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Introduction

Introduction. Trends in global cocoa production Trends in global cocoa consumption Using the resulting supply/demand balances, international cocoa prices. 3,500. 3,000. 2,500. 2,000. '000 mt. 1,500. 1,000. 500. 0. 1900/01. 1910/11. 1920/21. 1930/31. 1940/41. 1950/51. 1960/61.

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Introduction

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  1. Introduction • Trends in global cocoa production • Trends in global cocoa consumption • Using the resulting supply/demand balances, international cocoa prices

  2. 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 '000 mt 1,500 1,000 500 0 1900/01 1910/11 1920/21 1930/31 1940/41 1950/51 1960/61 1970/71 1980/81 1990/91 World Cocoa Production, 1900/01-1999/00

  3. Share of World Cocoa Production by Country, 1999/00

  4. 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 '000 tonnes 600 400 200 0 1975/76 1978/79 1981/82 1984/85 1987/88 1990/91 1993/94 1996/97 1999/00 Production Trend Crop Côte d'Ivoire — Cocoa Production, 1975/76-1999/00

  5. 500 450 400 350 300 '000 tonnes 250 200 150 100 50 0 1975/76 1978/79 1981/82 1984/85 1987/88 1990/91 1993/94 1996/97 1999/00 Production Trend Crop Ghana — Cocoa Production, 1975/76-1999/00

  6. 400 350 300 250 '000 tonnes 200 150 100 50 0 1975/76 1978/79 1981/82 1984/85 1987/88 1990/91 1993/94 1996/97 1999/00 Production Trend Crop Indonesia — Cocoa Production, 1975/76-1999/00

  7. 450 400 350 300 250 '000 tonnes 200 150 100 50 0 1975/76 1978/79 1981/82 1984/85 1987/88 1990/91 1993/94 1996/97 Production Trend Crop Brazil — Cocoa Production, 1975/76-1999/00 1999/00

  8. 250 200 150 '000 tonnes 100 50 0 1975/76 1978/79 1981/82 1984/85 1987/88 1990/91 1993/94 1996/97 1999/00 Production Trend Crop Nigeria — Cocoa Production, 1975/76-1999/00

  9. 160 140 120 100 80 '000 tonnes 60 40 20 0 1975/76 1978/79 1981/82 1984/85 1987/88 1990/91 1993/94 1996/97 1999/00 Production Trend Crop Cameroon — Cocoa Production, 1975/76-1999/00

  10. Malaysia — Cocoa Production, 1975/76-1999/00 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1975/76 1978/79 1981/82 1984/85 1987/88 1990/91 1993/94 1996/97 1999/00 Trend Crop Production

  11. 140 120 100 80 '000 tonnes 60 40 20 0 1975/76 1978/79 1981/82 1984/85 1987/88 1990/91 1993/94 1996/97 Ecuador Trend Crop Ecuador — Cocoa Production, 1975/76-1999/00 1999/00

  12. Summary • Global cocoa production is highly concentrated • Significant expansion limited to the three largest producers • Continued concentration in production therefore likely • Resulting in increased risk to global supply • The threat from cocoa pests and diseases is increasing

  13. 3,000 6% 2,500 5% 2,000 4% Consumption ('000 mt) Demand Growth (%) 1,500 3% 1,000 2% 500 1% 0 0% 1947/48 1954/55 1961/62 1968/69 1975/76 1982/83 1989/90 1996/97 Consumption 10 Year Average Growth Rate Consumption trend Growth in Global Cocoa Consumption 1947/48-1998/99

  14. 7 6 Belgium 5 Switzerland 4 Austria Cocoa consumption per capita (kg) UK 3 New Zealand USA 2 Bulgaria Canada 1 Finland Japan South Korea 0 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 GNP per capita (US$) Per Capita Cocoa Consumption versus GNP per capita

  15. Cocoa Consumption by Region, 1997/98

  16. Estimated Per Capita Cocoa Consumption, 1997/98

  17. Growth in Regional Cocoa Consumption, 1981/82-1997/98

  18. Consumption Summary • Consumption grown rapidly - rising incomes and populations • Growth mainly from the major markets of W. Europe and N. America • Increased impetus for growth from emerging markets • Economic crises slowed growth in these regions but long term prospects bright • Chinese demand growth good potential, but only 180 million people have adequate income • Russia - large potential, although the macroeconomic situation uncertain • Brazil is increasing consumption

  19. 250 4,500 200 4,000 150 3,500 100 3,000 50 2,500 Production/Consumption ('000 mt) Surplus/Deficit ('000 mt) 0 2,000 -50 1,500 -100 1,000 -150 500 -200 0 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 Surplus/Deficit Production Consumption Supply-Demand Balance Forecasts to 2010 Assuming Demand Growth of 3% per Annum

  20. 2,500 60% 2,000 50% 1,500 40% Stock:Grind Ratio Price (US$ per mt) 1,000 30% 500 20% 0 10% 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 Stock:Grind Ratio Price Forecasts of Price and the Stock-Grind Ratio to 2010 Assuming Demand Growth of 3% per Annum

  21. ORAC Units per 100g Dark Chocolate 13,120 Milk Chocolate 6,740 Prunes 5,770 Broccoli 890 Note: ORAC = Oxygen Radical Absorbance Capacity Source: USDA and Journal of American Chemical Society Antioxidant Foods

  22. 250 5,000 200 4,500 150 4,000 100 3,500 50 3,000 Production/Consumption ('000 Surplus/Deficit ('000 mt) 0 2,500 -50 2,000 -100 1,500 -150 1,000 -200 500 mt) -250 0 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 Surplus/Deficit Production Consumption Supply-Demand Balance Forecasts to 2010 Assuming Demand Growth of 4.5% per Annum

  23. 3,000 60% 2,500 50% 2,000 40% 1,500 30% Price (US$ per mt) 1,000 20% 500 10% 0 0% 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 Stock:Grind Ratio Price Forecasts of Price and the Stock-Grind Ratio to 2010 Assuming Demand Growth of 4.5% per Annum Stock:Grind Ratio

  24. 225 3,500 150 3,000 75 2,500 Production/Consumption ('000 0 2,000 Surplus/Deficit ('000 mt) -75 1,500 -150 1,000 mt) -225 500 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 Surplus/Deficit Production Consumption Supply-Demand Balance Forecasts to 2010 Assuming Demand Growth of 1.5% per Annum

  25. 1,600 60% 1,400 50% 1,200 40% 1,000 30% Price (US$ per mt) 800 20% 600 10% 400 0% 1998/99 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 Stock:Grind Ratio Price Forecasts of Price and the Stock-Grind Ratio to 2010 Assuming Demand Growth of 1.5% per Annum Stock:Grind Ratio

  26. Outlook Summary • 3% growth: relatively balanced supply-demand outlook after 1999/00. Prices reach $1,979/tonne by 2010. • 4.5% growth: four years of deficit follow the 1999/00 crop. Prices reach $2,562/tonne by 2010. • 1.5% growth: surplus continues into 2000/01 after which low prices curtail production leading to 3 years deficit. Prices reach $1,466/ tonne by 2010.

  27. For More details check • http://www.treecrops.org/crops/cocoaproductionreport_files/frame.htm

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