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Whose economy? Scotland in Northern Europe: balancing dynamic economies with greater social equality . Whose Economy? Poverty and Inequality. Whose Economy? Oxfam/UWS seminar series.
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Whose economy? Scotland in Northern Europe: balancing dynamic economies with greater social equality
Whose Economy? Oxfam/UWS seminar series • Why persistent poverty exists alongside high economic prosperity, leading to significant inequalities in income and wealth, and in life chances and lifestyles, between individuals and communities. Why, despite decades of economic growth, regeneration and anti-poverty policies, many Scots face a life characterised by high mortality, economic inactivity, mental and physical ill-health, poor educational attainment, and increasing exclusion. • Conclusion: Our Economy, A Whose Economy Seminar Paper, June 2011,
Why do we have less poverty than the United States, but much more than Norway, Sweden and Denmark? The reasons lie very much more in the distribution systems of the respective countries than in the personal behaviour of people in poverty. Why some affluent Western democracies maintain substantial poverty and others are more egalitarian and accomplish low levels of poverty is mainly due to “the generosity of the welfare state”. Adrian Sinfield, Whose welfare state now?, in Whose Economy?, http://policy-practice.oxfam.org.uk/publications/download?Id=436761&dl=http://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/oxfam/bitstream/10546/188809/5/dp-whose-economy-papers-complete-series-010911-en.pdf
Recent quote • The prime minister said: “there are countries in Europe, small countries that make it on their own, but ... we are better off, we are stronger together, we're fairer together, we're richer together”. • So must be able to measure strength, fairness, richness and so compare. And, given what we’ve heard here already this morning, can we identify an even better way? • Are there countries that are more resilient, robust, competitive [stronger], more equal with less poverty, greater gender equality and a progressive tax/welfare system [fairer] and more prosperous [richer]?
Scotland's long-term GDP growth performance (1975-2005) Source: Eurostat, OECD, Scottish Government
Income inequality in selected OECD countries Source: OECD (2008), Growing Unequal? Income Distribution and Poverty in OECD Countries.
TU Membership Density (2008) over 90% in Finland; 80%–89% in Belgium and Sweden; 70%–79% in Denmark and Norway; 60%–69% in Italy; 50%–59% in Cyprus, Luxembourg and Malta; 40%–49% in Romania; 30%–39% in Austria, Ireland and Slovenia; 20%–29% in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Greece, Hungary, the Netherlands, Portugal and the UK; 10%–19% in Latvia, Poland, Slovakia and Spain; below 10% in Estonia and Lithuania. Higher among women than among men in half of the 20 countries examined – Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, Slovenia and Sweden
Gender equality • Proportion in Parliament • Proportion on Company Boards • CEOs • Childcare • Etc.
The Global Gender Gap Index 2010 rankings: Comparisons with 2009, 2008, 2007 and 2006
Press Freedom Index 2011/2012, Reporters without Borders http://en.rsf.org/spip.php?page=classement&id_rubrique=1043
The Global Competitiveness Index 2011–2012 rankings and 2010–2011 comparisons World Economic Forum (2011) The Global Competitiveness Report 2011-2012, http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GCR_Report_2011-12.pdf
Entrepreneurial activity rates -Scotland, UK, Arc of Prosperity countries, 2000 to 2007
R&D investments by ICT Scoreboard firms per country of registered headquarters in theEU, in millions of € (2005-2008)
ICT priority patent applications by EU Member State, 2000 and 2007
Number of ICT and non-ICT patent applications per million inhabitants, by EU MemberState, 2007
EU Member States’ innovation performance Innovation leaders: Denmark, Finland, Germany, Sweden all show a performance well above that of the EU27 average
Happiness Once again, Norwegians rank among the happiest people in the world, behind only their fellow Nordic neighbours in Denmark and Finland. The latest Gallup World Poll indicates that the Nordic countries, with their social welfare states and relative affluence, must be doing something right. Only the people of Iceland were missing when four out of the five Nordic countries grabbed the top spots on the Gallup World Poll’s list. Sweden ranked just after Norway in a tie for fourth place . Forbes Magazine, from OECD report
Place In Norway, also considered by the United Nations to be the world’s best place to live, fully 69 percent of the population were said to be thriving while none of the respondents was “suffering.” But 31 percent were considered to be “struggling,” compared to 30 percent in Sweden, even though the economy in Sweden is considered to be weaker than Norway’s.
‘Happiest countries in the world’ [OECD plus economic stability] 10. Austria 9. Israel 8. Finland 7. Switzerland 6. Sweden5. The Netherlands 4. Australia3. Norway 2. Canada 1. Denmark
Human Development Report 2011 - Sustainability and Equity: A Better Future for All Human Development Index
The Road to a Better Place? • Can we join this group – that is move into the high income, high wealth, sustainable, low inequality, high opportunity, coherent economy and society?
The Arc of Prosperitybecomes • ‘the arc of insolvency’ • ‘the arc of darkness’ • ‘the arc of delusion’ “Only prudent Norway is holding its head above water”. • Associated Press: “Iceland teeters on the brink of bankruptcy”• International Herald Tribune: “Iceland is all but officially bankrupt”• Forbes: “Iceland teeters on bankruptcy”• New York Times: “Iceland, in financial collapse...”
Financial crisis • Surely small countries cannot cope ~ Nordic model(s) ‘not sustainable’ • Better together • Protection • Support • Recovery
Banking crises IMF Report: During the past twenty years we have witnessed several major crises throughout the financial world. The IMF study of banking crises around the world reveals that 133 countries experienced significant banking sector problems at some stage during the years 1980-1995. The amount of public expenditure needed for resolving the crises and reviving banking sector activity has been remarkable in all countries. According to the above-mentioned IMF study, in some 25% of the crises, the costs exceeded 10% of GNP. The figures from the Nordic countries show that taxpayers' costs have ranged from 3% (Norway) to 8% (Finland) of GNP. Considering that not only the government budget but the whole economy suffers from such a crisis, it is understandable that the countries around the world, together with international organisations, have joined forces to determine the most efficient ways to avoid systemic financial crises.
“The arc of prosperity become the arc of insolvency” Sweden and Norway had banking crises in the early Nineties. The Scandinavian banks collapsed after ... a credit and property bubble in the 1980s that burst just like ours. The Norwegian government moved quickly, driving down the shares of the banks to zero, nationalising many and taking an equity stake in the rest. It restructured and recapitalised the banks and then sold them off, so that the Norwegian taxpayers didn’t lose and the bankers didn’t get bailed out. http://iainmacwhirter2.blogspot.com/2008/10/arc-of-prosperity-become-arc-of.html
Stopping a Financial Crisis, the Swedish Way A banking system in crisis after the collapse of a housing bubble. An economy hemorrhaging jobs. A market-oriented government struggling to stem the panic. . banking system was, for all practical purposes, insolvent. … [but 3 years later, Sweden back on track] But the final cost to Sweden ended up being less than 2 percent of its G.D.P. Some officials say they believe it was closer to zero, [with more returns to come]. However, the reforms enacted during the 1990s seem to have created a model in which extensive welfare benefits can be maintained in a global economy. NY Times
