Holding Moscow Hostage:

1. Response to Terrorism during the Putin Presidency Holding Moscow Hostage: Anna Weisfeiler Harvard University 68th Midwest Political Science Association National ConferenceApril 23, 2009 Chicago, IL

2. Research Question • Has the development of Russian national security policy, vis-à-vis terrorism, been influenced by major terrorists attacks • Has the Russian response to hostage situations evolved over time, or has it been variations on the same response? • Policy level • Tactical level

3. Cases • Moscow Dubrovka Theater Crisis (Oct 2002) • (This case is sometimes also known as Nord-Ost) • Beslan School Crisis (Sept 2004)

4. Case 1: Dubrova – Attack • 10/23: 50 armed men & women storm a Moscow theater during a performance of Nord-Ost. 700-900 people are inside the theater. • 10/24-25 Unsuccessful negotiations led by various prominent Russian figures • 10/26 Early morning raid led by Russian Federal Forces ends crisis, all hostage-takers are killed, 129 hostages die of complications.

5. Case 1: Dubrova – Attack Demands: • Immediate and unconditional withdrawal of Russian forces from Chechnya (within a week) • Immediate termination of use of artillery and the Air Force in Chechnya • The halt of all zachistki (mop-up) operations • Putin publicly declare that he was striving to stop the war in Chechnya

6. Case 1: Dubrova – Response • Initial reports came from inside the theater • 10/24: offered the hostage-takers safe-passage to any third country • 10/25: FBS offered to spare the lives of the hostage-takers if all hostages are released • 10/26: Early morning raid • All hostage-takers killed • no antidote is provided (Gas unknown) • victims were taken to undisclosed locations(hospitals)

7. Case 1: Dubrova – Response • Ministry of Interior began investigation (arrests) • Putin expresses rhetoric similar to Bush • Chechnya troop reduction canceled; launch of large-scale operation against separatists (Nov) • Moscow’s City Prosecutor’s Office opened an investigation (closed in June 2007) • Legislation: • Restrictions on covering Terrorism – de facto censorship • Amendments to 1998’s “On Combating Terrorism” • Allows for secret burial of slain terrorists

8. Case 1: Dubrova – Analysis • Putin cancels travel but does not engage in actual direct negotiations • Innovative ideas for peaceful end of crisis • Travel to third country • Spare lives of hostage-takers • Lack of distinction between foreign and domestic hostages • New raid style – differs greatly from Budyonnovsk(1995) response

9. Case 1: Dubrova – Analysis • Insufficient preparation for consequences of raid • All hostage-takers killed • Putin’s approval ratings rise • Engagement rises in Chechnya, similar to 1999 • Amendments to terrorism law but not a brand new law

10. Case 2: Beslan – Attack • 9/1: 30 gunmen stormed the Beslan school, taking over 1,000 people hostage • Hostage-takers prepared for gas response • Weapon caches are already inside the school • Automatic bomb detonation • 9/2: small skirmishes, King of Jordan expresses concern while visiting Moscow • 9/3: Bomb explosion leads to Federal forces storming the school, 330 killed, 500-700 wounded

11. Case 2: Beslan – Attack Demands: • Withdrawal of Russian forces from Chechnya • To speak directly with high-ranking officials in the Russian government • Release of 24 militants arrested earlier in the summer

12. Case 2: Beslan – Response • Two to four different headquarters during the crisis • Chain of command is unclear • Lack of communication between various agencies • Lack of sufficient medical responders after the raid • Putin & other state that the country is under attack (reiterating US War on Terror themes)

13. Case 2: Beslan – Response • Putin calls for several reforms: • election of federal governors by local legislative assemblies based upon recommendations from the President • creation of a public chamber for dialogue, and addressed issues of living standards in the North Caucasus, • creating the Special Federal Commission on the North Caucasus. • introduction a system of proportional representation in state Duma elections

14. Case 2: Beslan – Response • Heighten security in Moscow • Rounding up of undocumented residents in Moscow • Duma reviewed a number of new counterterrorism measures • In 2006, new Russian Federal law “On Fighting Terrorism” which takes the much reformed 1998 law and adds a few new measures including duty reallocation • Three reports on what happened at Beslan: • Kesayev Report in 2005 (Duma report) • Savelyev Report in 2006 (explosives expert) • Torshin Report in 2006 (Deputy Federation Council)

15. Case 2: Beslan – Analysis • Continued ties to international struggle against terrorism • Lead to a great deal of reforms • Most investigated crisis of the various hostage crises on the Russian Federation

16. Beslan vs. Dubrovka • Negligence and/or corruption lead to crisis • Increase chaos and confusion is leadership • Putin does not engage directly • Willing to use guns versus a gas • High loss of life • Few hostage-takers survive • Still unclear what triggered the explosion inside the school

17. Emerging Patterns • Use of force to resolve hostage crisis • Attempts at different tactics • Hostage-takers killed on-site • Tolerance for collateral damage/loss of life • Demands are never seriously considered • Crisis gave urgency to legal reform • International sympathy and part of the bigger “crisis” (fight against Al Qaeda) • Increase in approval ratings due to “strong” response

18. Conclusions • Response seems to be a variation on the same thing (use of force) • Tactical: • Increasing chaos and lack of coordination • Policy: • Some counterterrorism reform has gone through natural progressions • Most reforms are made urgent by the crisis • Leadership has support to for these reforms right after a crisis