The Age Old Question

1. The Age Old Question

2. Which is the bigger problem?

3. Which is the bigger problem?

4. Will unchecked population growth destroy a country? – Take a look at these 3 cities

5. Will unchecked population growth destroy a country? – Did these places survive?

6. Will unchecked population growth destroy a country? - or was it more like thrive?

7. Malthus • 1798 – An Essay on the Principles of Population: warned the world’s population was increasing exponentially and food supplies were growing linearly • Therefore, the population was outgrow food.

8. Neo-Malthusians • Malthus was wrong – He did not account for new farming techniques and food preservation. • Neo-Malthusians believe • overpopulation is a problem which must be addressed • Rapid population growth is a serous diversion of scarce resources • Governments should sponsor programs to reduce birth rates • So Malthus is only sort-of wrong?

9. Eugenics Population Policies • Designed to favor one racial or cultural sector • Nazi Germany • United States of America – NC • Was not about controlling the quantity of people, but the quality of people

10. Cornucopians • 1980s American Economists believe • Population growth is a stimulus to development • Technology has increased the carrying capacity • Boserup Thesis – • Population increases necessitate increased inputs of labor and technology to compensate for reduced yields

11. Malthus & Neo-Malthusians Encourage family planning Overpopulation is a problem Cornucopians & Boserup Human ingenuity & technology will increase carrying capacity Overpopulation is not a problem Anti-Natalist vs Pro-Natalist

12. Which is the bigger problem? It depends on the country?

13. Restrictive Policies • Aka Anti-natalists – encourage family planning (birth control) • China (starting 1971) • Bolivia • Vietnam • Ethiopia • Singapore • Malaysia • Bangladesh – TFR: 1981 – 6, 2000 – 2.9 • Thailand – TFR: 1969 – 6.5, 2005 – 1.7

14. Expansive Policies • Also known as pro-natalists – encourage large families • Nazi Germany • Soviet Union • Mao’s China • Ceausescu’s Romania • People’s Republic of Albania • Bulgaria • Mongolia • Some countries awarding medals for Mothers of 4, or 5, or 10, etc.

15. Expansive Policies • Russia – • Sept. 12 Conception Day in Ulyanovsk Province • Sweden – • 1980s – couples with small children received tax incentives, job leaves, work flexibility for 8 years • Early 1990s – mini baby boom • However, in mid-1990s the economy slowed and so did the baby boom

16. China • Still growing at about 7 million a year • But India is expected to pass China in 2025 • Population: both Greatest Asset and Liability • Several of China’s demographic traits are similar to those of developed countries

17. China Compared to the US Source: PRB, 2009 ChinaUS Total pop (mid-2009) 1,331.4 306.8 Density (pop/mi2) 360 83 Birth rate 12 14 Death rate 7 8 TFR 1.6 2.1 Infant mortality 21 6.6 Life expectancy m. 71, f. 75 m.75, f.80 % Urban 46 79 % of pop > 65 yrs 8 13 Per capita GNI ppp $6,020 $46,970

19. China's Birth Control Policy: More than “One Couple, One Child”

20. Pre-Policy Traditional culture values large families In the early 1950s under the rule of Mao Zedong birth control policies were condemned. Mao said that controlling the population was “a way of slaughtering the Chinese people without drawing blood.” “…[the people] are the most precious of all categories of capital.”

21. Later, Longer, Fewer A campaign launched in 1971 Delayed marriage/childbirth, spacing births at 5-year intervals, and fewer children per couple Contraceptives widely distributed, free of charge Require government permission to have children Family Planning Committees at all levels of governments “Birth control nannies” Intrusive questions

22. “One Couple, One Child” Adopted in 1979 The harshest birth control policy in the world? Couples are asked to pledge to having only one child

23. Incentives Free prenatal care Many rewards (mainly to urban residents): larger homes, larger salaries and promotions. Better, often free education for the only children. Paid maternity leave, 3-6 months, or longer The government generally pays for the birth control costs.

