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2011 edition of the ‘Taxation Trends’ report  Marco Fantini Head of Section « Quantitative analysis of taxation «  DG

2011 edition of the ‘Taxation Trends’ report  Marco Fantini Head of Section « Quantitative analysis of taxation «  DG TAXUD. The impact of the crisis on GDP growth. -5.3%. -8.2%. -5.2%. -13.9%. -18%. -3.9%. -14.7%. -7.6%. -4.9%. 1.7%. -2.8%. -4.7%. -4.1%. -4.8%. -2.6%. -3.9%.

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2011 edition of the ‘Taxation Trends’ report  Marco Fantini Head of Section « Quantitative analysis of taxation «  DG

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  1. 2011 edition of the ‘Taxation Trends’ report  Marco Fantini Head of Section « Quantitative analysis of taxation «  DG TAXUD

  2. The impact of the crisis on GDP growth

  3. -5.3% -8.2% -5.2% -13.9% -18% -3.9% -14.7% -7.6% -4.9% 1.7% -2.8% -4.7% -4.1% -4.8% -2.6% -3.9% -6.7% -7.1% -5% -8.1% -4.9% -3.7% -2.3% -2.5% -3.7% -1.7% -1.9%

  4. Top 6 and bottom 6 growth rates

  5. The impact of the crisis on public finances

  6. Change in budget balance (2008-2009) Average revenue drop: 0.6% of GDP Average expenditure increase: 4% of GDP

  7. Trends in the overall tax ratio 2000-2009, in % of GDP Drop: 3.8 %

  8. Excluding social security contributions, the revenue drop looks even stronger Drop: 6.8%

  9. Time trend for tax ratio, actual and adjusted for the cycle

  10. The tax policy reaction

  11. Budgetary impact of tax measures by type of measure, 2009 Tax-cutting measures Revenue-raising measures

  12. 25% 22% 25% 20% 21% 19% 19% 21.5% 15% 22% -2.8% 21% 19% 19% 19% 19.6% 20% 25% 19% 20% 20% 20% 16% 19% 20% 15% 15% 18%

  13. 25% 23% 25% 20% 21% 19% 21% 21% 17.5% 22% -2.8% 21% 19% 20% 19% 19.6% 20% 25% 24% 20% 20% 20% 18% 23% 21% 15% 15% 18%

  14. 25% 23% 25% 20% 22% 19% 21% 21% 20% 23% -2.8% 21% 19% 20% 20% 19.6% 20% 25% 24% 20% 20% 20% 18% 23% 23% 15% 15% 18%

  15. VAT standard rates have been hiked strongly as a result of the crisis Revenue data stop here

  16. Substantial recourse to excise duties to raise revenue

  17. Crisis has not reversed, but possibly slowed, the steep decline in corporate tax rates Development of statutory CIT rate (adj.)

  18. The average decline in PIT rates has stopped Note: Including local taxes and surcharges

  19. Trend to reduce labour taxes for low-income earners continuesTax wedge on labour for worker at 2/3 of average earnings

  20. Trends in environmental tax revenues,2000-2009, % of GDP

  21. Tax revenue per unit of energy used, deflated2000-2009, % of GDP

  22. Summing up REVENUES • Sharp decline in tax revenues in 2009, due to recession • To fight the recession, Member States relied more on expenditure increases than tax cuts, • … but even at the height of the crisis, a number of Member States were able to introduce tax cuts, and these focussed on labour taxes • Energy tax revenues and ITRs on Energy up in 2009, breaking long trend RATES • Clear trend towards increases in indirect taxes, right up to present • Corporate tax rates seem to be stabilising • Average top PIT rates pick up in euro area, decline slightly in EU average

  23. Additional information • The full report and a booklet with the main results are available at the following address: • http://ec.europa.eu/taxtrends • Thank you!

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