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Spreading System Dynamics to SMEs by using Generic Structures

Spreading System Dynamics to SMEs by using Generic Structures Katrin Hügel, Lukas Schmid & Marcel Loher Lisbon , 13. July 2010 24th European Conference on Operational Research. Generic Models – Overview. Canonical situation model. Transfer accross fields. Self-contained models.

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Spreading System Dynamics to SMEs by using Generic Structures

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  1. Spreading System Dynamics to SMEs byusingGenericStructures Katrin Hügel, Lukas Schmid & Marcel Loher Lisbon, 13. July 2010 24th European Conference on Operational Research

  2. Generic Models – Overview Canonicalsituation model Transfer accrossfields Self-containedmodels „Ratherthanstressingthesingle-model concept, itappearsthatweshould stress theprocessofmodelingas a continuingcompanionto, andtoolfor, theimprovementofjudgementand human decisionmaking“[ Forrester in System Dynamics Review Vol.1, No.1 1985] • General Insights systemarchtypes Case specificsolutions solve individual problem Transfer withinparticularfield assembledmodels (LEGO) abstractedmicrostructures

  3. Generic Models – pro & contra Validation

  4. Validation – Experienceswith SME Structureverification Experts SME Parameter verification Availabilityofdata model structure Extreme conditions Experts SME, experience? BoundaryAdequacy Availabilityofdata  Dimensional consistency donebymodellers Behaviorreproduction Availabilityofdata model behaviour BehaviorAnomaly Completeness?! BehaviorSensitivity Completeness?! Changedbehaviorprediction Experts SME policyimplications Policysensitivity Experts SME [coretestsForrester/ Senge, 1980]

  5. BenefitsexpectedfromGeneric Models Main structuresofthe model will bevalidated in general Every usercontributestesting: approvesconfidenceorimprovesthe model bymodifications Research on detailscontributestothegreater model Higher comparabilityoffindingsfacilitatesscientificdiscourse Acceptenceofmodelsbyscientificproof Facilitatesimplementationofnewfindings in practicaluse ? FEASEBILITY

  6. Examplefrom Engineering: ActivatedSludgeProcess

  7. ActivatedSludge Models: Development variousmodellingapproaches International Organisation WaterPolution Research & Controllestablished a Task Group on Mathematical Modelling for Design and Operation ofactivatedsludgeprocesses 1987 ActivatedSludge Model (ASM) No.1 published ASM No. 2 published, containing an additional process (biologicalphosphorusremoval) ASM No. 3 published, revisedversionof ASM1 2005 Additional Task Group on Good Modelling Practice (GMP), takes care for approriate use of ASM in professional life

  8. ActivatedSludge Model 3: Tab1. Stoichiometricmatrixandcompositionmatrixof ASM3 Tab2. Kinetic rate expressionsof ASM3 Tab 3. Typicalvaluesofkineticparameters (21 parametersprovidedasexamples) Tab 4. Typicalstoichiometricandcompositionparameters (15 parametersprovidedasexamples)

  9. Conclusiones & Prospects • severalfindingsargueforfeasebilityofgenericmodels • genericmodelingdoes not conpromisefocus on modelingprocess • highexpectationsjustify time andeffort Lead organisationequallyinterested in researchandpracticalimplementationofmodels • solveproblems, compromising SD application in real life • enhenceeffectiveness & efficiencyofresearch • enablesdiscoursebetweenresearchand real lifeapplication Preconditions: • Task groupconsistingofrespectableresearchers • Realisticexpectationsconsidering time table (5-15 a) andvalueofthe model

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