24. Consequences of Violation The official sanction is a fine, but many times much more harsh actions are taken. Sometimes couples are demoted or fired from their jobs. Those having 2nd child cannot register them and therefore they do not legally exist.

25. Many exceptions for second child have been introduced since 1984 Examples: Both members of the couple are only children First child is disabled For rural residents, if first child is a girl Remarried couples Minority couples

26. The Changing Demographic Landscapes Decline in Fertility A Rapid Demographic Transition Aging A Skewed Sex Ratio Large-scale Internal Migration esp. rural-urban migration

27. Decline in Birth Rates TFR: 1971: 5.44 2009: 1.6 Below replacement level since 1992 Well below 1.0 in large cities (Beijing, Shanghai, etc.) Birth rate: 1970: 33.43‰ 2009: 12.13‰ Natural growth: 1970: 25.83‰ 2009: 5.05‰ Shanghai: negative growth 17 years in a row so far Significantly lowered pop growth 1971-2009: 400 million fewer people were born because of family planning ??

28. Population aging % 65 yrs or older: 2000: 6% 2009: 8% Elderly growing at 3.2% each year May reach 10% at 2015, and 20% at 2035 The median age is on pace to move from the current 32 years to 44 years by 2040.

29. How many missing girls are there in the under 20 categories ?

30. Skewed Sex Ratio Currently at 119:100 3 Main Reasons: Son preference Use of prenatal sex-detecting technology Declining fertility In 2020, 30-40 million more young men than women Social repercussions “Demographic time bomb”

31. The “Care for Girls” Program Launched in 2003 Changing Son Preference?

32. Urbanization Level

40. Iran: -Anti-natalist or pro-natalist ? http://www1.istockphoto.com/file_thumbview_approve/398959/2/istockphoto_398959_iran.jpg

41. 1967 – first anti-natalist policy 1979 – pro-natalist 1988 – anti-natalist 2006 – pro-natalist ?

42. Iran Ayatollah Khomeini • 1967: Start of family planning • Accelerating economic growth • 1979: start of Islamic Revolution • promotion of contraception by health officials banned • procreation to bolster the ranks of “soldiers for Islam” (8 year war with Iraq)

43. Khomeini’s pro-natalist policy resulted in a growth rate of 3.2 % Total fertility rate rose to 7

44. Iran • 1988: Khomeini reconsidered his stance due to: • faltering economy • severe unemployment • overcrowded & polluted cities • 1988 – 2001: national family planning program was revived • encouraged women to wait 3 – 4 years between children • discouraged childbearing for those < 18 and > 35 • limit family size to 3 children by restricting maternity leave • government controlled media promoted family planning • investment in literacy (between 1970 & 2001) • males (48% – 84%) • females (25% - 70%)** • Total fertility rate dropped < 3 (expected to be 2 by 2010)

45. Iran

46. Iran • 2006 • "It is said that two children is enough. I oppose this,” President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told legislators. • "Our country has a lot of capacities. It even has the capacity for 120 million people.“ • reduction in working hours for women to allow • for more child bearing & rearing

47. Quebec - Pro-natalist 1950’s - one of the highest Fertility Rates in the developed world (Catholic & rural) 1987 - FR of 1.4 (1.7 Canada) & Quebec’s share of Canadian population was decreasing

48. 1987 • 1st set of incentives • $500 for each of 1st 2 children • $3000 for each subsequent child • child care facilities improved & expanded • tax free family allowance if 2 or more children • interest free housing loans (up to $7000)

49. 1992 • 2nd set of incentives • $500 for 1st child • $1000 for 2nd child • $6000 for each subsequent child • other benefits remained the same 1997 Program ended after 10 yrs. of minimal success

50. 2003 election Parti Quebecois’ platform involved population expansion Bernard Landry Couples who have a baby within 5 years of finishing university will get 1/2 their student loan paid off.