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High Level Workshop Leadership in Modern Statistical Systems

High Level Workshop Leadership in Modern Statistical Systems. Tim Holt United Kingdom. Dissemination and Release of Statistics. Very Important topic FP 1-4 Providing statistics for all users Building trust in the statistics Building trust in the NSS Very important topic

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High Level Workshop Leadership in Modern Statistical Systems

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  1. High Level WorkshopLeadership in Modern Statistical Systems Tim Holt United Kingdom

  2. Dissemination and Release of Statistics • Very Important topic • FP 1-4 • Providing statistics for all users • Building trust in the statistics • Building trust in the NSS • Very important topic • The most important point of contact with the whole society

  3. Dissemination and Release of Statistics • Providing a high quality service to all users • Disseminating information not just numbers • Promoting the identity of the NSI • Confirming the professional independence of the NSS

  4. Dissemination and Release of Statistics • Release Process • Impact of Release Calendar • Analysis, Commentary and Storytelling • Revisions and Errors • Focus on strategic aims

  5. Release Process • Pre-announced, predictable: date and time • Orderly release but with no undue delay • Length of pre-announcement depends on output • Publish not just calendar but general criteria • Release calendar • Creates time pressure on production process • Market moving data • Press briefing • Key objective: separate statistical release from policy comment

  6. Impact of Release Calendar • Predictability • Release timing and process in public domain before content is known • Pre-announcement prevents pressure • Public knowledge of criteria prevents pressure • Reinforces professional independence • Gives framework for dealing with issues that may arise

  7. Pre-Release Access • Fundamental Principle 1: statistics made available on an impartial basis • Ideal: No pre-release access • Problem: undermines public confidence in the professional independence of the NSI • In practice many countries provide some pre-release access to the relevant minister and some key officials • For a short time • For a small number of named people • For key outputs • All arrangements to be in public domain: transparency

  8. Pre-release access: the justification • Ministers are accountable and need to respond to questions when release occurs • Possible need for executive action when release is made • Special cases • Monetary Policy Committee • Upgrade of public benefits etc • NB General issue may be more of a problem in line ministries

  9. Presentation and Commentary • Numbers are not enough: tables, graphs, text • Results have to be accessible and understandable for all users • User community has diverse expertise

  10. Commentary • Need textual commentary to highlight key findings • Helps journalists and commentators • Reinforces professional independence • Supports informed debate • Prevents mis-interpretation • Prevents over-interpretation • Note: commentary on statistical interpretation not policy implications • Potential problem in line ministries (role for Code of Practice) • Needs communication and presentational skills

  11. Analysis and Storytelling • Secondary analyses that go beyond regular outputs • May need a different vehicle (e.g. research findings or economic trends or social trends) • Brings out key features of the data • Analysis leads to better understanding of data quality • Can draw attention to aspects of society that are not attracting attention – helps to shape public debate • Reinforces professional independence • Requires different statistical and presentational skills • Question: what is your experience?

  12. Regular Revisions • Final figures after ‘provisional figures’ release • Often good reasons (more or better data etc) • Need to explain reasons regularly – not when there is an unexpected change - transparency

  13. Irregular but Predictable Revisions • E.g. change in methodology or new international standards • Inform users in advance so no surprises • Explain difference from previous practice – transparency • In extreme cases (e.g. new SNA) may need to issue briefing papers before figures are known to highlight key differences and help users understand new presentation • Revise previous outputs to present consistent time series • Question: What is your experience – good or bad?

  14. Mistakes • Errors in statistical work that has led to false figures. • Need to inform all users – ministers and others as quickly as possible. • Also National Statistics Commission • Crisis management – acknowledge the problem • Establish a process and timetable to make corrections if reasons are understood • Or establish an inquiry process to investigate what has gone wrong – use external experts for input – must create credibility in the inquiry process. • Seek to reassert professional credibility of NSI through reaction • Question of learning not blaming • Are there lessons for the whole NSI? • Question: what is your experience?

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