Applying the TRIAD , a new ERA tool: case study in Phu Long commune , Hai Phong , Vietnam

1. Partner-Driven cooperation Sweden-Vietnam Applying the TRIAD, a new ERA tool:case study in Phu Long commune,HaiPhong, Vietnam Peter Bruce 1, ThânThịHiền2, NguyễnThịTuyếtLan3, NguyễnThị Thu 4, Jonas Gunnarsson 1 Method, results, challenges and recommendations 1 DEEP, Stockholm University, 2 MCD, 3 HACEM, 4 IMER

2. Presentation outline • ERA: Introduction • TRIAD: Method • Phu Long: Case study • Integrated Risk: Calculations • Lessons learned & recommendations

3. A world under increasing anthropogenic pressure (pollution, overfishing, climate change)

4. Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) A new multi-disciplinary decision support system that bridges scientistspolicymakers and stakeholders

5. Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment (EPA 1992) Source identification & problem formulation Exposure and Effect Assessment Risk Analysis Management & remediation

6. Stakeholders Source identification & problem formulation Conceptual model Exposure and Effect Assessment Risk and uncertainty analyses Management & remediation

7. Legal frameworkEnvironmental Impact assessment (EIA) versusEcological Risk Assessment (ERA) EIA: describes the effects of a planned activity (i.e. road construction…) will have on the environment and human health. EIA in Sweden and in the EU: regulated by law, requires an application to the EPA including: - Chemicals involved, ranked and classified according to their toxicity - Risk Assessment: ERA report on chemicals and environmental impact

8. The “ TRIAD “ A weight of evidence method based on 3 independent ‘lines of evidence’ (LOE) Triad: “Three LOEs” EachLOE = 1 leg of the TRIAD Reference : LIBERATION EU project, 2006. RIVM Report nr 711 701 047

9. Stakeholders Source identification & problem formulation Conceptual model Exposure and Effect Assessment Risk Analysis Management & remediation

10. The initialTRIAD: just + and - Combinedevaluationof data from 3 independent lines of evidence, providesa methodtoreduceuncertainties(Peter Chapman) Site-specific ERA: The TRIAD approach and multi-criteria decision analysis

11. The revisedTRIAD • Calculatesrisk values, insteadof + and – • Allowstocalculateuncertainties, associatedwith risk values • Uses a tiered approach: morecost-efficient

12. Case study in the Phu Long Commune

13. CAT BA BIOSPHERE RESERVE AREA Cat Ba Island The study area on Phu Long commune, Cat Hai district, Hai Phong city

14. PhuLong Commune, Cat Ba Biosphere Reserve, HaiPhong city • Coastal commune (525 households) • Mangroves ecosystems (700ha) • Main livelihoods: fisheries and aquaculture

15. Research questions: • Threats: anthropogenic wastes and economic loss (eg loss of income when yields from aquaculture and fishery). • What are the risksto mangrove ecosystems, aquaculture and fishery in PhuLong?

16. Project objectives: • Provide a cost-effective method on how to estimate environmental risks and their uncertainties • Help managers take a decision based on “best available science”

17. Method: Integrative Ecological Risk Assessment using the TRIAD • TRIAD: • Collect data from 3 lines of evidence (socio-economic, Ecology, Physico-chemistry) • Scale the results from 0-1 • Calculate integrated environmental risk values and their uncertainties Socio-economic MCD Physical-chemistry HACEM Ecology IMER

18. Field sites in Phu Long 3 sites withvaryingtypesofaquacultureand other pollution (A), (B) (C) and a reference site (no aquaculture) (D)

19. IMER: Responsible for Ecologic data, i.e. Toxicity testing of water, and taxonomy analyses

20. Collection of: • Zooplankton • Phytoplankton • Benthic fauna • During dry and wet season 2012 • See Poster by IMER

21. HACEMresponsible for the chemical data MCDresponsible for socio-economic data

22. HACEM IMER MCD

23. Integrated Risk calculations Scaling of data from each LOE 0-1 effect scale • Chemical data: • Calculation of toxicpressures(TP) bycomparingconcentrationstoenvironmentalquality criteria • Andscalefrom 0-1

24. Integrated Risk calculations Scaling of data from each LOE 0-1 effect scale • Biological data: • Scalingusing the BiologicalQuality index (integrates: total taxa, diversity, totalabundanceandcompareswithreference site).

25. Integrated Risk calculations Scaling of data from each LOE 0-1 effect scale • Socio-economic data: • Data from interview studies is scaledfrom 0-1 using the percentage scalingmethod

26. Determination of risk class limits: Discussionwithstake-holdersduring the planning phasealready, Usually eg: >0,5 high risk > 0,2 Medium risk < 0,2 Low risk

27. >0,5 high risk >0,2 Medium risk <0,2 Low risk

28. >0,5 high risk >0,2 Medium risk <0,2 Low risk

29. >0,5 high risk >0,2 Medium risk <0,2 Low risk

30. Integrated LOE Medium risk for site A and B with low uncertainties Low risk for site C with higher uncertainty Low risk for Phu Long in general with a high uncertainty >0,5 high risk >0,2 Medium risk <0,2 Low risk

31. The risks differ highly between sites and seasons The coliform risks has been calculated using the toxic pressure (TP) calculation method >0,5 high risk >0,2 Medium risk

32. The risks differs highly between seasons and sites The risks for zooplankton was calculated using the Biological quality Index (BQX) >0,5 high risk >0,2 Medium risk

33. After scaling, additional need of weighing the data Risk to households’ due to fishery loss needs to be weighed further to account for economy.

34. Division into TIERS: TIER 1

35. TIER 2

36. TIER 3

39. LachHuyenthe new harbor in Haiphong City Source: tinmoi.vn

40. Lessons learned The ERA -TRIAD method was successfully applied for the 1st time in Vietnam The TRIAD allows to present all the data as tabulated risk values with associated uncertainties. The method uses a step-wise approach i.e. (Tiers 1, 2, 3) giving a highly cost effective method (i.e. after each Tier the risks and uncertainties are evaluated and a decision is taken to stop the ERA or to conduct a more detailed ERA and collect more data.

41. CHALLENGES Natural / man-made effects: Account for seasonal and temporal variability and separate it from human actions. The Reference: The ERA- TRIAD can only be made if we can compare with good references. Monitoring: Need to establish monitoring programs in reference areas, e.g in the Biosphere reserves. Need for long-time data series. Coordination: Need for a strong coordination between all stake-holders. Challenges with the scaling and weighing of socio-economic data

42. RECOMMENDATIONS The ERA-TRIAD tool is a decision support system, it provides a cost-efficient method on how to calculate environmental risks and their uncertainties and present data in a way useful for management. (i) Finalize and supplement more ERA case studies at different scales (ii) Further ERA/TRIAD training in scaling methods, ecology, bio-statistics (iii) Develop well-designed monitoring programs especially in the reference sites (iv) Facilitate ERA guidelines and integration in the relevant policies (such as EIA, biodiversity conservation planning)