement between modelled and measured levels 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  16. Monthly mean modeled and observed Pb air concentrations at the Dutch stations 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  17. Contribution of anthropogenic sources and wind re-suspension to modelled Pb (station Vlaardingen) • Work on wind re-suspension scheme will continue 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  18. Progress of pollution assessment for the Netherlands (Pb, 2007) Calculated total deposition of Pb 50 x 50 km 5 x 5 km 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  19. Application of modelling with fine resolution for evaluation of the effects Exceedance = Deposition - Critical Load Exceedance Critical load Deposition flux X 50 km • Pattern of critical loads exceedances can change as spatial resolution increases 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  20. Application of modelling with fine resolution for evaluation of the effects Difference between deposition of Pb to the Netherlands with 5-km and 50-km resolution Fraction of the country’s area with difference between 5-km and 50-km deposition 0 – 0.2 Deposition difference (D5km – D50 km) In ~ 60% of country D5km > D50km 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  21. Concluding remarks (the Netherlands): • Transition to finer resolution improves agreement between modelled and observed pollution levels • Work on HM wind re-suspension will be continued • Refinement of deposition levels could change the spatial pattern of critical load exceedances

  22. Additional information for a country derived from country-specific studies (example for the Czech Republic) Maps of concentrations and deposition Deposition from individual regions Source-receptor matrices for regions 5x5 km 5x5 km Pollution levels from individual large point sources Contributions of emission source categories 5x5 km 5x5 km 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  23. Additional information for the Czech Republic Contribution of source categories to deposition of Cd to regions of the Czech Republic Cd deposition in CZ, 5x5 km 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  24. Conclusions • Emissions withfine spatial resolution improve pollution assessment at national scale. • Country-specific studies allow to involve national monitoring networks. It increases reliability of model verification and pollution assessment in a country • Transition to finer resolution results to: • Improvement of agreement between modelled and observed pollution levels • More detailed spatial variability of country’s pollution levels • Possible changes of pattern of critical loads exceedances compared to modelling with coarser (50x50 km) resolution • Additional country-specificinformation (pollution budget for regions, pollution from individual sources, etc…) can be produced in close cooperation with national experts 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  25. Conclusions (cont..) • Country-specific case studies will be continued in 2013, focusing on the following items: • Analysis of wet scavenging processes • Further development of wind re-suspension parameterization • Continue assessment of pollution levels in the Netherlands • Finalization of country-specific activity for Croatia 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  26. Modelled Cd air concentrations in the Czech Republic - priority monitoring stations - other monitoring stations 50x50 km 5x5 km • 72 national stations (2 EMEP) • 8 priority stations selected for comparison 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  27. Improvement due to finer resolution Comparison of modelled and observed air concentrations of Cd for the Czech Republic 275 Transition to finer resolution leads to better agreement between modelled and measured air concentrations 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  28. Detailed country-specific information Additional country-specific information • Spatial distribution of pollution levels in country’s administrative regions • Source-receptor relationships for individual administrative regions • Pollution levels from emission source categories, from individual point sources, etc… This information can be prepared by a country independently using MSCE-HM model and pre-processed meteorological data 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  29. Improvement of the model performance due to modification of wind re-suspension parameterization Modelled vs. observed concentrations of Pb in air Statistical indices for 6 stations Mean concentrations of Pb at stations in the Netherlands and Belgium - For most of stations modelling results improved due to update of HM wind re-suspension scheme 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  30. Improvement due to updated re-suspension Contribution of wind re-suspension components to pollution levels of Pb in the selected countries (50 x 50 km) - Further analysis / investigation of wind re-suspension components is needed, e.g., from urban, bare lands and sea surfaces 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  31. Detailed country-specific information National vs. transboundary deposition in countries Czech Republic Croatia Netherlands 50 x50 km Finer resolution 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  32. Detailed country-specific information Benefits for EMEP due to refinement of spatial resolution Deposition to a country Deposition from a country Contribution of external sources 50x50 km 10x10 km - Transition to grid with finer resolution allows to reproduce spatial variability of country’s pollution levels in more detail 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  33. Progress of pollution assessment for the Croatia (Pb, 2007) Country-specific information on HMs reported annually (50x50 km): Contribution of external sources Deposition to a country Deposition from a country Can country-specific analysis add more information? 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  34. Monthly mean modeled and observed Pb air concentrations at the Dutch stations 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  35. National vs. transboundary deposition in Croatia 50 x 50 km 10 x 10 km Main countries-contributors to deposition of Pb to Croatia, 2007 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

  36. Contribution of transboundary deposition to a country Contribution of external sources to deposition in Croatia 10 x 10 km 50 x 50 km 13th TFMM meeting, April 2012, Gozo, Malta

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